will likely continue to experience growth as long as the boom continues.
I agree Rav, that when a boom goes bust, prices that were inflated by said boom can crash hard. And that resources have long been cyclical.
I have always assumed that when booms of this nature bust, it is very sudden and doesn't petter out. Does anyone have stats on this, say using Japan as a model? If China were to replicate Japan, what would it look like? What would be the signs?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
It might be time to remind people how much Iron Ore has increased since 2001. The current Iron Ore price is between 700-800% greater then in 2000.
Chinese domestic demand has increased greatly over the past 2-3 years, and they are certainly moving away from an export dominated economy. One of the biggest comming shifts in the global economy over the next 10 years is how do we supply enough resources and products to China. It is no co-incidence that as the same time Chinese consumer demand is increasing as a share of its economy and US exports have grown at an annual rate of 16% per year for the last 2 years. In time the world will supply China products, we are just at the very start of that cycle.
Quote:
THE record-high iron ore price is set to tumble over the next seven years as burgeoning supply in Africa hits the international market for the commodity, according to a new research. A report partly funded by the federal Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism and authored by Australian National University economist Luke Hurst, predicts the current high iron ore price, at $150 per tonne is likely to fall back to around $80 per tonne. If more of the planned African capacity comes on stream, prices could further tumble to $60 per tonne in the next seven years, a price drop to a level not seen since the darkest days of the global financial crisis, when the demands for commodities crashed. Advertisement: Story continues below Mr Hurst's research is based on a study of 17 key iron ore projects in West and Central Africa and provides new estimates on the new additional production capacity according to their level of risks and likelihood of success.
THE record-high iron ore price is set to tumble over the next seven years as burgeoning supply in Africa hits the international market for the commodity, according to a new research. A report partly funded by the federal Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism and authored by Australian National University economist Luke Hurst, predicts the current high iron ore price, at $150 per tonne is likely to fall back to around $80 per tonne.
That will be partly offset by a fall in the Australian Dollar, so the net effective rate is probably better than the $80 per tonne indicated.
The boom will end eventually, but we have never before seen a situation where around 3 billion people are being lifted into a higher level of wealth and income in China, India, and several other nations. There will also be a flow on effect to those african nations as well. Brazil is becoming wealthy, and the Favelas occupied by the poor are being sold for high prices. We are looking at a major change to the economic balance of the world, and it will last for decades.
It will bring not only wealth to many, but we should expect civil unrest and even war if trading conditions turn nasty for any of the developing countries. It won't all be beer and skittles.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
That will be partly offset by a fall in the Australian Dollar, so the net effective rate is probably better than the $80 per tonne indicated.
The boom will end eventually, but we have never before seen a situation where around 3 billion people are being lifted into a higher level of wealth and income in China, India, and several other nations. There will also be a flow on effect to those african nations as well. Brazil is becoming wealthy, and the Favelas occupied by the poor are being sold for high prices. We are looking at a major change to the economic balance of the world, and it will last for decades.
It will bring not only wealth to many, but we should expect civil unrest and even war if trading conditions turn nasty for any of the developing countries. It won't all be beer and skittles.
Exactly how I see things.
The world is on the verge of a SUPER BOOM.
The only thing that may stop it is if the Anglo-sphere spits the dummy at no longer being top dog.
But assuming a massive war does not eventuate, the question is will Australia get its cut of the action from this SUPER BOOM, and how will it be distributed throughout the community.
Unfortunately I see problems here. Our Governments seem to have moved the political spectrum to the right.
And with that policies for maintaining a equilibrium re wealth distribution have gone out the Window.
I see the middleclass being eaten alive in Aus over the next decade as welfare is means tested out of existence.
To ensure that you are not a victim of this, you need to invest, in Real Estate of course.
The only thing that may stop it is if the Anglo-sphere spits the dummy at no longer being top dog.
But assuming a massive war does not eventuate, the question is will Australia get its cut of the action from this SUPER BOOM, and how will it be distributed throughout the community.
Unfortunately I see problems here. Our Governments seem to have moved the political spectrum to the right.
And with that policies for maintaining a equilibrium re wealth distribution have gone out the Window.
I see the middleclass being eaten alive in Aus over the next decade as welfare is means tested out of existence.
To ensure that you are not a victim of this, you need to invest, in Real Estate of course.
Mike , you sound like a timing nightmare, did your wife hang around
The fact is China is slowing , our mining is slowing and our iron ore prices dropped from $190 per tonne to $130 a tonne in a matter of months. Does mean anything to you MIKE?
With Melbourne prices being smashed to oblivion this year you think you will see growth in a dying industry , a dying industry that is currently our backbone, Emerging countries and econmies will mine there shit flr much cheaper than us once the ball gets rolling on there projects which it already is.
MIKE
Ted, how did you arrive at such an ill informed opinion that the mining industry is going under.
I think i need to put you over my knee and spank you with some facts about WA mining.
1. The iron ore spot price has risen to over $140/t and is tipped to go over $150 this year 2. iron ore exports to china rose in feb 3. Gold the other big commodity coming out of WA is insanely high at 1600/oz and tipped to go even higher 4. There is over $147 billion in new investment coming into resource investments 5. Other developing countries need to have the resource in the ground, the only threat to us would be africa, from which resource companys are abandoning due to high risk.
there are many other points i could go on with but i think that will do it.
You are another person who thinks they know what is going on but has been left in the dark
Your points apart from number two are speculation .
Number 1 , you want to tell me prices are EXPECTED to go to $150 per tonne , they are more likely to be $130 or less ,EXPECTATIONS - you mean like all the other expectations that are continually downgraded.
You wish to put me over your knee and spank me , thats very funny son , but the reality is I would bend you over a barrel and then in my best Arnold Schwarzenegger voice , would say " OOZE YOR DADDY , NOW"
1. The iron ore spot price has risen to over $140/t and is tipped to go over $150 this year 2. iron ore exports to china rose in feb
I don't take "tips/predictions" on commodity prices seriously.
So lets focus on the current.
$140/t is a very high price - obviously a material drop from $190, but high in historical terms and substantially higher than the marginal cost of production.
Polish it up bubblebum.
In september we used to make $140 dollars profit per tonne . We know make closer to $80 per tonne profit , so almost half of what we were getting around six months ago.
The commodity prices of iron ore are more likely to go down that up , just as we have seen .
Its all over for the bulls now
Yoy are all jibering crap from your rear end , that is a fact.
The only thing that may stop it is if the Anglo-sphere spits the dummy at no longer being top dog.
But assuming a massive war does not eventuate, the question is will Australia get its cut of the action from this SUPER BOOM, and how will it be distributed throughout the community.
Unfortunately I see problems here. Our Governments seem to have moved the political spectrum to the right.
And with that policies for maintaining a equilibrium re wealth distribution have gone out the Window.
I see the middleclass being eaten alive in Aus over the next decade as welfare is means tested out of existence.
To ensure that you are not a victim of this, you need to invest, in Real Estate of course.
That will be partly offset by a fall in the Australian Dollar, so the net effective rate is probably better than the $80 per tonne indicated.
The boom will end eventually, but we have never before seen a situation where around 3 billion people are being lifted into a higher level of wealth and income in China, India, and several other nations. There will also be a flow on effect to those african nations as well. Brazil is becoming wealthy, and the Favelas occupied by the poor are being sold for high prices. We are looking at a major change to the economic balance of the world, and it will last for decades.
It will bring not only wealth to many, but we should expect civil unrest and even war if trading conditions turn nasty for any of the developing countries. It won't all be beer and skittles.
Exactly how I see things.
The world is on the verge of a SUPER BOOM.
The only thing that may stop it is if the Anglo-sphere spits the dummy at no longer being top dog.
But assuming a massive war does not eventuate, the question is will Australia get its cut of the action from this SUPER BOOM, and how will it be distributed throughout the community.
Unfortunately I see problems here. Our Governments seem to have moved the political spectrum to the right.
And with that policies for maintaining a equilibrium re wealth distribution have gone out the Window.
I see the middleclass being eaten alive in Aus over the next decade as welfare is means tested out of existence.
To ensure that you are not a victim of this, you need to invest, in Real Estate of course.
I think there was a super boom between your ears that's left nothing but smoke and ashes.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy