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ABS 6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, March 2012; National House Prices Fall 1.1% in Q1 2012
Topic Started: 1 May 2012, 12:32 PM (4,649 Views)
Admin
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ABS Data: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6416.0Main+Features1Mar%202012?OpenDocument

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Established house prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities - Quarterly % change
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Established house prices, Quarterly % change - March quarter 2011
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MARCH KEY POINTS

ESTABLISHED HOUSE PRICES

Quarterly Changes

Preliminary estimates show the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.1% in the March quarter 2012.
The capital city indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.2%), Sydney (-1.8%), Adelaide (-0.9%) and Hobart (-2.7%) and rose in Perth (+1.1%), Brisbane (+0.4%), Canberra (+1.2%) and Darwin (+4.4%).

Annual Changes (March Quarter 2011 to March Quarter 2012)

Preliminary estimates show that the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 4.5% in the year to the March quarter 2012.
Annually, house prices fell in Hobart (-6.7%), Melbourne (-6.6%), Sydney (-4.6%), Adelaide (-3.8%), Brisbane (-3.7%), Perth (-1.7%), and Canberra (-0.5%) and rose in Darwin (+3.5%).
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Edited by Admin, 1 May 2012, 12:32 PM.
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Sydneyite
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Ok - I got that call wrong - the Sydney result surprises me, but that's the data. So we now have a negative quarter (mostly) according to ABS and Residex, and a positive quarter according to APM and RP-Data. Hmmmm.

EDIT: Actually here is what the other providers had for Sydney for Q1: Sydney +1.4% (APM) +1.73% (Residex) +1.2% (RP-Data), so for Sydney ABS is the only one to record price fall for the quarter - quite a difference in the results there.
Edited by Sydneyite, 1 May 2012, 01:03 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Sydneyite
1 May 2012, 12:42 PM
Ok - I got that call wrong - the Sydney result surprises me, but that's the data. So we now have a negative quarter (mostly) according to ABS and Residex, and a positive quarter according to APM and RP-Data. Hmmmm.

EDIT: Actually here is what the other providers had for Sydney for Q1: Sydney +1.4% (APM) +1.73% (Residex) +1.2% (RP-Data), so for Sydney ABS is the only one to record price fall for the quarter - quite a different in the results there.
ABS has traditionally been slower to react to changes in market direction. The preliminary ABS results often show prices still rising when the other indices are beginning to show falls, and vice versa. The ABS results are always revised twice, over each of the following two quarters, as more data comes in. Also there is the fact that ABS does not cover units/townhouses - only freestanding houses.

Besides... an annual fall of 4-5% is nothing, compared to the gains seen in previous years. Certainly not the crash the bears have been promising.

Stock markets can fall by that much in a single day.
Edited by Shadow, 1 May 2012, 12:58 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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TED BULLPIT
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The real annaul falls for most states is two to three times the amounts quoted. ;)

Well and truly crashing now :pop:
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Elastic
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Does anyone know if the ABS figures are seasonally adjusted?
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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hoofarted
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"Besides... an annual fall of 4-5% is nothing, compared to the gains seen in previous years."

lolz
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

TED BULLPIT
1 May 2012, 01:12 PM


Well and truly crashing now :pop:
I don't see any ecstatic bears. Oh wait, prices haven't really dropped much relative to the massive gains over the past decade.

So much for your much vaunted crash, lol :lol

If this is what you consider a crash then you're more of a bull than a bear. Hahaha
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

hoofarted
1 May 2012, 01:22 PM
"Besides... an annual fall of 4-5% is nothing, compared to the gains seen in previous years."

lolz
So will you be jumping in and snapping up some properties at the current bargain basement prices?
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Strindberg
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Shadow
1 May 2012, 12:55 PM
ABS has traditionally been slower to react to changes in market direction.
Yes, the last time the RBA began an interest rate cutting cycle was in September 2008. The ABS continued to report falling house prices in their next three quarterly releases. It was 11 months later, August 2009, before the ABS reported any house price rises at all. Then - boom.

In the context of the rises of 2009 and 2010, the recent falls are not very significant.

In the 3 years from March 2009 to March 2012, the 8 cap city index has risen 13.6% compared to the CPI rise of 8.0%. Sydney prices have risen 16.1% and Melbourne prices have risen 19.4% in those 3 years. All other cap cities have risen too. The recent falls have not cancelled the rises of 2009 and 2010.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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hoofarted
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NotFooled
1 May 2012, 01:28 PM
So will you be jumping in and snapping up some properties at the current bargain basement prices?
No. I will be buying when it make sense. Besides, who say this is the "bargain basement"?
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