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RPData: Capital city house prices fell by 0.8% in April; House prices down in April according to RP Data
Topic Started: 30 Apr 2012, 05:46 PM (3,027 Views)
raveswei
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According to RP data mysterious daily index Australian capital city home prices fell -0.73% offsetting almost all seasonal rises over the summer (+0.68% in February and +0.18% in March).

In seasonally adjusted terms April fall is larger because that was the case in previous years.

Overall house prices in first four months of 2012 fell 0.9% in nominal or around 2% in seasonally adjusted terms.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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miw
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raveswei
30 Apr 2012, 05:46 PM

Isn't it funny that every Real Estate spruiker in the country has come out with a doom and gloom story the day before the Reserve Bank meets about interest rates. (and no, I don't mean you raveswei).

I wonder if the same people will be out saying "prices are skyrocketing - better get in and buy 'em while they are hot!" at 3pm tomorrow.

The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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newjez
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miw
30 Apr 2012, 06:56 PM
raveswei
30 Apr 2012, 05:46 PM

Isn't it funny that every Real Estate spruiker in the country has come out with a doom and gloom story the day before the Reserve Bank meets about interest rates. (and no, I don't mean you raveswei).

I wonder if the same people will be out saying "prices are skyrocketing - better get in and buy 'em while they are hot!" at 3pm tomorrow.

Two articles today in Perth now about construction falling - you may be right. RBA is under a lot of pressure. Glad they are non political.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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raveswei
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miw
30 Apr 2012, 06:56 PM
raveswei
30 Apr 2012, 05:46 PM

Isn't it funny that every Real Estate spruiker in the country has come out with a doom and gloom story the day before the Reserve Bank meets about interest rates. (and no, I don't mean you raveswei).

I wonder if the same people will be out saying "prices are skyrocketing - better get in and buy 'em while they are hot!" at 3pm tomorrow.

The funniest of all is that spruikers still hope RBA rate cuts will save the housing and make them rich.

Did they ever asked what happened with house prices after FED cut 5.5% and ECB cut 3.25%?

RBA is left with 2-2.5% of cutting power before bank adjustments. I would say somewhere around 1-1.5% in "big four bank adjusted terms".
Edited by raveswei, 30 Apr 2012, 07:05 PM.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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Sydneyite
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raveswei
30 Apr 2012, 07:03 PM
The funniest of all is that spruikers still hope RBA rate cuts will save the housing and make them rich.

Did they ever asked what happened with house prices after FED cut 5.5% and ECB cut 3.25%?
The answers to those questions are irrelevant - different countries in different economic circumstances! We don't need to guess what will happen in Oz, we saw it in 2009/2010 the last time the RBA slashed interest rates. Ignore that recent, local history at your financial peril!
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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raveswei
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Sydneyite
30 Apr 2012, 07:06 PM
The answers to those questions are irrelevant - different countries in different economic circumstances!

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We don't need to guess what will happen in Oz, we saw it in 2009/2010 the last time the RBA slashed interest rates. Ignore that recent, local history at your financial peril!


I'm not ignoring local history. That history showed that extremely large government stimulus was enough to save us from external shock.

Current situation is not similar, our property bubble is bursting without external shock in fact it's bursting while the rest of the world is recovering.

So we learned from recent history that huge government stimulus can save a country (temporarily) from external shocks, but we also learned from recent history that nothing can save a country when its own bubble bursts.
Edited by raveswei, 30 Apr 2012, 07:15 PM.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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stinkbug
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Is that a picture of Rave getting ready for his next rental increase? :lol
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Admin
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The House Price Fall Resumes in April

The RPData daily house price series confirm a 0.7% fall in house prices in April (end of month data, not seasonally adjusted) after prices were relatively flat (down just 0.1%) in the first three months of 2012. In month-end terms, house prices have reached a new low for the cycle.

One aspect of the ongoing moderate house price falls that is welcome is more favourable affordability through market driven means.

The negative side of falling house prices are multi-layered. Household wealth is being eroded which suggests less confidence and purchasing power. Recall that nearly 70% of the people own (or are buying) their own house for living in, plus there are more than 1 million second, third, fourth and more houses owned by these people which magnifies the impact of any significant cycles in house prices on wealth and confidence.

For the banks, there is a slow but steady risk that more households drift into negative equity as house prices fall (in crude terms, anyone who bought a house n the last 2 years could be out of the money). If this becomes more common, then the consumers under water with their finances stop spending; the banks losing money on mortgages restrict new lending and the economy stalls. This is the worst case scenario.

Clearly, the RBA does not target house prices, but it does take note of house price trends for the consequences for the economy and the inflation outlook when it sets monetary policy. Perhaps house pries have already fallen enough to sow a seed of concern about the risks of some economic stodge unfolding. There seems to be some risk of this being priced in to bank funding costs and into the current yields in the government bond market.

This entry was posted in Stephen Koukoulas.

Read more: http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/1915-the-house-price-fall-resumes-in-april
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Elastic
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It looks like Black Panther's exit was exquisitely timed.

He called the bottom in Q3 2011 but as I suggested there will be plenty more bottoms to pick for those inclined to do so.
The slight uptick in the first quarter of this year was purely seasonal and the launching of the RPData index just prior to this period without seasonal adjustments was a cynical attempt to breathe life into this market.
Given that auction clearance rates are lower than last year we can expect the "slide" to continue.

If the RBA cut rates and the banks follow, the majority will pay down their loans quicker and the reduced interest payments on deposits will continue to drag down the economy.
The banks will be stuck with Catch 22. They don't want you to pay off your debts quicker but they want to drum up some new business.
Ultimately it's easier and more profitable for them to charge their existing customers higher rates than try to find new suckers.
The RBA becomes increasingly irrelevant.

All the bulls are sitting, hoping that some interest rate cuts will save their failing investments but you should have taken my advice 2 years ago and sold up.

Meanwhile the global economic disaster movie will continue to play on and share markets will lurch back and forth until Spain's then Italy's day of reckoning arrives.
The EU will find a stopgap solution that will save the current day while making the future worse following in Ben Bernanke's footsteps.



Only a rat can win a rat race.

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raveswei
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stinkbug
30 Apr 2012, 07:47 PM
Is that a picture of Rave getting ready for his next rental increase? :lol
you are new on the forum but already in full spruiker lingo and ready to insult other people.
This picture clearly represent foolish property speculator who bought recently overpriced property in Canberra or Sydney that will likely lose half the value over the next couple of years.
So the speculator ignores all the signs of coming crash hoping government to save his ass. Government being the last hope is prime example of ostrich behaviour.


BTW
let's review this situation: what would tenant ostrich behaviour mean for a landlord?

It looks to me that tenant is not ready to pay more. So, rent could stay the same or tenant will move out

second option means couple of thousands out of landlord's pocket (REA costs + couple of weeks with no rental income)

so rent will stay the same
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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