This is just plain stupid. It not like interest payments are all going down the drain. If you don't pay interest you pay rent. If you have an IP you receive rent. Either way, you will NEVER loose 7%.
I used to read Money Morning regularly and I still do at times but after reading it for about two years I think they get it wrong more than they get it right on a macro level. ( Although a lot of their investment tips have ben pretty good)
The thing dooms day sayers all have in common is that they are almost always wrong.
The reality is that most of us get it wrong most of the time including bulls.
The reality is that most of us get it wrong most of the time including bulls.
Except for Shadow, he's at 80-90% correct.
I dont claim to know where house prices are heading. Thats impossible, no one does. I can only guess. What we can do is look at facts and hopefully get an indication of where it may head.
Articles like this one on the other hand is only there because someone has a desire for house prices to go a certain way and tries to just to justify that position by making stuff up.
And the facts are that sofar Shadow would have been correct a hell of a lot more than Money Morning.
OK I'm happy to use the ABS stats as a benchmark for actual facts, even though their data is laggy and excludes units/semi's (25% of the Sydney housing market for example), it's good for after the fact discussions.
* ABS says Melbourne index peaked at 177.2 during June quarter 2010, currently at 162.7, = an 8.2% decline from peak to now over 21 months. So a bit more that the 7% I originally stated, but not 10% as you have claimed. * ABS says Sydney index peaked at 117.3 during June quarter 2010, currently at 111, = an 5.4% decline from peak to now over 21 months. * ABS says National capital city weighted average index peaked at 149.8 in June quarter 2010, currently at 140.6, = 6.1% decline from peak over 21 months (as Strindberg correctly states).
I still expect the next ABS print to be flat to positive, especially for Sydney, as their data catches up with the other provides who mostly showed gains over the same period.
You can all sook as much as you want - real house prices have fallen 10% since their June 2010 peak -
Carry on like children all you want - 10% down since peak in 2010.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but I think you've been reading too much Steve Keen.
Steve had a blog out this week claiming prices were down 10%.
I assume you didn't read past the headline, and didn't realise Steve had removed the inflation component from house prices in order to get his 10%.
This are REAL HOUSE PRICES - yes, I read the article, house prices down 10% - but wait, these stats are from several months ago due to the ABS lag - according to the major indices things could well be down another 2% already as the rate of price falls INCREASES - yeeeeeeeeeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!!
Thats right - adjusted for inflation its probably more like 12% already - at this rate the trend looks like it will be 40% before the end of the year - OH OH !!
Hope you al brought some sauce and a napkin for your humble pie - wouldn't want to spill any of it on yourselves and get a nasty stain !!
I have a feeling that the June release is going to see a whole lot of red capes around here as the bears put on their matador outfits for a bit of good old bull stabbing - might need to get some wagons to help drag out the carcasses as well - ohhhhhh - its been fun for us at least, and an education fro you lot Im sure.
10% a year isn't really my idea of a slow burn. In 4-5 years time houses will be half! Japan took about 15 years.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
This are REAL HOUSE PRICES - yes, I read the article, house prices down 10% - but wait, these stats are from several months ago due to the ABS lag - according to the major indices things could well be down another 2% already as the rate of price falls INCREASES - yeeeeeeeeeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!!
Thats right - adjusted for inflation its probably more like 12% already - at this rate the trend looks like it will be 40% before the end of the year - OH OH !!
Hope you al brought some sauce and a napkin for your humble pie - wouldn't want to spill any of it on yourselves and get a nasty stain !!
I have a feeling that the June release is going to see a whole lot of red capes around here as the bears put on their matador outfits for a bit of good old bull stabbing - might need to get some wagons to help drag out the carcasses as well - ohhhhhh - its been fun for us at least, and an education fro you lot Im sure.
You are just trolling now. Fact is when you wrote this:
audus "the wrong"
According to the ABS statistics, the ONLY independent stat available prices are down 10%.
you were in fact just making shit up. According to ABS house prices are down 6.1% from the peak, not 10%.
So you want to use CPI adjusted prices now? Well go for your life, but I don't care about CPI adjusted prices. I care about nominal prices - ie the actual $$$ I get or have to pay if I sell or buy property. I suppose you think that buying a house or investing in property in the early 70s would have been a bad idea because "real" house price fell for a decade?? Do you think that by the way? I'd love to hear your answer!
Hi Kris, good to see your still out and about. I really don't know how you got it so wrong on housing either, after all I did tell you almost every day that you were wrong.
In fact you are still wrong, but you can take some comfort that there is or will be falls across the board to differing degrees. Unless of course if China falls over, then we will have that armegeddon you predicted, but you're a China bull as I recall.
I think that you were right to turn off the comments on your site, the comments were becoming caustic, which isn't what anyone wants.
I see that gold and silver aren't doing too well - it's not been a great time for you lately, has it? Things will get better, investors will drift back into equities, and they will need investment advice, so just be patient during this transitional phase.
Best regards....
Your old mate Peter.
+1 amigo
Long term followers of Kris's work will also understand that in order for him to be proven correct prices must fall by 40% from 2008 medians.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy