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Leith van Onselen deceit exposed on Macrobusiness by Peter Fraser; Unconventional Economist's deceit exposed
Topic Started: 23 Apr 2012, 03:10 PM (7,857 Views)
Catweasel
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peter fraser
25 Apr 2012, 11:33 AM
I don't have a stakeholder cat - I could walk away and do nothing if I chose, but it would be boring.

Do you still fit into your old Goth outfits. Somehow I doubt that your current image reflects your own ideals.

Enjoy your work travels to Vietnam, Korea, and around Japan analysing deals.

Do you really agree with rav that a seller has a vested interest, but a buyer has not? Lets get a little subjective analysis on the transaction, instead of lightweight cryptic sniping across continents.

Lewis Carrol was far better at the cryptic messages, and he was honest - well apart from his inner feelings for Alice.




Catweasel laugh. In the bank's mind, it the stakeholder. But as it see within banking, it largely about a arse-saving and fence sitting. Concept of stakeholder simply a down to strategy (unlike arse saving and fence sitting in real sense).

But seeing it the so prophetic, yet uncommitted to models (except the arse-sitting comment on a data it barely the understand), surely it have the some ideals.
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Trojan
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Shadow
25 Apr 2012, 10:40 AM
Do you really believe the banks are not going to pass on any of the official rate cuts?

I suppose you thought the same thing in 2008... all the GHPC bears back then did.
That was exactly what some people posted in this forum last rate cut - right up till the banks passed on the rate cut!
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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peter fraser
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Catweasel
25 Apr 2012, 11:57 AM
peter fraser
25 Apr 2012, 11:33 AM
I don't have a stakeholder cat - I could walk away and do nothing if I chose, but it would be boring.

Do you still fit into your old Goth outfits. Somehow I doubt that your current image reflects your own ideals.

Enjoy your work travels to Vietnam, Korea, and around Japan analysing deals.

Do you really agree with rav that a seller has a vested interest, but a buyer has not? Lets get a little subjective analysis on the transaction, instead of lightweight cryptic sniping across continents.

Lewis Carrol was far better at the cryptic messages, and he was honest - well apart from his inner feelings for Alice.




Catweasel laugh. In the bank's mind, it the stakeholder. But as it see within banking, it largely about a arse-saving and fence sitting. Concept of stakeholder simply a down to strategy (unlike arse saving and fence sitting in real sense).

But seeing it the so prophetic, yet uncommitted to models (except the arse-sitting comment on a data it barely the understand), surely it have the some ideals.
No banking isn't about fence sitting. Within a sizeable lending section or department, there are far too many egos to allow fence sitting on issues, unless you are content to be a plodder doing menial tasks forever.

It is not just about arse saving, it's about arse kissing as well. Daily life was a lot like this thread, so I left for other pursuits.

The line between courage and stupidity is very thin.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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peter fraser
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audas
25 Apr 2012, 11:40 AM

Well done Peter, finally you are catching on - maybe all that time reading my posts and being humiliated by all and sundry over at Macrobusiness has finally allowed some of what we are all saying to sink in.

Completely shell shocked by your frank and honest conversion to our way of thinking.

Credit where credit is due mate - Kudos to you for listening to us - even if its taken all this time.


:tu: :tu: :tu: :tu:



Now that you have joined our side and seen the light, maybe you can start to convince the other numb nuts around here what the real issues are.

Your capacity to misinterpret is impressive.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Catweasel
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peter fraser
25 Apr 2012, 01:32 PM
No banking isn't about fence sitting. Within a sizeable lending section or department, there are far too many egos to allow fence sitting on issues, unless you are content to be a plodder doing menial tasks forever.

It is not just about arse saving, it's about arse kissing as well. Daily life was a lot like this thread, so I left for other pursuits.

The line between courage and stupidity is very thin.
Catweasel laugh. It's prophetic beliefs about a future and a understanding of a markets seem the very relate to a banking industry. Nothing the better for banking sector to have the stakeholder like a non-scientific thinking the debt peddler. Because in a that the way, it basically the full of waffle to its customer and nothing a bank like a more than a waffle (bank communications a perfect the example of a this).

How does it verify its prophecy and advise to its the clients without base upon a model that appear to be no more than imagine in its mind? Even if read a prophecy of a Joye, its house property data experts, and bank lackys, how on the earth can it verify if it have no the idea of forecasting models it even use? Even if it the did, it have the absolute no idea of a margin of the error (and that just in a historical, not anything to do with a future)?

Any the one with a right the scientific mind would call it the fraud. Idea that suburban debt peddler has the prophetic vision is bordering on the batshit mad.
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genX
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Frank Castle
25 Apr 2012, 07:10 AM
You sound old, are you sure you're gen x?
You sound retarded, you must be a Boomer.
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genX
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peter fraser
24 Apr 2012, 11:28 PM
I think that a simpler explanation of "underwater" was implied by LVO - my take was that he thought that the median now is less than the median then - nothing more complex than that.

It becomes a complex equation when you factor in varying capital gains depending on which city you are in, interest costs, rental costs if you hadn't bought, opportunity cost on the deposit, rates, insurance, maintenance which can vary considerably depending on the condition of the property.

You could spend all day working that out and still be wrong.


Back to this after a good sleep.

I don't think the equations are that complex. The large distribution in property quality probably results in highly variable maintenance costs. Other than that I think it is fairly easy to work out.

I spent about 10 minutes doing 'paper napkin' calculations for my original post late at night with a party raging next door, if I spent all day working on it, I would almost certainly come to the conclusion that home owners in Brisbane, who purchased in Jan 2009 are going backwards in real terms.

Some quick 'paper napkin' calculations.

Lets say the purchase price was $500,000, and that the average rental for the same area is (very generously) $450 per week.

Assuming 7%@25Y term, 3 years holding property:
Total Interest Paid: $82,726
Total Principal Paid: $19,049
Rates & Sewage: $5400 (estimated from a recent conversation on Whirlpool)
Stamp Duty: $1157 (the most generous rate I could find FHB, owner/occupier)
Total outgoings: $108,332

Total Equity: $119,049
Unrealized Capital Gain: $13,000

Nett position: 119,049 + 13,000 - 108,332 = $23,717

Total rental outgoing(ex. water charges), with yearly CPI increases of 3% for the 3 years is $72,327
$100,000 invested in term deposit @ 5.5% for three years: $17,424 interest earned.
Extra disposable income invested in term deposit @ 5.5% for three years (108,332-72,327): $1607 interest earned.

Nett Position: 100,000 + 17,424 + 1607 - 72,327 = $46,704

And that's being as generous as I can make things for the property owner. The nett position of the renter is double that of the property owner.

Is there something wrong with my numbers?

I've done some 'goal seek' on my numbers above, and the situation for the property owner obviously improves if the total capital gain is closer to 7%, however, if property price grows at double the inflation rate for a long period of time, the country quickly becomes a Banana Republic. This is why:

Lets say that median property prices are 3 times median income, and that median income grows at 3%, and median property prices grow at 7%.
In 20 years, median property prices will be 6.4 times median income.
In 30 years, median property prices will be 9 times median income.
In 50 years, median property prices will be 20 times median income!!!

And this is not theoretical either. There are plenty of dictatorships, banana republics and fascist juntas in the last 100 years where exactly that has occurred, and they all suck.

There are only two ways to avoid this fate, one is for property prices to normalize in line with wages, and the other is to inflate the price away. Given that there is absolutely no political or cultural will for the first, we should expect either inflation or a Banana Republic, or both!
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nipa hut
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...................
Edited by nipa hut, 25 Apr 2012, 11:55 PM.
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

genX
25 Apr 2012, 09:11 PM
You sound retarded, you must be a Boomer.
Wrong on both counts sunshine
I am neither retarded nor boomer

But I am GenX
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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peter fraser
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genX
25 Apr 2012, 10:23 PM
peter fraser
24 Apr 2012, 11:28 PM
I think that a simpler explanation of "underwater" was implied by LVO - my take was that he thought that the median now is less than the median then - nothing more complex than that.

It becomes a complex equation when you factor in varying capital gains depending on which city you are in, interest costs, rental costs if you hadn't bought, opportunity cost on the deposit, rates, insurance, maintenance which can vary considerably depending on the condition of the property.

You could spend all day working that out and still be wrong.


Back to this after a good sleep.

I don't think the equations are that complex. The large distribution in property quality probably results in highly variable maintenance costs. Other than that I think it is fairly easy to work out.

I spent about 10 minutes doing 'paper napkin' calculations for my original post late at night with a party raging next door, if I spent all day working on it, I would almost certainly come to the conclusion that home owners in Brisbane, who purchased in Jan 2009 are going backwards in real terms.

Some quick 'paper napkin' calculations.

Lets say the purchase price was $500,000, and that the average rental for the same area is (very generously) $450 per week.

Assuming 7%@25Y term, 3 years holding property:
Total Interest Paid: $82,726
Total Principal Paid: $19,049
Rates & Sewage: $5400 (estimated from a recent conversation on Whirlpool)
Stamp Duty: $1157 (the most generous rate I could find FHB, owner/occupier)
Total outgoings: $108,332

Total Equity: $119,049
Unrealized Capital Gain: $13,000

Nett position: 119,049 + 13,000 - 108,332 = $23,717

Total rental outgoing(ex. water charges), with yearly CPI increases of 3% for the 3 years is $72,327
$100,000 invested in term deposit @ 5.5% for three years: $17,424 interest earned.
Extra disposable income invested in term deposit @ 5.5% for three years (108,332-72,327): $1607 interest earned.

Nett Position: 100,000 + 17,424 + 1607 - 72,327 = $46,704

And that's being as generous as I can make things for the property owner. The nett position of the renter is double that of the property owner.

Is there something wrong with my numbers?

I've done some 'goal seek' on my numbers above, and the situation for the property owner obviously improves if the total capital gain is closer to 7%, however, if property price grows at double the inflation rate for a long period of time, the country quickly becomes a Banana Republic. This is why:

Lets say that median property prices are 3 times median income, and that median income grows at 3%, and median property prices grow at 7%.
In 20 years, median property prices will be 6.4 times median income.
In 30 years, median property prices will be 9 times median income.
In 50 years, median property prices will be 20 times median income!!!

And this is not theoretical either. There are plenty of dictatorships, banana republics and fascist juntas in the last 100 years where exactly that has occurred, and they all suck.

There are only two ways to avoid this fate, one is for property prices to normalize in line with wages, and the other is to inflate the price away. Given that there is absolutely no political or cultural will for the first, we should expect either inflation or a Banana Republic, or both!
I won't check your calculations, if you assure me that they are correct I will take your word for it.

This all started because I made a statement three years ago in January 2009 saying that it was a good time to buy. It was never only about Brisbane. You will find that Brisbane's median has been forced down more than other capital cities due to the Floods in January 2011 - had those floods not have occurred it is reasonable to argue that the median would be higher right now.

Looking beyond Brisbane, what is your calculation for Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart, and Perth, and when you have aggregated that to give us a rounded result for all Australian Capital Cities, how does that compare with Steven Keens prediction of a 40% fall from around the same time.

In January 2009 that call was a brave one because almost all economists and media entertainers were still calling for spectacular falls in median prices, but I was seeing data from within the industry, as I am today. Up until Q4 2008 I was bearish, but then we saw rate falls and people started buying, and I could see that change.

There is a time lapse between when people sign contracts to buy a house, and when those sales get reported in lending commitments and housing transactions with the ABS. What is being seen on the ground today, becomes data later on.

In January 2009 there was worse advice being liberally handed out by others than that one statement that I made. However assuming that some people think that I was wrong, my question to them is - have all of your own statements over the last three years been 100% accurate?

If David Carter was giving his "Don't Buy Now" advice in January 2009, a hell of a lot more people would be worse off as a result of taking that advice.






Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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