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Australian Property Bears and Bulls: Do you suffer from confirmation bias?
Topic Started: 24 Apr 2012, 10:08 AM (2,035 Views)
kennyjaiz
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barns
24 Apr 2012, 01:58 PM
All of them.
Thanks for entertaining me. :)

Answer:
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8305359&t=9516074
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kennyjaiz
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Another heuristic brain teaser for the day:

A man and his son had a terrible car accident and were rushed to the hospital. The man died on the way, but the son was still barely alive. When they arrived, an old grey surgeon was called in to operate. Upon seeing the young boy, the surgeon said, "I can't operate - this is my son."
How is this possible?

Answer: here

Happy ANZAC day!
Edited by kennyjaiz, 24 Apr 2012, 06:24 PM.
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

kennyjaiz
24 Apr 2012, 06:21 PM
Another heuristic brain teaser for the day:

A man and his son had a terrible car accident and were rushed to the hospital. The man died on the way, but the son was still barely alive. When they arrived, an old grey surgeon was called in to operate. Upon seeing the young boy, the surgeon said, "I can't operate - this is my son."
How is this possible?

Answer: here

Happy ANZAC day!
That one was a much more obvious. I got the earlier one wrong though.
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kennyjaiz
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NotFooled
24 Apr 2012, 06:42 PM
That one was a much more obvious. I got the earlier one wrong though.
Same.

The Wason’s selection task is structured in a specific way to induce confirmation bias. It has been researched over decades yielding similar results. If I was to re-structure the question:

Imagine that you work in a bar and have to enforce the rule that, in order to drink alcoholic beverages, patrons must be over 18 years of age.

You observe four “young” people in a bar: the first is drinking beer; the second is drinking Coke; the third is 25 years old; and the fourth is 16 years old.

What must you check in order to verify that the rule is being enforced?

You will have no issue choosing "Beer" and "16" (almost 100% of people get it right).
This is known as the "content effect" which counters "confirmation bias".
Edited by kennyjaiz, 24 Apr 2012, 07:10 PM.
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themoops
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A large part of it is a propaganda war because the economy relies so much on sentiment.

I wonder how much influence a shitty little forum like this has?

Given that "Mel" from fucken Aussie Home Loans signed up today probably more than I think. Also you have the bulls stressing over Macrobusiness.

The crash is on bitches.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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Catweasel
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Catweasel say this thread show the whole problem with a confirm bias: mouse not even a understand what it is relative to mouse house price. Of the course, Kenny and other forum mouse completely ignore the Karl the Popper and its ideas of a falsification (which is a rife among mouse, expert, and the rest of the army). This really the crux of what a confirm bias mean relative to the asset market.

Confirm the bias is more a related to belief about mouse house price and its future. Mouzelaot is the prime example--always stating a "data" to prove itself. Which is of the course a completely un-the-scientific. Some the how, it a think its clever by using a data with a most un-the-scientific proof it could imagine.

But seeing that it follow what a master and expert ram down its throats, it a hardly any the surprise.
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Catweasel
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Forum mouse seem rather the lost on the concept of confirm bias and how it apply to world of asset market.

Fascinating to see how the lack of knowledge pervade.
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