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ABS 6401.0 - CPI Consumer Price Index, Australia, Mar 2012; Rate cut looms as Q1 inflation comes in at 0.1%, well below market expectation of 0.6%
Topic Started: 24 Apr 2012, 12:32 PM (3,883 Views)
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ABS Data: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6401.0Main+Features1Mar%202012?OpenDocument

All Groups CPI, Quarterly change
Posted Image

Contribution to quarterly change
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Quote:
 
MARCH KEY POINTS

THE ALL GROUPS CPI

rose 0.1% in the March quarter 2012, compared with no change in the December quarter 2011.
rose 1.6% through the year to the March quarter 2012, compared with a rise of 3.1% through the year to the December quarter 2011.

OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS

The most significant price rises this quarter were for pharmaceutical products (+14.1%), secondary education (+7.7%), automotive fuel (+2.5%), medical and hospital services (+2.1%), tertiary education (+4.7%) and rents (+1.0%).
The most significant price falls this quarter were for fruit (-30.0%), international holiday travel and accommodation (-4.8%), furniture (-6.0%), audio, visual and computing equipment (-6.3%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.0%).
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Strindberg
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Rents up TEN TIMES FASTER THAN INFLATION in the last quarter.

Rents up 1%, CPI up 0.1%.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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davel
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Wow if that 10x continues I'll be on the streets in a few months :D

Not sure where these rent rises are happening, certainly aint in my SE Melb hood, where rents seem to be falling...
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Quote:
 
Rate cut looms large as prices inch up

Chris Zappone
April 24, 2012 - 11:33AM

Consumer prices rose by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2012, following a flat reading in the fourth quarter of 2011.

For the year to March 2012, inflation increased by 1.6 per cent, following a 3.1 per cent increase over 2011, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today. The market had expected a 0.6 per cent rise in the quarter and a 2.2 per cent rise in the year.

The dollar fell from $US1.031 to $US1.026 immediately after the data was released.

‘‘We think the May rate cut is pretty much done and dusted now,’’ said RBC Capital Market economist Michael Turner. ‘‘Next month is almost a given and the question is whether the RBA follows up with another cut in June.’’

The Reserve Bank said this month that a weaker first quarter inflation reading would allow it cut the interest rate on May 1 if needed. The gap between the mining and non-mining economy have grown over the past year, as the commodities boom rewards areas associated with mining, while driving up costs nationwide.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/rate-cut-looms-large-as-prices-inch-up-20120424-1xibl.html#ixzz1suyUitZm
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Strindberg
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Inflation is now below the target mandated by the Treasury to the RBA.
The RBA now have a DUTY to get inflation increased.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Enrico Palazzo
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Strindberg
24 Apr 2012, 12:45 PM
Inflation is now below the target mandated by the Treasury to the RBA.
The RBA now have a DUTY to get inflation increased.
Trimmed mean is 2.2% and core is 2.16%

why do they have a duty to increase inflation from this level?

Edited by Enrico Palazzo, 24 Apr 2012, 12:53 PM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The annual figure of 1.6% all happened in mid 2011. The last two quarters have been flat. With 0.1% last quarter, and zero inflation the previous quarter, the RBA has got to be annualising this and looking ahead to a possible full year of practically zero inflation unless they drop interest rates.

The only question now is whether rates drop 0.25% or 0.5% next week. I'm leaning to 0.5% on these figures.

This will be a huge boost for the property market, which has already been rising moderately since January...
Edited by Shadow, 24 Apr 2012, 12:55 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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Enrico Palazzo
24 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM
Trimmed mean is 2.2% and core is 2.16%

why do they have a duty to increase inflation from this level?
Quarterly figures for trimmed mean and weighted median were 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

A similar reading next quarter would bring the annual rate in both cases down to 1.7%.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Strindberg
24 Apr 2012, 12:39 PM
Rents up TEN TIMES FASTER THAN INFLATION in the last quarter.

Rents up 1%, CPI up 0.1%.
House prices also rising faster than inflation. Sydney house prices rising more than 12x the rate of inflation...

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 24 Apr 2012, 01:22 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Alright Jack
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Check out Louis Christophers comment in the twitter feed on the LHS of the forum.

Quote:
 
LouiChristopher If the RBA goes 50bp cut, and that is mostly passed on, housing bottom here we come (Ceteris Paribus)! 58 minutes ago
Counting your chickens too soon there I think Louis.
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