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Veda Quarterly Consumer Credit Demand Index: Jan-Mar 2012; Credit demand still soft but mortgage enquiries rise for first time since GFC
Topic Started: 24 Apr 2012, 12:20 PM (1,075 Views)
zaph
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Mike
25 Apr 2012, 12:28 PM
From a WA point of view this confirms what we are seeing over here and what WA treasury deparment is reporting. http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_Treasury/Economic_Data/housing_finance_feb2012.pdf?n=9938 Lending commitments exclusing refinancing increased by 9.5% in February from the same peroid last year. When you include refinance and new home construction loans this figure increases to 21.4% for February. March shows an even greater increase to 24% increase in lending commitments.

This data backs up other data on 1st home buyers, which the WA treasury reports increased "paid" grants in march was 15% higher in 2012 then march 2011. On a yearly basis First Home Buyer Grants are up 35% on a year ago. This is paid grants not applications, the level of applications was higher again. http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/section.aspx?id=550

What this data also shows is the medium price paid for a 1st home owner was $420,000. The last time the medium 1st home owner price was this high was when home medium home prices were over $500,000. If this does pan out over the next few months, it would mean perth medium house prices have increased from a low of around $450,000 to over $500,000. Early data from landgate show medium house prices at $495,000 but on incomplete data. Complete march figures from landgate will tell us a great deal on how quickly prices are risig. If we are anywhere near the $500,000 price range, it would mean medium perth house prices have increased close to 10% in the last 6 months. My estimate for 7-9% for the full year of 2012 could now be to low, I did not see such a strong come back from 1st home buyers on the cards, rather a steady buildup. Not this huge 15% spike in one month. This could indicate the rental situation in perth is much worse then reported forcing more people to opt to buy rather then rent. The next few months will be very important to watch perth closely. The only problem is if landgate does report medium prices around $500,000, you already missed out on a 10% jump in medium values, im sure there is more to come as perth is undervalued considering our mining boom and prices relative to other capitals.

This data also ties in with the early signs of an increase in building approvals http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_Treasury/Economic_Data/building_approvals_feb2012.pdf?n=1369 we should see in comming months these figures show some improvement. Although the data on 1st home owner grants does show most were paid for existing houses.

it's median, not medium.

the median is the middle point of a data set. eg sales are - 100k, 105k, 300k, 600k, 2m. the median is 300k and the mean (or widely accepted definition of average) 517.5k.
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