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Leith van Onselen deceit exposed on Macrobusiness by Peter Fraser; Unconventional Economist's deceit exposed
Topic Started: 23 Apr 2012, 03:10 PM (7,853 Views)
Strindberg
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This is the blog.

In it, Leith van Onselen digs up an old comment made by Peter Fraser back in January 2009.

This is Leith's comment:

Quote:
 
Unconventional Economist
April 23, 2012 at 10:45 am

Peter. I seem to recall you ‘advising‘ first home buyers to purchase back in early 2009:

“BUY PROPERTY NOW – 12/01/2009 – If you are a first home buyer, you will not have a better opportunity than right now to get into your own place courtesy of the Federal Governments generous grant, and low interest rates, with the prospect of more rate cuts in February and March.”

Most buyers from your home town – Brisbane – that headed your ‘advice’ would now be underwater, given that Brisbane home prices are down roughly -11% since peak according to RP Data and down by over -4% since the start of 2008!

People in glass houses….


Leith makes the false and deceitful allegation that Peter's comment would have led "MOST" buyers to be underwater now. He makes this false and deceitful claim by alluding to two moments in the past when prices were higher than when Peter made his comment.
Obviously the correct and honest way to judge Peter comment is to compare prices when he made the claim with now. But Leith hasn't done that. He shiftily and deceitfully chose two other irrelevant moments when prices at both times were higher than when Peter made his comment.

But the sycophantic Beiber like school girl MB blogger fans applauded Leith for his totally deceitful post and attacked Peter with comments like:
Quote:
 
Aristophrenia
April 23, 2012 at 10:26 am

You are a spruiker from you know which site – it amazes me you are even allowed on here.

and;
Quote:
 
You are, in fact, a paid troll.

So what is the truth regarding Peter's comments in January 2009? The truth is it was great advice for FHBs in Brisbane at that time. Peter provided the data here:
Quote:
 
Peter Fraser
April 23, 2012 at 12:13 pm

Thanks Dave BD – you are right – data doesn’t lie.

I’m looking at my graph for the LGA of Brisbane which tells me that the median price of a house in Brisbane rose from $480,000 in Q1 2009 to $583,750 at it’s peak in Q1 2010 and has since fallen to $560,000 in Q4 2011. It has flatlined since then.

So I guess that those poor suckers who took my one piece of market advice back in Q1 2009 have received very generous grants that are no longer available, very generous stamp duty concessions that are no longer available, and the value of their median dwelling has risen by 16.6% despite floods that are still affecting values in Brisbane.

Leith's accusation that most Brisbane buyers in Jan 2009 would now be underwater is a lie. The LGA confirm it to be a lie. The ABS also show Brisbane prices to be higher in Dec/2011 (latest available) than when Peter made his comment in January 2009.
Leith has lied and used deceptive figures from irrelevent moments in time to support his lie.

Peter deserves an apology and Leith deserves the sack for his serial misinformation.

Edited by Strindberg, 23 Apr 2012, 03:34 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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TED BULLPIT
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Im sure Mr Fraser did not need this , he has been shafted by the bears all morning.

In JANUARY 09 . I am sure I could find a many number of properties that are now cheaper than in jan 09 , I am sure Mr Fraser can too ;)
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muzza
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So what ????
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Strindberg
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muzza
23 Apr 2012, 03:21 PM
So what ????
I think it worthwhile to expose dishonesty and deceit in house price discussions. Don't you?
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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TED BULLPIT
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Strindberg
23 Apr 2012, 03:30 PM
muzza
23 Apr 2012, 03:21 PM
So what ????
I think it worthwhile to expose dishonesty and deceit in house price discussions. Don't you?
Yes, that is why I am here :D
Edited by TED BULLPIT, 23 Apr 2012, 03:43 PM.
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georgie
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Wait wait wait......

Buying a property is usually a long term investment. 3 years+ at the minimum. If I buy a property now and then in 5 years time the market crashes 50% it was a bad investment. First time buyers don't buy and flip usually they buy and hold and raise a family. There for PF's advice was wrong because the majority of FHB who purchased in Brisbane with a standard 90%-95% leverage will have lost their entire deposit and some.

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TED BULLPIT
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georgie
23 Apr 2012, 03:37 PM
Wait wait wait......

Buying a property is usually a long term investment. 3 years+ at the minimum. If I buy a property now and then in 5 years time the market crashes 50% it was a bad investment. First time buyers don't buy and flip usually they buy and hold and raise a family. There for PF's advice was wrong because the majority of FHB who purchased in Brisbane with a standard 90%-95% leverage will have lost their entire deposit and some.

Yes Mr Frasers advice was wrong.

And now it seems the bulls are pawning one another , why dont you join in Mr Castle , YOU ARE AN EXPERT :lol , before your nightshift starts that is.

Hey Mr Castle , you can now see what its like to get treated the same way as you treat other people , I hope you have enjoyed a bit of your own medicine. ;)
Edited by TED BULLPIT, 23 Apr 2012, 04:16 PM.
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davel
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Peter doesnt deserve the abuse he's getting on that thread, its embarrasing.

I dont think UE was that far out of line with his comments though... but he can't say boo without Strindberg getting on his case :D
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peter fraser
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georgie
23 Apr 2012, 03:37 PM
Wait wait wait......

Buying a property is usually a long term investment. 3 years+ at the minimum. If I buy a property now and then in 5 years time the market crashes 50% it was a bad investment. First time buyers don't buy and flip usually they buy and hold and raise a family. There for PF's advice was wrong because the majority of FHB who purchased in Brisbane with a standard 90%-95% leverage will have lost their entire deposit and some.

Let me make it clear that it was not my intention to "best" anyone over at MB.

However it is just not true that Brisbane values are below the prices available in Jan 2009 and certainly in other capital cities they are well ahead.

If you actually read what I wrote you will find I was explaining the generous FHB and boost available at that time.


For those who are reluctant to believe, dig up the medians for Brisbane in Jan 2009 and now.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Catweasel
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peter fraser
23 Apr 2012, 05:46 PM
Let me make it clear that it was not my intention to "best" anyone over at MB.

However it is just not true that Brisbane values are below the prices available in Jan 2009 and certainly in other capital cities they are well ahead.

If you actually read what I wrote you will find I was explaining the generous FHB and boost available at that time.


For those who are reluctant to believe, dig up the medians for Brisbane in Jan 2009 and now.
Catweasel believes it. it quite the amazing that it has to battle contrarian blogger over list of number. But that the world it now occupies.
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