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ABS 6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, March 2012; National House Prices Fall 1.1% in Q1 2012
Topic Started: 1 May 2012, 12:32 PM (4,654 Views)
raveswei
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Elastic
1 May 2012, 01:18 PM
Does anyone know if the ABS figures are seasonally adjusted?
they are not
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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raveswei
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NotFooled
1 May 2012, 01:26 PM
Well and truly crashing now :pop:
I don't see any ecstatic bears. Oh wait, prices haven't really dropped much relative to the massive gains over the past decade.


[/quote]My US friend said the same thing in 2007, than again in 2008 ...


Quote:
 
If this is what you consider a crash then you're more of a bull than a bear. Hahaha


and you are clearly not bear, not bull but a fool
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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stinkbug
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raveswei
1 May 2012, 03:12 PM
House prices will not recover in a lifetime of the most of Australian property speculators
Hi Rave - this is a good example of what I meant when I said you like to dress opinion up as fact.

Stop lying!
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

davel
1 May 2012, 02:46 PM
No, but you'll need some pretty strong growth at some point and it aint looking too likely...

Whats it at now, ~ $550? So you almost need a doubling in just over 3 1/2 years (allowing you the whole of 2015 also).
It's based on the Residex house price index, which puts Sydney houses at $668K currently.

Average growth of 9-10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 would take house prices close enough to $1M.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Strindberg
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raveswei
1 May 2012, 03:12 PM
US style crash? it took there almost year and a half to fall 10%
Ireland? it took there more than a year to fall 10%
Spain? it took more than a year and and a half to fall 10%


it seems to that we are on the track
ABS 8 cap city index is down 6.1% in the 21 months from peak in June 2010 to March 2012.

Obviously not on the same track as the US, Ireland or Spain.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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davel
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Shadow
1 May 2012, 03:18 PM
davel
1 May 2012, 02:46 PM
No, but you'll need some pretty strong growth at some point and it aint looking too likely...

Whats it at now, ~ $550? So you almost need a doubling in just over 3 1/2 years (allowing you the whole of 2015 also).
It's based on the Residex house price index, which puts Sydney houses at $668K currently.

Average growth of 9-10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 would take house prices close enough to $1M.
Ah OK, thats a better starting point.

Still not gonna see much in 2012, so itll need to be gangbusters 13-15.
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miw
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Does anyone know off the top of their head the definition of "Capital City" for the ABS?

I ask, because I am trying to work out if the ABS numbers for Brisbane include the Gold Coast like some others do. It makes a difference because the Gold Coast is definitely soft compared to Brisbane.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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zaph
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miw
1 May 2012, 04:20 PM
Does anyone know off the top of their head the definition of "Capital City" for the ABS?

I ask, because I am trying to work out if the ABS numbers for Brisbane include the Gold Coast like some others do. It makes a difference because the Gold Coast is definitely soft compared to Brisbane.
99% sure Brisbane does not include the GC
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earthsta
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Shadow
1 May 2012, 03:18 PM
It's based on the Residex house price index, which puts Sydney houses at $668K currently.

Average growth of 9-10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 would take house prices close enough to $1M.
You're prediction was made in Jan 2010. You have another 3 years maximum, 2 years if you adhere to your 4 year timeframe.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
1 May 2012, 04:39 PM
You're prediction was made in Jan 2010. You have another 3 years maximum, 2 years if you adhere to your 4 year timeframe.
The prediction was for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by (an unspecified day in) 2015.

And what type of obsessed psychopath keeps a database of two-year-old screenshots from a dead forum? :re:
Edited by Shadow, 1 May 2012, 04:42 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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