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Steve Keen ... Australian House Prices Down 10% From Peak; The odds are that the rate of decline will accelerate in the next year
Topic Started: 2 May 2012, 12:41 PM (4,031 Views)
Strindberg
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Ben D
2 May 2012, 02:40 PM
Bullshit. It's not misleading at all. It may be personally offensive to you, but it is not misleading.
It is totally misleading. When the ASX200 is reported as having fallen 35% from its peak no one except a fool will imagine that the writer has removed inflation from the change. Likewise with a reported change in the price of gold. You would get quite the wrong message if you imagine that reports of price changes have always had CPI removed from the actual price changes (which is what is meant by real terms).

The actual price fall, according the ABS, is 6.1% not a fictitious 10%.

You sound angry. Is Steve your pin-up boy? Do you have his picture on your bedroom walls?
Edited by Strindberg, 2 May 2012, 02:54 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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earthsta
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Sydneyite
2 May 2012, 02:23 PM
He may explain it in the article, but his headline is mis-leading and designed to paint the most negative picture possible.
No one else in the media does that, do they :re:
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Ben D
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Strindberg
2 May 2012, 02:49 PM
It is totally misleading. When the ASX200 is reported as having fallen 35% from its peak no one except a fool will imagine that the writer has removed inflation from the change. Likewise with a reported change in the price of gold. You would get quite the wrong message if you imagine that reports of price changes have always had CPI removed (which is what is meant by real terms).

You sound angry. Is Steve your pin-up boy? Do you have his picture on your bedroom walls?
It's not misleading because he talks about that very point in that very article. The headline is about the content of the article.

Yes I am angry. But not as angry as I would be if I bought a house in June 2010.
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Shadow
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Mahamed
2 May 2012, 12:41 PM
The odds are that the rate of decline will accelerate in the next year
I expect this will be another bad call from Steve, just like all his others...

Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions

01 - In 2006, Keen said we may already be in a recession
02 - In 2006, Keen said the Australian Debt/GDP ratio would exceed 160% by 2007
03 - In 2006, Keen said Australia will be in recession long before our Debt/GDP ratio falls
04 - In 2008, Keen said interest rates would be at 2% by 2009, and ZIRP by 2010
05 - In 2008, Keen said we would have double digit unemployment (up to 20%)
06 - In 2008, Keen said we would have a severe recession, possibly a depression
07 - In 2008, Keen said house prices would be down 40% within 'a few years'
08 - In 2008, Keen admitted he was hopelessly wrong on house prices after losing a bet with Rory Robertson
09 - in 2008, Keen sold his Sydney home at a cyclical low point, just before prices rose 20%
10 - In 2010, Keen predicted an accelerating rate of decline in Australian house prices
11 - Between 2008 and 2011, Keen claimed the Australian property bubble began in 1964, 1983, and 1988
12 - In 2008, Keen said his biggest regret was not buying property at the start of the property bubble in the 1970s
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Ben D
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Shadow
2 May 2012, 02:56 PM
I expect this will be another bad call from Steve, just like all his others...
Maybe you should read 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf'?
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Shadow
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Ben D
2 May 2012, 02:58 PM
Maybe you should read 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf'?
Good analogy!

Yes, Steve has been crying wolf about the big property crash for so long that nobody believes him any more.

He is becoming obsolete. He doesn't even make it into the mainstream media these days after his 2008 fiasco.

No doubt he will get it right some day, like the proverbial stopped clock.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Strindberg
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What Keen's piece does do, is explain why Macrobusiness last year stopped presenting their chart comparing Oz falls with US falls. What they did was find short term sections in each of the US and OZ (RP Data rather than ABS - it didn't give the desire picture with ABS figures) house price time charts, transpose one of them by 5 years or so and change the scales to make the slopes match. This made them all wet their knickers with glee and fill them with confidence that Oz was going the same way as the US. They ceased presenting that chart in November despite constant members' pleas for the chart to be updated. They even repeated their pleas this week.
We now know, thanks to Keen using the ABS data, why they stopped producing the chart in November. The Oz slope no longer follows the US slope. To overcome that little detail Keen has now transposed the Japanese chart by 20 odd years and found a correlation of sorts.

I suggest there is better correlation between the price of lipstick in Nigeria and the murder rate of English vicars.

Time transposing time series charts and changing the scales in this manner to find correlation is a clear case of:

APOPHENIA

It is a common disease of bears.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Ben D
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Shadow
2 May 2012, 03:07 PM
Good analogy!

Yes, Steve has been crying wolf about the big property crash for so long that nobody believes him any more.

He is becoming obsolete. He doesn't even make it into the mainstream media these days after his 2008 fiasco.

No doubt he will get it right some day, like the proverbial stopped clock.
Your entire post is made up of your somewhat obsessive opinion of Steve Keen, but you write it like you are stating facts; which you are not.

I imagine it is this tendency to believe your own bullshit that keeps you holding onto the now blatantly untenable position of being bullish on Australian house prices.
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Shadow
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Ben D
2 May 2012, 03:24 PM
Your entire post is made up of your somewhat obsessive opinion of Steve Keen, but you write it like you are stating facts; which you are not.
If you're referring to my list of Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions, you will note that each of them is a link to the source, so readers can verify that the list is in fact quite accurate.

Quote:
 
I imagine it is this tendency to believe your own bullshit that keeps you holding onto the now blatantly untenable position of being bullish on Australian house prices.
I imagine you were saying the same in 2008 before house prices rose another 20%...
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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raveswei
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Strindberg
2 May 2012, 02:37 PM
The odds are that the rate of decline will accelerate in the next year.....
The normally widely reported Louis Christopher seems to disagree. He writes in this week's mail:




There's a unusual silence at MB re Chris's latest email.[/quote]louis cannot get right current "vacancy rate" but somehow we should belive his future predictions?
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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