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How Harvey Norman tells you a recession is coming; Check the interest free offers.
Topic Started: 5 May 2012, 12:21 PM (3,871 Views)
Sydneyite
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genX
5 May 2012, 04:42 PM
Don't you get tired of hiding in other people's skirt tails?
Look - I know it's hard having an error pointed out, but why don't you just take it on the chin?
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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peter fraser
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Gerry owns space and he leases it out. A lot of retail is really rental space in disguise.

Who owns the brand? Who collects the franchise fees?

I don't claim to have knowledge of the inner workings of HN, but if you visit any superstore you will find one retailer selling electricals, one with computers, and one selling furniture - it may be fragmented further, I'm not sure. The electrical retailer in my town may not be the electrical retailer in your town.

No, GDP growth. But w/e.

Sorry - my error. I don't think I'm able to help you there, not my area of knowledge. I watch the numbers, but that's all.

Best not to count on the market doing anything, whether that is going up or down. I am expecting[1] prices to go down by 15-30% by one of two ways. Either in nominal terms, or in real terms (relative to my wages).

If we get caught in the same liquidity trap as the rest of the developed world, then it will be in nominal terms.

If the RBA and the FedGov choose to inflate our debts away, then it will be in real terms.

The former would be better for the future of Australia. Short term pain, relatively quick recovery. The latter will be extremely destructive for the future of Australia, and so I give it better than 2 to 1 odds that the current crop of muppets in Canberra and Sydney will choose it, since they only care about the current election cycle and lining their own pockets.

I also expect rents to climb. At some point there will be a convergence of those two trends and it will be an obvious entry point for myself (roughly a 1.2 ratio of mortgage to rent on a 80% LVR is my entry point, obviously prefer parity :lol ).

[1] Expecting, but not counting on.

Yes, anything can happen. I've worked hard to put myself in a position where I can move either way. It's been a game of chess for some time, so we shall see what eventuates. People in other countries didn't have that time to prepare, and I think that will make a difference for many.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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stinkbug
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During downturns is exactly when I try to make major purchases, because there is more room to negotiate.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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genX
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stinkbug
5 May 2012, 06:08 PM
During downturns is exactly when I try to make major purchases, because there is more room to negotiate.
:tu: best suggestion yet. Mmmmm electronics ....
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genX
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Sydneyite
5 May 2012, 05:32 PM
Look - I know it's hard having an error pointed out, but why don't you just take it on the chin?
Wow, you just keep doubling down on stupid don't you. Go on, don't let me stop you.
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genX
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I don't claim to have knowledge of the inner workings of HN, but if you visit any superstore you will find one retailer selling electricals, one with computers, and one selling furniture - it may be fragmented further, I'm not sure. The electrical retailer in my town may not be the electrical retailer in your town.

They are the franchisees. They pay franchise fees to sell under the HN brand and share in the group marketing. As the franchise fees are a proportion of sales, HN corporate has been hurting a lot recently. The group marketing is based on the current strategy which in turn is based on forward sales projections. All sales go through the HN database/reporting system so HN corporate can see category,margins, and volume of sales. I don't know if corporate has group procurement, but it would be fairly likely that it does, so the franchisees get access to volume discounts when purchasing their inventory.

Yes, anything can happen. I've worked hard to put myself in a position where I can move either way. It's been a game of chess for some time, so we shall see what eventuates. People in other countries didn't have that time to prepare, and I think that will make a difference for many.

I think they had time, there were smart people in the US doing the numbers as early as 2004 and not liking what they saw. What they didn't have was the experience of watching 3 other countries housing/finance sector collapse like we do. Still, many still deny it could ever happen here.
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Trojan
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stinkbug
5 May 2012, 06:08 PM
During downturns is exactly when I try to make major purchases, because there is more room to negotiate.
Agreed. We bought our big family car in 2008 and no one was interested it.
It was 18 months old and we bought it for exactly half of its new RRP
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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stinkbug
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Trojan
5 May 2012, 07:14 PM
Agreed. We bought our big family car in 2008 and no one was interested it.
It was 18 months old and we bought it for exactly half of its new RRP
Well done, sounds like a good catch there.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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miw
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Trojan
5 May 2012, 07:14 PM
Agreed. We bought our big family car in 2008 and no one was interested it.
It was 18 months old and we bought it for exactly half of its new RRP
Unintended benefit of having a mortgage. You can't afford a new car so you don't get ripped off. :D
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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HSRboy
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genX
5 May 2012, 12:21 PM
It could be that HN is struggling against internet sales, JB HiFi, Good Guys

Harvey Norman - 50 Months Interest Free
There is nothing stopping Harvey from launching their own online store based in Singapore where Harvey has PHYSICAL stores.

Shipping costs to AUS would be lower than from USA or England. :tu:
Barnaby Joyce - Indians owning Coal mines in AUS is good, Chinese owning a cotton farm in AUS is bad

Aussie Home Sales at 11-year low: http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052702304459804577282401287187084-lMyQjAxMTAyMDEwNjExNDYyWj.html
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