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National House Prices up +0.9% in Q1 2012: APM; Australian Property Monitors: Rise in prices follows 15 straight months of falls
Topic Started: 27 Apr 2012, 09:43 AM (2,591 Views)
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Housing industry encouraged by higher prices after 15 months of falls

April 27, 2012

HOUSE prices throughout Australia grew slightly over the March quarter, the first positive news for the housing market in months.

Between January and March prices rose 0.9 per cent, the second consecutive quarter of growth, figures from property data provider Australian Property Monitors show.

The rise in prices over the last two quarters follows 15 straight months of falls, APM said. It also comes after a recent slump in building approvals, new home sales and lending.

Sydney's housing shortage continued to bolster prices, which rose 1.4 per cent. Prices rose in all capital cities apart from Brisbane and Adelaide.

''Sydney was the standout performer in the unit market over the quarter with median unit prices rising by 2.5 per cent,'' the APM economist Andrew Wilson said.

''Although the Melbourne market has been encouraging so far this year, this may prove to be short-lived if the Victorian economic performance continues to deteriorate.''

Other data continues to reveal mixed signals about the state of the property market.

This month another property analyst, RP Data, said the nation's house prices had stayed flat over the same period. Melbourne's fell 0.8 per cent but Sydney's rose 1.1 per cent, RP Data said.

Auction clearance rates - another indicator of market health - have edged up this year, to around 59 per cent in both Sydney and Melbourne.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/housing-industry-encouraged-by-higher-prices-after-15-months-of-falls-20120426-1xnyn.html#ixzz1tBmdOQKF
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

Looks like we've passed the national tipping point. Look for price rises to broadly continue. The up cycle has begun!
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Sydneyite
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From SMH/APM - highlights quoted below. Looks like prices are definitely rising a bit and not falling anymore nearly everywhere, and especially in Sydney. Price falls stopped during Q4 of 2011. Will be interesting to see the ABS data shortly, but this makes Residex, RP-Data and APM all recording riding prices for Q1 2012 now.

Quote:
 

AUSTRALIA'S house prices rose slightly over the March quarter, bringing more positive news for the housing market.
Between January and March this year prices rose 0.9 per cent, the second consecutive quarter of growth, figures from property data provider Australian Property Monitors show.

............

Sydney's continuing housing shortage continued to bolster prices, which rose 1.4 per cent.
And Melbourne recorded a surprise rise of 1.6 per cent
, the figures show.
All capital cities apart from Brisbane and Adelaide saw their prices rise, APM said.

'Although the Melbourne market has been encouraging so far this year, this may prove to be short-lived if the Victorian economic performance continues to deteriorate,'' APM economist Andrew Wilson said.
''Sydney was the standout performer in the unit market over the quarter, with median unit prices rising by 2.5 per cent,' he said.


Full article here: http://www.smh.com.au/business/house-price-lift-brings-glimmer-of-hope-20120426-1xnvz.html
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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themoops
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APM is lying.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/04/apms-magical-march-quarter-house-price-rises-by-david-llewellyn-smith/

stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

themoops
27 Apr 2012, 12:10 PM
It is quite appropriate to compare the current quarter's data with the revised data for the prior quarter.

This is exactly how the ABS does it. APM is not lying.

David Llewellyn-Smith is wrong. It is perfectly normal to revise prior quarter's data. The ABS doesn't announce that the previous quarter was revised (which it always is) when they release their house price data each quarter. The revisions can be easily seen (in both the APM and ABS case) by looking at the previous release.

What's the problem?
Edited by Shadow, 27 Apr 2012, 12:26 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Sydneyite
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themoops
27 Apr 2012, 12:10 PM
Fine - you convince yourself of that, but you are wrong.

This is just like in early 2009 - all the bears said APM, RP-Data, Residex, even ABS data was all wrong / lying etc when house price data started showing rises. It wasn't until nearly a whole year had passed and prices were on their way to a 20% gain that many bears even acknowledged that prices had in fact risen. They were fools then, and people like you are fools now if you don't believe what the data from multiple sources is telling you. The crash is off, so bad luck if that upsets you - I don't feel sorry for you though, because you (themoops) are a particularly nasty and obnoxious little bear......
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Shadow
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Shadow
27 Apr 2012, 12:24 PM
APM is not lying.

David Llewellyn-Smith is wrong. It is perfectly normal to revise prior quarter's data. The ABS doesn't announce that the previous quarter was revised (which it always is) when they release their house price data each quarter. The revisions can be easily seen (in both the APM and ABS case) by looking at the previous release.
Also note that this isn't the first time Macrobusiness have made this error...

Leith van Onselen from Macrobusiness gets it wrong - credibility in ruins once again
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Lefty
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Quote:
 
They were fools then, and people like you are fools now if you don't believe what the data from multiple sources is telling you.


Other sources - such as RPData in this case - have not managed to replicate this APM result.

However, as a subscriber to the "long, slow melt" veiw, I don't see why we can't have a bit of an upswing for a while.

Quote:
 
The crash is off,


I would wait until the federal governments exact course of action becomes clearer. Pulling 2.6% of GDP worth of spending at a time when the economy outside the mining sector is clearly not going gangbusters doesn't sound like the sort of thing that would do the housing market any favours, notwithstanding that the RBA will lower the cash rate.
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themoops
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Sydneyite
27 Apr 2012, 01:25 PM
Fine - you convince yourself of that, but you are wrong.

This is just like in early 2009 - all the bears said APM, RP-Data, Residex, even ABS data was all wrong / lying etc when house price data started showing rises. It wasn't until nearly a whole year had passed and prices were on their way to a 20% gain that many bears even acknowledged that prices had in fact risen. They were fools then, and people like you are fools now if you don't believe what the data from multiple sources is telling you. The crash is off, so bad luck if that upsets you - I don't feel sorry for you though, because you (themoops) are a particularly nasty and obnoxious little bear......
Europe is still in the shit, so is retail, and we have a carbon tax coming soon, until these things clear up, which imo they never will, the crash is on.

You're a fool if you are so optimistic for yourself. The last thing in the world I want from you parasites is pity.

I'm nasty to parasites, which makes me a good man.

You're a bunch of sickos incapable of being human anyway, you all want free money handed to you on a plate by government intervention, you're absolute filth.
Edited by themoops, 27 Apr 2012, 01:49 PM.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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peter fraser
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themoops
27 Apr 2012, 01:47 PM
Sydneyite
27 Apr 2012, 01:25 PM
Fine - you convince yourself of that, but you are wrong.

This is just like in early 2009 - all the bears said APM, RP-Data, Residex, even ABS data was all wrong / lying etc when house price data started showing rises. It wasn't until nearly a whole year had passed and prices were on their way to a 20% gain that many bears even acknowledged that prices had in fact risen. They were fools then, and people like you are fools now if you don't believe what the data from multiple sources is telling you. The crash is off, so bad luck if that upsets you - I don't feel sorry for you though, because you (themoops) are a particularly nasty and obnoxious little bear......
Europe is still in the shit, so is retail, and we have a carbon tax coming soon, until these things clear up, which imo they never will, the crash is on.

You're a fool if you are so optimistic for yourself. The last thing in the world I want from you parasites is pity.

I'm nasty to parasites, which makes me a good man.

You're a bunch of sickos incapable of being human anyway, you all want free money handed to you on a plate by government intervention, you're absolute filth.
Hi moops, I've read the macrobusiness article and I agree with their concerns regarding the revised figures.

However if we graph the quarterly numbers that would still give us an accurate trend, bearing in mind that the latest quarter may also be revised.

It's the trends that are important.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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