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New home buyers boost property sales; Perth property sales in the March quarter reached its highest level in two years
Topic Started: 21 Apr 2012, 06:49 AM (4,041 Views)
Jimbo
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Mike
23 Apr 2012, 08:37 PM
Half really, you do know Iron ore hit $151 last week up 9% for the quater. Currently sits at $148 a ton. I think you need to learn to count. Care to tell me what the price of Iron ore was when this boom or super cycle started, under $40 a ton.

Why are Iron Ore prices rising if as you claim demand is slowing in China? Perhaps you need to study economics and understand that over 8% GDP growth in China means it will need alot more Iron Ore this year and in future years then it did in 2011 and 2010 and earlier. The price of Iron Ore will remain high for along time, it will move with in a range but it certainly wont collapse.

Keep an eye on the US economy if it continues to pickup steam it will drag China and India higher further increasing demand. Commodities could well hit much higher prices.

When you look at the 110 year average of resources, most metals are still below the long term average and by a big margin. The only exceptions are Iron Ore, Copper and Gold. Most other metals have signifcantly higher prices in the 1970s or early 20th century.

What do you think will happen if the US grows at 4%, which pushes China back up to 10% growth, and India to 8%+, certainly possible as we move into 2013. What do you think will happen to commodity prices then.
Classic Mike prediction.....
Edited by Jimbo, 6 Sep 2014, 07:35 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Perthite
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It's enough to make a man blush...

:lol
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Mike
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Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 07:34 PM
Classic Mike prediction.....
US economy just grew at 4.2%. Strongest job creation since the 2nd half of the 1990's.

As I stated back in 2012 as the US picks up steam so will the rest of the world, including China and India.

P.S Thanks though for putting a nice thread about increasing Perth property sales to the top of the forum. That will help your cause.

Edited by Mike, 6 Sep 2014, 10:46 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
6 Sep 2014, 10:44 PM
US economy just grew at 4.2%. Strongest job creation since the 2nd half of the 1990's.

Lots and lots of low paid part time jobs with real wages falling and $1.00 of debt buying 8 cents of GDP growth. Increasing QE and ZIRP.

Righto Mike,

Meanwhile, if it is growing at 4%, how come the Iron Ore price has tanked? Didn't you claim that 4% US growth would lead to 10% Chinese growth and support the IO price?

Quote:
 
The price of Iron Ore will remain high for along time, it will move with in a range but it certainly wont collapse.


total fail
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 11:05 PM
Lots and lots of low paid part time jobs with real wages falling and $1.00 of debt buying 8 cents of GDP growth. Increasing QE and ZIRP.

Righto Mike,

Meanwhile, if it is growing at 4%, how come the Iron Ore price has tanked? Didn't you claim that 4% US growth would lead to 10% Chinese growth and support the IO price?




total fail
The US has only just hit 4.2% growth it will take some time for this growth to work its way through the world economy and it will over time.

Iron Ore price will move up and down over time, in 3 months we could be talking about why Iron Ore is back to $100 a ton or why it has fallen further.

Iron Ore has little impact on the overall economy. It affects Government revenue more then anything else.

Barnett will have little option but to increase Royalties as the Fed Govt will not rebalance the GST to cater for falling Iron Ore prices even though they cut our GST due to increasing Iron Ore Royalties. Simple fact is they can buy more votes over East using WA money, that is politics.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
6 Sep 2014, 11:18 PM
Iron Ore has little impact on the overall economy. It affects Government revenue more then anything else.

Iron Ore makes up 1/5th of our exports.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Quote:
 
Meanwhile, if it is growing at 4%, how come the Iron Ore price has tanked? Didn't you claim that 4% US growth would lead to 10% Chinese growth and support the IO price?


Quote:
 
Quote:
 


[quote]Iron ore lump rose $88m (7%), with quantities up 11% and unit values down 4%.
Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $115m (15%), with quantities up 14% and unit values up 1%.

Partly offsetting this rise was exports to Japan, down $35m (11%), with quantities up 1% and unit values down 12%.

Iron ore fines rose $788m (20%), with quantities up 7% and unit values up 12%.
Exports to: ◾China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $581m (18%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 15%
[/big]◾Japan rose $176m (56%), with quantities up 72% and unit values down 9%.


You need to really look into data carefully and stop just looking at the moving spot price of Iron Ore, it may open you're eyes.

Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 11:21 PM
Iron Ore makes up 1/5th of our exports.
Yes and read what I just posted, Iron Ore exports doing very well indeed.
Edited by Mike, 6 Sep 2014, 11:25 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike,

How much steel does the Chinese economy use for construction and infrastructure?

Ever been to China Mike?


Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 11:40 PM
Mike,

How much steel does the Chinese economy use for construction and infrastructure?

Ever been to China Mike?


Why don't you tell us. Educate us mere plebs, even though we have talked about this same topic repeatedly in the past. It is like ground hog day with you.

Go on tell us how much steel demand will fall due to falling Chinese property prices? Lets repeat this storey for the 100th time.

I'm just going to ask you one question, rather then go through all this middle ground yet again.

In a worst case scenario for China what will be the Chinese Communist Government response to a crash in property prices or its economy. What effect will this have on Australia or the world.

Do you think the Communist Government will sit buy and watch its economy crumble, riots or revolution in the streets materialise due to the poor economy.

What is you're forecast for a worst case scenario, educate us all.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
7 Sep 2014, 12:43 AM
Why don't you tell us. Educate us mere plebs, even though we have talked about this same topic repeatedly in the past. It is like ground hog day with you.

Go on tell us how much steel demand will fall due to falling Chinese property prices? Lets repeat this storey for the 100th time.

I'm just going to ask you one question, rather then go through all this middle ground yet again.

In a worst case scenario for China what will be the Chinese Communist Government response to a crash in property prices or its economy. What effect will this have on Australia or the world.

Do you think the Communist Government will sit buy and watch its economy crumble, riots or revolution in the streets materialise due to the poor economy.

What is you're forecast for a worst case scenario, educate us all.
If you were the Chinese Government and you didn't want your housing market to collapse, what would you do?

I would slow the rate of construction.

Because the simple fact is, that if you want to hold the price of something, you reduce the rate of supply.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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