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ABS 6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, March 2012; National House Prices Fall 1.1% in Q1 2012
Topic Started: 1 May 2012, 12:32 PM (4,655 Views)
muzza
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NotFooled
1 May 2012, 01:28 PM
So will you be jumping in and snapping up some properties at the current bargain basement prices?
How about you notfooled ?
I believe that you, like me, are cashed up and ready to go.
I'm going to be keeping my powder dry for a bit longer yet.
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TED BULLPIT
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NotFooled
1 May 2012, 01:26 PM
I don't see any ecstatic bears. Oh wait, prices haven't really dropped much relative to the massive gains over the past decade.

So much for your much vaunted crash, lol :lol

If this is what you consider a crash then you're more of a bull than a bear. Hahaha
You must be the biggest dope on here ;)

You have no idea whats going on at all and will soon be living with all the constant bs you post. :lol

Permanently fooled ;)
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

muzza
1 May 2012, 01:34 PM
How about you notfooled ?
I believe that you, like me, are cashed up and ready to go.
I'm going to be keeping my powder dry for a bit longer yet.
I'm watching a number of areas carefully. Currently prices where I am looking are not moving. I'll wait a bit longer too and see what eventuates.
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earthsta
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Strindberg
1 May 2012, 01:29 PM
Yes, the last time the RBA began an interest rate cutting cycle was in September 2008. The ABS continued to report falling house prices in their next three quarterly releases. It was 11 months later, August 2009, before the ABS reported any house price rises at all. Then - boom.

In the context of the rises of 2009 and 2010, the recent falls are not very significant.

In the 3 years from March 2009 to March 2012, the 8 cap city index has risen 13.6% compared to the CPI rise of 8.0%. Sydney prices have risen 16.1% and Melbourne prices have risen 19.4% in those 3 years. All other cap cities have risen too. The recent falls have not cancelled the rises of 2009 and 2010.
Then we must be in a bubble.
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earthsta
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Sydneyite
1 May 2012, 12:42 PM
Ok - I got that call wrong - the Sydney result surprises me, but that's the data. So we now have a negative quarter (mostly) according to ABS and Residex, and a positive quarter according to APM and RP-Data. Hmmmm.

EDIT: Actually here is what the other providers had for Sydney for Q1: Sydney +1.4% (APM) +1.73% (Residex) +1.2% (RP-Data), so for Sydney ABS is the only one to record price fall for the quarter - quite a difference in the results there.
:lol :lol

Looks like shadow is going to be pushing shit up hill to get the 13% he needs this year for his asinine $1m prediction by 2015 to come to fruition. :bye:
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
1 May 2012, 02:42 PM
:lol :lol

Looks like shadow is going to be pushing shit up hill to get the 13% he needs this year for his asinine $1m prediction by 2015 to come to fruition. :bye:
I don't need any specific figure for this year in order for my 2015 prediction to be correct.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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davel
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No, but you'll need some pretty strong growth at some point and it aint looking too likely...

Whats it at now, ~ $550? So you almost need a doubling in just over 3 1/2 years (allowing you the whole of 2015 also).
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raveswei
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Quote:
 
Ok - I got that call wrong - the Sydney result surprises me, but that's the data. So we now have a negative quarter (mostly) according to ABS and Residex, and a positive quarter according to APM and RP-Data. Hmmmm.


You got this one wrong because you think what you wish

residex data is roughly in line with RPData when seasonaly adjusted, ABS data covers houses only while APM has less credibility left than the average REA

http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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Elastic
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davel
1 May 2012, 02:46 PM
No, but you'll need some pretty strong growth at some point and it aint looking too likely...

Whats it at now, ~ $550? So you almost need a doubling in just over 3 1/2 years (allowing you the whole of 2015 also).
That's nice of you to let him have the whole of 2015.
I think he might need it.
It's looking like one of those rare (10-20%) predictions he gets wrong.
He may need to make about 8 correct predictions now to keep his average up.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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raveswei
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Shadow
1 May 2012, 12:55 PM
Besides... an annual fall of 4-5% is nothing, compared to the gains seen in previous years. Certainly not the crash the bears have been promising.

what bears have been promising?

US style crash? it took there almost year and a half to fall 10%
Ireland? it took there more than a year to fall 10%
Spain? it took more than a year and and a half to fall 10%


it seems to that we are on the track


Quote:
 
Stock markets can fall by that much in a single day.

It also takes a day to recover. House prices will not recover in a lifetime of the most of Australian property speculators
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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