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Australia is screwed; Mish again
Topic Started: 23 Apr 2012, 07:57 AM (4,341 Views)
peter fraser
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Catweasel
23 Apr 2012, 02:29 PM
peter fraser
23 Apr 2012, 02:11 PM


We will see how it works out.
Catweasel laugh.

Crikey, if there were ever the express of a unknown future, it have to be the this one. It like the listening to a cardigan or the chaplain.

Catweasel say but cannot it not extend the mind map a little the further? Expert/white shoe/mouzealots screaming for a eventuality locked into a world of the certainty.

And a mouse the one who have to stump up a risky.

All another one to do is to clip the ticket of its risky.

But why a narrative basically a same as in a 2007 or a 2009 or when the ever the mental mass decide something change for a better?

If mouse not the so mentally weak, it could be classed as batshit mad.
Cat - it must be apparent even to you that a sensible discussion with Ted is out of the question.

I took the course of least resistance.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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peter fraser
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audas
24 Apr 2012, 12:26 AM
Try telling that to every one in Ireland, Spain, Greece, U.S, U.K etc, etc ,etc

Seriously what a laugh. The world has crashed - quite simply the whole planet - there has been no recovery anywhere except government stimulus - thats it. End of Story.

We are in the midst of the worst global down turn in the history of the planet outside the great depression - and it is looking increasingly like we are heading there again - and you write this shit ?


What a deeply, seriously ignorant thing to write- profoundly stupid.


I agree about the "Ireland, Spain, Greece, U.S, U.K" but I'm not so sure about the etc etc etc.

In reality it is not a truly global event because at this moment in time not all countries are affected, and some are prospering.

In fact there are enough "different' examples to suggest that it's possibly the USA that is in fact "different"

"The whole planet" - seriously that is just plain wrong, isn't it....

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

audas
24 Apr 2012, 12:26 AM
Try telling that to every one in Ireland, Spain, Greece, U.S, U.K etc, etc ,etc

Seriously what a laugh. The world has crashed - quite simply the whole planet - there has been no recovery anywhere except government stimulus - thats it. End of Story.

We are in the midst of the worst global down turn in the history of the planet outside the great depression - and it is looking increasingly like we are heading there again - and you write this shit ?


What a deeply, seriously ignorant thing to write- profoundly stupid.


Audus, you seem like a smart guy. Please consider what I wrote in another thread:

Quote:
 
People have a number of cognitive biases that encourage irrational beliefs, especially for doom & gloom scenarios. Confirmation bias is a particular malady the effects the bears and the idiots on the Somersoft forums alike: that is, the tendency to look for and/or interpret information in ways that confirm their preconceptions.


Be very careful about falling into the trap of confirmation bias. If you are really interested in where we've come from and where we are headed, consider reading the following book:

Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think
http://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Future-Better-Than-Think/dp/1451614217

You don't have to agree with it, but it will give you some perspective from "the other side" so to speak. We all must be on guard against focusing too much on only information that confirms our existing beliefs.
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audas
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NotFooled
24 Apr 2012, 09:25 AM

Audus, you seem like a smart guy. Please consider what I wrote in another thread:




Be very careful about falling into the trap of confirmation bias. If you are really interested in where we've come from and where we are headed, consider reading the following book:

Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think
http://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Future-Better-Than-Think/dp/1451614217

You don't have to agree with it, but it will give you some perspective from "the other side" so to speak. We all must be on guard against focusing too much on only information that confirms our existing beliefs.
My point stands - I have no interest in diverting the conversation - what you wrote is pure crap. Just accept it and move on.
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

audas
24 Apr 2012, 09:53 AM
My point stands - I have no interest in diverting the conversation - what you wrote is pure crap. Just accept it and move on.
You responses recently indicate much anger and possibly frustration. Why?
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Catweasel
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NotFooled
24 Apr 2012, 09:58 AM
You responses recently indicate much anger and possibly frustration. Why?
Catweasel say mouse welcome to its battle in sandpit with sparring partner. But that seem to be all it will the get.

On the other paw, it a foolish to abuse confirmation bias in its big flame up. It even claims that no evidence of house price the crash, then goes on to cite "confirmation bias", alongside the link to Amazon. If that the extent of its thought pattern, it will be a best to wind up its sparring partners on a forum. No the deep insight will be a forthcoming. It have all the sophisticate of pub philosophy. Nothing learnt.

If it were really the interest in a knowledge the theory, it always have the Catweasel to challenge. But it not. So how can it be a taken a serious?
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

Catweasel
24 Apr 2012, 10:10 AM
Catweasel say mouse welcome to its battle in sandpit with sparring partner. But that seem to be all it will the get.

On the other paw, it a foolish to abuse confirmation bias in its big flame up. It even claims that no evidence of house price the crash, then goes on to cite "confirmation bias", alongside the link to Amazon. If that the extent of its thought pattern, it will be a best to wind up its sparring partners on a forum. No the deep insight will be a forthcoming. It have all the sophisticate of pub philosophy. Nothing learnt.

If it were really the interest in a knowledge the theory, it always have the Catweasel to challenge. But it not. So how can it be a taken a serious?
Catweasel can't be debated sensibly because no one knows half the time what Catweasel is talking about :D
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audas
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peter fraser
24 Apr 2012, 09:12 AM
I agree about the "Ireland, Spain, Greece, U.S, U.K" but I'm not so sure about the etc etc etc.

In reality it is not a truly global event because at this moment in time not all countries are affected, and some are prospering.

In fact there are enough "different' examples to suggest that it's possibly the USA that is in fact "different"

"The whole planet" - seriously that is just plain wrong, isn't it....
Yes the whole planet - the United states is absolutely no where near a recovery - if you think that then you are simply cherry picking data to suit your "vision".

The US economy right now is based on four or five of the biggest capital injections in the history of economics - by any standard in any terms. The consequence of those injections has seen the money flow directly to the avenue of least resistance.

As any economics person will tell you it is not the size of the injection it is the quality of the capital and the quality of the aim - Obama basically screwed it up on every single front.

The current unemployment levels in the United States are some of the most distorted I have ever seen - almost ridiculous levels of obfuscation in order to achieve some positive spin - the reality is that simply measuring US unemployment on standards of only 5 years ago reveals levels of %15-17 unemployment. There are many saying it is as high as %22 and went as high as %27 on standard measures.

The only areas of recovery we are seeing are in the major financial areas which were surviving based on HUGE injections of capital and the new government manifesto towards rampant corruption of "look the other way", as some of the most timid, pusillanimous criminal responses imaginable start make ground in the face of unimaginable public out cry at the total complicit and nefarious shennanigins came to light - and again - the financial recovery is driven almost entirely by unsustainable commodity speculation, wealth destruction as banks seek to protect their bottom line and global destruction of basic human freedoms and rights as they seek to lock down the internet and IP capital, etc. There is no US recovery. It was only two weeks ago that the world markets punished the US for not entering into QE3 as it was viewed as entirely necessary - wow - thats a recovered market.

But even worse - the US banks are now staring down the barrel of a second, just as large financial disaster in the student loans fiasco which is almost entirely publicly backed like houseing - here we go again.


Now, please tell me, where these other booming economies are ? China ? No - almost entirely government stimulus and now that is wearing off it too is sliding into the worst possible scenario for Australia. Japan ? About to start borrowing offshore for the first time as it has run out of money with the highest debt ration on earth. Germany ? Tell me you're not fucking serious - you do follow the EU debt crisis.


So lets have it Peter - where are these amazing markets that have emerged from the crippling sovereign debts of - cant wait for this steaming pile of cherry picked isolationist response - let me guess, ummmmmmm .......................Equatorial Guinea ?


People need to deal with my first major post - we are at a global ceiling point in economic growth - there has been global destruction in the middle class consumers capability to consume, there comes a point in diminishing wages when people can no longer buy enough of your product in order to maintain growth - its simple logic.

Secondly - the oil price barrier has been in place now for almost 6 years - any economic recovery is going to be IMMEDIATELY hit for a six by the cost of oil.

Thirdly we have exhausted the MAIN driver in economic growth over the past 15 years - debt.

Fourthly the Asian miracle is predicated ENTIRELY based on export to a wealthy west, China and India are simply not going to be able to lift their populations out of grinding poverty without the west consuming - not going to happen, there is no way they will be able to accommodate their entire population as middle class consumers, not even a majority, there will ALWAYS remain a majority of impoverished people in these countries engendering permanent civil discord - there is no way around that.

China has clearly reached a plateau in its growth trajectory based on its previous model - clearly - the only option for it now is to transform into a consumer society and not rely on the west - this is simply going to place enormous burdens on global resources and immediately drive prices for everything through the roof causing global instability.

These things are not hard to understand - they are not secrets, they are certainly not opinions or ideas - they are pure simple factual based reasoning and logic - a two year would come to the same conclusion if they did not have some vested interest in these things NOT BEING the case.

On top of all this - as mentioned - is the issue of climate change.


The only way countries are going to be able to get out of this issue is creating a new paradigm - we need to shift AWAY from globalization and reembark on domestic sustainability with products designed for longevity, products capable of being serviced here in Australia by our own technology creating maximum employment, transform ourselves into a technology economy, YES we can still mine resources, but most importantly we need to aim for economic equilibrium and not economic growth. This has to be the new paradigm. Following from that should come depopulation as we decrease are population and maintain our economic equilibrium we are able to share an ever greater share of the pie.

Eternal economic growth on a planet with finite resources is insanity of the highest order - one day the issue must be addressed and that day is right now.

It is the only way - we have plateaued on a global scale.
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

audas
24 Apr 2012, 10:18 AM
Eternal economic growth on a planet with finite resources is insanity of the highest order - one day the issue must be addressed and that day is right now.

It is the only way - we have plateaued on a global scale.
That day is most definitely not right now. You are making the mistake of over-predicting the short-term. There s plenty of momentum in the system to keep it going without any major breakthroughs or developments. But to think that economic and technologic progress has stopped would be naive in the extreme. In fact, technological progress is accelerating exponentially and this will provide opportunities that you simply cant see right now.
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peter fraser
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audas
24 Apr 2012, 10:18 AM
peter fraser
24 Apr 2012, 09:12 AM
I agree about the "Ireland, Spain, Greece, U.S, U.K" but I'm not so sure about the etc etc etc.

In reality it is not a truly global event because at this moment in time not all countries are affected, and some are prospering.

In fact there are enough "different' examples to suggest that it's possibly the USA that is in fact "different"

"The whole planet" - seriously that is just plain wrong, isn't it....
Yes the whole planet - the United states is absolutely no where near a recovery - if you think that then you are simply cherry picking data to suit your "vision".

The US economy right now is based on four or five of the biggest capital injections in the history of economics - by any standard in any terms. The consequence of those injections has seen the money flow directly to the avenue of least resistance.

As any economics person will tell you it is not the size of the injection it is the quality of the capital and the quality of the aim - Obama basically screwed it up on every single front.

The current unemployment levels in the United States are some of the most distorted I have ever seen - almost ridiculous levels of obfuscation in order to achieve some positive spin - the reality is that simply measuring US unemployment on standards of only 5 years ago reveals levels of %15-17 unemployment. There are many saying it is as high as %22 and went as high as %27 on standard measures.

The only areas of recovery we are seeing are in the major financial areas which were surviving based on HUGE injections of capital and the new government manifesto towards rampant corruption of "look the other way", as some of the most timid, pusillanimous criminal responses imaginable start make ground in the face of unimaginable public out cry at the total complicit and nefarious shennanigins came to light - and again - the financial recovery is driven almost entirely by unsustainable commodity speculation, wealth destruction as banks seek to protect their bottom line and global destruction of basic human freedoms and rights as they seek to lock down the internet and IP capital, etc. There is no US recovery. It was only two weeks ago that the world markets punished the US for not entering into QE3 as it was viewed as entirely necessary - wow - thats a recovered market.

But even worse - the US banks are now staring down the barrel of a second, just as large financial disaster in the student loans fiasco which is almost entirely publicly backed like houseing - here we go again.


Now, please tell me, where these other booming economies are ? China ? No - almost entirely government stimulus and now that is wearing off it too is sliding into the worst possible scenario for Australia. Japan ? About to start borrowing offshore for the first time as it has run out of money with the highest debt ration on earth. Germany ? Tell me you're not fucking serious - you do follow the EU debt crisis.


So lets have it Peter - where are these amazing markets that have emerged from the crippling sovereign debts of - cant wait for this steaming pile of cherry picked isolationist response - let me guess, ummmmmmm .......................Equatorial Guinea ?


People need to deal with my first major post - we are at a global ceiling point in economic growth - there has been global destruction in the middle class consumers capability to consume, there comes a point in diminishing wages when people can no longer buy enough of your product in order to maintain growth - its simple logic.

Secondly - the oil price barrier has been in place now for almost 6 years - any economic recovery is going to be IMMEDIATELY hit for a six by the cost of oil.

Thirdly we have exhausted the MAIN driver in economic growth over the past 15 years - debt.

Fourthly the Asian miracle is predicated ENTIRELY based on export to a wealthy west, China and India are simply not going to be able to lift their populations out of grinding poverty without the west consuming - not going to happen, there is no way they will be able to accommodate their entire population as middle class consumers, not even a majority, there will ALWAYS remain a majority of impoverished people in these countries engendering permanent civil discord - there is no way around that.

China has clearly reached a plateau in its growth trajectory based on its previous model - clearly - the only option for it now is to transform into a consumer society and not rely on the west - this is simply going to place enormous burdens on global resources and immediately drive prices for everything through the roof causing global instability.

These things are not hard to understand - they are not secrets, they are certainly not opinions or ideas - they are pure simple factual based reasoning and logic - a two year would come to the same conclusion if they did not have some vested interest in these things NOT BEING the case.

On top of all this - as mentioned - is the issue of climate change.


The only way countries are going to be able to get out of this issue is creating a new paradigm - we need to shift AWAY from globalization and reembark on domestic sustainability with products designed for longevity, products capable of being serviced here in Australia by our own technology creating maximum employment, transform ourselves into a technology economy, YES we can still mine resources, but most importantly we need to aim for economic equilibrium and not economic growth. This has to be the new paradigm. Following from that should come depopulation as we decrease are population and maintain our economic equilibrium we are able to share an ever greater share of the pie.

Eternal economic growth on a planet with finite resources is insanity of the highest order - one day the issue must be addressed and that day is right now.

It is the only way - we have plateaued on a global scale.
You raise some very good points. I agree with you on climate change, and I will add food, water, clean air, and peak oil to your list. Humans being humans will work hard to push back the day of reckoning on those issues, and we may never see that day in our lifetime, although I'm sure it will come, and it will probably be in this century.

I'm equally sure that when we have to make a change, we will develop the technology to do so.

I agree that our financial system is broken, but while we can exchange a hand full of paper notes or some binary numbers on a piece of plastic for a loaf of bread it will continue to work.

It's my negativity that keeps me positive about the future.

Cheers...

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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