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Leith van Onselen deceit exposed on Macrobusiness by Peter Fraser; Unconventional Economist's deceit exposed
Topic Started: 23 Apr 2012, 03:10 PM (7,856 Views)
georgie
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peter fraser
25 Apr 2012, 10:55 PM
I won't check your calculations, if you assure me that they are correct I will take your word for it.

This all started because I made a statement three years ago in January 2009 saying that it was a good time to buy. It was never only about Brisbane. You will find that Brisbane's median has been forced down more than other capital cities due to the Floods in January 2011 - had those floods not have occurred it is reasonable to argue that the median would be higher right now.

Looking beyond Brisbane, what is your calculation for Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart, and Perth, and when you have aggregated that to give us a rounded result for all Australian Capital Cities, how does that compare with Steven Keens prediction of a 40% fall from around the same time.

In January 2009 that call was a brave one because almost all economists and media entertainers were still calling for spectacular falls in median prices, but I was seeing data from within the industry, as I am today. Up until Q4 2008 I was bearish, but then we saw rate falls and people started buying, and I could see that change.

There is a time lapse between when people sign contracts to buy a house, and when those sales get reported in lending commitments and housing transactions with the ABS. What is being seen on the ground today, becomes data later on.

In January 2009 there was worse advice being liberally handed out by others than that one statement that I made. However assuming that some people think that I was wrong, my question to them is - have all of your own statements over the last three years been 100% accurate?

If David Carter was giving his "Don't Buy Now" advice in January 2009, a hell of a lot more people would be worse off as a result of taking that advice.





But your forgetting these are first time buyers, not people who flip properties after 3 years. The average person who buys a property lives in it for 7+ years. Your call in 2009 means that you are predicting house prices to run good for 7 years so till 2016. Now, no one can predict where we will be in 2016 but with all the problems going on internationally, as well as problems domestically, coupled with the fact that the last business cycles debt binge will never be seen again for a good decade+ how can suggest that buying property now or even in 2009 (which i accept I have hindsight on my side) is a good thing for a young person starting out in life??, why commit to 7+ years of paying interest when there will be no forseeable real capital gains in the future?

Just because things look good in the short term doesn't mean you go ahead and buy property, which is what you implied by saying it was a good time to buy because interest rates were falling.

Anyways on somthing unrelated, I appreciate your comments here and on MB they make for a good read :D
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peter fraser
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georgie
25 Apr 2012, 11:32 PM
peter fraser
25 Apr 2012, 10:55 PM
I won't check your calculations, if you assure me that they are correct I will take your word for it.

This all started because I made a statement three years ago in January 2009 saying that it was a good time to buy. It was never only about Brisbane. You will find that Brisbane's median has been forced down more than other capital cities due to the Floods in January 2011 - had those floods not have occurred it is reasonable to argue that the median would be higher right now.

Looking beyond Brisbane, what is your calculation for Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart, and Perth, and when you have aggregated that to give us a rounded result for all Australian Capital Cities, how does that compare with Steven Keens prediction of a 40% fall from around the same time.

In January 2009 that call was a brave one because almost all economists and media entertainers were still calling for spectacular falls in median prices, but I was seeing data from within the industry, as I am today. Up until Q4 2008 I was bearish, but then we saw rate falls and people started buying, and I could see that change.

There is a time lapse between when people sign contracts to buy a house, and when those sales get reported in lending commitments and housing transactions with the ABS. What is being seen on the ground today, becomes data later on.

In January 2009 there was worse advice being liberally handed out by others than that one statement that I made. However assuming that some people think that I was wrong, my question to them is - have all of your own statements over the last three years been 100% accurate?

If David Carter was giving his "Don't Buy Now" advice in January 2009, a hell of a lot more people would be worse off as a result of taking that advice.





But your forgetting these are first time buyers, not people who flip properties after 3 years. The average person who buys a property lives in it for 7+ years. Your call in 2009 means that you are predicting house prices to run good for 7 years so till 2016. Now, no one can predict where we will be in 2016 but with all the problems going on internationally, as well as problems domestically, coupled with the fact that the last business cycles debt binge will never be seen again for a good decade+ how can suggest that buying property now or even in 2009 (which i accept I have hindsight on my side) is a good thing for a young person starting out in life??, why commit to 7+ years of paying interest when there will be no forseeable real capital gains in the future?

Just because things look good in the short term doesn't mean you go ahead and buy property, which is what you implied by saying it was a good time to buy because interest rates were falling.

Anyways on somthing unrelated, I appreciate your comments here and on MB they make for a good read :D
Thanks for being polite Georgie, I don't see that as much as I should over at MB.

I think in longer time frames than 7 years Georgie, so I'll make you a special offer. You go to Steven Keen, David Carter or Leith Van Onselen and ask them for a written personal guarantee that the median detached dwelling price in Brisbane will be lower in 25 years than it is today, and I'll match word for word whatever their guarantee states and offers as compensation, except that I will guarantee the median price in nominal terms to be higher.

You can start that from this month or January 2009 - I'll leave that up to your discretion.

This is a once off offer only available to you - don't miss out (sorry I couldn't help myself)

You will find out that no one will give you guarantees on house prices either way - it's always the buyers call, and some risk can't be avoided unless you live in a communist state that supplies state owned housing.

I like other people can only give you information that I believe to be honest and likely to be correct at this time. I do accept that not everyone will give you honest information, and I also accept that things do change, and so opinions must change.


Cheers...

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Catweasel
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peter fraser
26 Apr 2012, 12:55 AM
Thanks for being polite Georgie, I don't see that as much as I should over at MB.

I think in longer time frames than 7 years Georgie, so I'll make you a special offer. You go to Steven Keen, David Carter or Leith Van Onselen and ask them for a written personal guarantee that the median detached dwelling price in Brisbane will be lower in 25 years than it is today, and I'll match word for word whatever their guarantee states and offers as compensation, except that I will guarantee the median price in nominal terms to be higher.

You can start that from this month or January 2009 - I'll leave that up to your discretion.

This is a once off offer only available to you - don't miss out (sorry I couldn't help myself)

You will find out that no one will give you guarantees on house prices either way - it's always the buyers call, and some risk can't be avoided unless you live in a communist state that supplies state owned housing.

I like other people can only give you information that I believe to be honest and likely to be correct at this time. I do accept that not everyone will give you honest information, and I also accept that things do change, and so opinions must change.


Cheers...
Catweasel laugh. Business as the usual. If it understand anything about a risk modeling, it probably could not the afford to be so the flippant. But it not the know anything about risk modeling, so it largely the irrelevant opinion piece.
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peter fraser
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Catweasel
26 Apr 2012, 01:19 AM
peter fraser
26 Apr 2012, 12:55 AM
Thanks for being polite Georgie, I don't see that as much as I should over at MB.

I think in longer time frames than 7 years Georgie, so I'll make you a special offer. You go to Steven Keen, David Carter or Leith Van Onselen and ask them for a written personal guarantee that the median detached dwelling price in Brisbane will be lower in 25 years than it is today, and I'll match word for word whatever their guarantee states and offers as compensation, except that I will guarantee the median price in nominal terms to be higher.

You can start that from this month or January 2009 - I'll leave that up to your discretion.

This is a once off offer only available to you - don't miss out (sorry I couldn't help myself)

You will find out that no one will give you guarantees on house prices either way - it's always the buyers call, and some risk can't be avoided unless you live in a communist state that supplies state owned housing.

I like other people can only give you information that I believe to be honest and likely to be correct at this time. I do accept that not everyone will give you honest information, and I also accept that things do change, and so opinions must change.


Cheers...
Catweasel laugh. Business as the usual. If it understand anything about a risk modeling, it probably could not the afford to be so the flippant. But it not the know anything about risk modeling, so it largely the irrelevant opinion piece.
Hello Kitty.

Time to put the hooch away.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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nipa hut
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peter fraser
26 Apr 2012, 12:55 AM
Thanks for being polite Georgie, I don't see that as much as I should over at MB.

I think in longer time frames than 7 years Georgie, so I'll make you a special offer. You go to Steven Keen, David Carter or Leith Van Onselen and ask them for a written personal guarantee that the median detached dwelling price in Brisbane will be lower in 25 years than it is today, and I'll match word for word whatever their guarantee states and offers as compensation, except that I will guarantee the median price in nominal terms to be higher.

You can start that from this month or January 2009 - I'll leave that up to your discretion.

This is a once off offer only available to you - don't miss out (sorry I couldn't help myself)

You will find out that no one will give you guarantees on house prices either way - it's always the buyers call, and some risk can't be avoided unless you live in a communist state that supplies state owned housing.

I like other people can only give you information that I believe to be honest and likely to be correct at this time. I do accept that not everyone will give you honest information, and I also accept that things do change, and so opinions must change.


Cheers...
The man puts his money where his mouth is.

I suspect the hardcore bears will complain about the terms, despite previously stated beliefs...
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genX
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peter fraser
26 Apr 2012, 12:55 AM
... except that I will guarantee the median price in nominal terms to be higher.
Well there's the rub, nominal terms. How about priced in loaves of bread?
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peter fraser
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genX
26 Apr 2012, 08:40 PM
peter fraser
26 Apr 2012, 12:55 AM
... except that I will guarantee the median price in nominal terms to be higher.
Well there's the rub, nominal terms. How about priced in loaves of bread?
Any borrowings stay in nominal terms, so for the FTB section it is relevant to use nominal terms. That was the sector that was used to criticise me.

It would hardly be reasonable to criticise on the grounds of what it may do to an FTB and then use a cash buyer to justify the criticism.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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TMR
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Catweasel
26 Apr 2012, 01:19 AM
Catweasel snipe. Catweasel obfuscate. Catweasel not making point of its own.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Shadow
25 Apr 2012, 10:40 AM
audas
 
Reserve bank is expected to cut by 50 basis points with near zero inflation while ALL BANKS are expected NOT to pass this on

official interest rates are going to be slashed with absolutely no response from the banks
Do you really believe the banks are not going to pass on any of the official rate cuts?

I suppose you thought the same thing in 2008... all the GHPC bears back then did.
Looks like BoQ and NAB have passed on most of the RBA's rate cut.

The others will follow.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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davel
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Shadow
2 May 2012, 05:26 PM
Shadow
25 Apr 2012, 10:40 AM
audas
 
Reserve bank is expected to cut by 50 basis points with near zero inflation while ALL BANKS are expected NOT to pass this on

official interest rates are going to be slashed with absolutely no response from the banks
Do you really believe the banks are not going to pass on any of the official rate cuts?

I suppose you thought the same thing in 2008... all the GHPC bears back then did.
Looks like BoQ and NAB have passed on most of the RBA's rate cut.

The others will follow.
Of course 32/50 by NAB constitutes "most". Whats interesting to me is that their SVR is no 6.99%. So they've taken to retail-like pricing models... next time RBA cuts 25, they'll move it to 6.89% :-)

The RBA medicine has been seriously watered down and this of itself is the BIG deal.

Not many may have noticed this, but in the UK a bunch of mortgage providers just jacked their rates, totally independent of the BoE. The model is changing and banks are increasingly going to have to charge more not less for lending, irrespective of what the central banks do.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9236468/Mortgage-rate-misery-for-one-million-borrowers.html
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