Confirmation Bias Confirmation bias is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Confirmation bias can lead investors to be overconfident, ignoring evidence that their strategies will lose money.
A question for the bulls and bears of the forum. Do you think you suffer from confirmation bias?
From what I've observed, the bears never post positive data and the bulls never post negative data. Both sides stay 'on message'.
I suspect both sides would claim the opposite side suffers from confirmation bias, but they don't see it in themselves?
Agree? Disagree?
See also.....
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Selective Exposure Theory The selective exposure theory is a concept in media and communication research that refers to individuals’ tendency to favor information that reinforces pre-existing views while avoiding information that contradicts their views. This theory demonstrates the action in which people tend to select specific aspects of exposed information based on their own perspective, beliefs, attitudes, and decisions. People can select the information exposed to them and select favorable evidence, ignoring unfavorable evidence.
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Hostile Media Effect The hostile media effect, sometimes called the hostile media phenomenon, refers to the finding that people with strong biases toward an issue (partisans) perceive media coverage as biased against their opinions, regardless of the reality. Proponents of the hostile media effect argue that this finding cannot be attributed to the presence of bias in the news reports, since partisans from opposing sides of an issue rate the same coverage as biased against their side and biased in favor of the opposing side.
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Cherry Picking Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias.
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Cognitive Enertia Cognitive inertia refers the tendency for beliefs or sets of beliefs to endure once formed. In particular, cognitive inertia describes the human inclination to rely on familiar assumptions and exhibit a reluctance and/or inability to revise those assumptions, even when the evidence supporting them no longer exists or when other evidence would question their accuracy.
Catweasel say O the K. If it accepts that a confirmation bias is the all pervasive, how has it done the influence on a mouse house the price? Consider that a mouse house price is domain of master, media, expert, bank, and white shoe, how does it think that a confirm the bias have the influence?
If a confirm bias is the real, then why was a outsider who challenge status quo seriously mocked until collapse of global economy?
Its definitely true for nearly everyone here. Those who claim otherwise are being dishonest and do themselves a disservice.
My bias is towards a belief that a conspiracy of vested interests influence the government to ensure property prices stay high and that population growth remains high. And indebted populace is more easily controlled if they have "safe" targets towards which to vent their anger (the banks, the greens, etc). The Australian people are generally powerless to do anything about it and are overall too stupid, greedy and lazy to question the propaganda that spews from these vested interests via the media and government.
A question for the bulls and bears of the forum. Do you think you suffer from confirmation bias?
From what I've observed, the bears never post positive data and the bulls never post negative data. Both sides stay 'on message'.
I suspect both sides would claim the opposite side suffers from confirmation bias, but they don't see it in themselves?
Agree? Disagree?
See also.....
Quote:
Confirmation bias is perhaps the best known and most widely accepted notion of inferential error to come out of the literature on human reasoning. (Evans, 1989, p. 41)
There are evolutionary reasons for cognitive biases and heuristics (e.g. reduce uncertainty, increase decision making speed), but may lead to context-specific misjudgement. Confirmation bias is argued to be ubiquitous. The robustness of this cognitive bias is evident in your question.
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From what I've observed, the bears never post positive data and the bulls never post negative data.
Never? Are you sure? You will find that is not the case, for both bears and bulls. Whilst the interpretation may be different, some bears and bulls do not shy away from data inconsistent with their beliefs.
But to answer your questions: 1, I do believe I "suffer" from confirmation bias 2, I disagree with your observation 3, Not exactly, but I get your point. 4, Partially agree
Everyone suffers from a degree of confirmation bias. This is one of the reasons I don't post much on sites like Somersoft or PropertyInvesting.com... there's no point hanging out where nearly everyone agrees with you... you're not going to learn much that way. I have always tended to prefer the more bearish property sites, the only problem being that most of them don't really appreciate non-bears posting there, so us non-bears generally end up getting banned if we spend too much time there.
There are evolutionary reasons for cognitive biases and heuristics (e.g. reduce uncertainty, increase decision making speed), but may lead to context-specific misjudgement. Confirmation bias is argued to be ubiquitous. The robustness of this cognitive bias is evident in your question.
Never? Are you sure? You will find that is not the case, for both bears and bulls. Whilst the interpretation may be different, some bears and bulls do not shy away from data inconsistent with their beliefs.
But to answer your questions: 1, I do believe I "suffer" from confirmation bias 2, I disagree with your observation 3, Not exactly, but I get your point. 4, Partially agree
Catwease would say that a Kenny probably a perfect the lab rat specimen for this the subject. Confirmation bias was a taken into a world of a science by a Karl the Popper. And that a entirely where a mouse house myth stem from--the idea that it the can be modeled and predicted (a complete furphy shown in economic history).
But that not really in the realm of the mouse. Even the expert struggle with a this the one as it make its career look the suspiciously bogus.
Everyone suffers from a degree of confirmation bias. This is one of the reasons I don't post much on sites like Somersoft or PropertyInvesting.com... there's no point hanging out where nearly everyone agrees with you... you're not going to learn much that way. I have always tended to prefer the more bearish property sites, the only problem being that most of them don't really appreciate non-bears posting there, so us non-bears generally end up getting banned if we spend too much time there.
Catweasel laugh. But a mouzealot absolutely drowning in a confirmation bias. That clearly a obvious. It only get the banned for its trollish.
If you guys would indulge me, I'll share with you a variant of a famous psych experiment. I will rewrite the question, so hopefully you won't be able to google the answer.
The scenario is: Four cards on a desk infront of you. Each card has a number on one side and colour on the other side. The four cards show: 5, 6, Yellow and Blue.
Which card(s) should you turn to test the following proposition: If a card has an odd number on the one side, then its opposite side is Yellow.
If you guys would indulge me, I'll share with you a variant of a famous psych experiment. I will rewrite the question, so hopefully you won't be able to google the answer.
The scenario is: Four cards on a desk infront of you. Each card has a number on one side and colour on the other side. The four cards show: 5, 6, Yellow and Blue.
Which card(s) should you turn to test the following proposition: If a card has an odd number on the one side, then its opposite side is Yellow.
All of them.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
A question for the bulls and bears of the forum. Do you think you suffer from confirmation bias?
From what I've observed, the bears never post positive data and the bulls never post negative data. Both sides stay 'on message'.
I suspect both sides would claim the opposite side suffers from confirmation bias, but they don't see it in themselves?
Agree? Disagree?
See also.....
Yes absolutely.
I try to be objective but you hear what you wanna hear - human nature. I can personally see both sides of the argument. Im no Bear and Im no Bull in the short term.
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