In the last decade China has moved 200 million people into the middle class, out of a population of 1,300 million. It is estimated by 2020 China will have a middle class of 500 million, more then double it present number. Even with 500 million in the middle class, China is still left with 800 million people who want a richer life like we live. If we have boomed in the last 8 years or so, while China urbanised 200 million people, what will be the affects on Australia as China urbanises another 300 million over the next 8 years or more? What will be the affects over the next 10-20 years as the next 800 million urbanise.
India, what affect will india have on Australia has its population moves into the middle class. Take into account our exports to India have grown at a faster rate then exports to China in 2011. How will providing resources to another 1,400 million people affect the Australian economy.
What many of you bears fail to see is the larger pictures. Stop worrying about stort term property prices, who cares if they go up and down 10-20% in the short term, all markets go up and down. Look at the long term structual changes at play. We are at a pivotal point in Human history as 3 billion people urbanise and move into the middle class, so far the world has modernised just over 1 billion people in the west. What affect will 3 billion modernised people have on Australias economy directly to our north, taking into account we have the resources they need, and not just the stuff you dig up, but the food to feed them. Why do you think Chinese state owne business are buying up Australian farm land, any guesses?
In the last decade China has moved 200 million people into the middle class, out of a population of 1,300 million. It is estimated by 2020 China will have a middle class of 500 million, more then double it present number. Even with 500 million in the middle class, China is still left with 800 million people who want a richer life like we live. If we have boomed in the last 8 years or so, while China urbanised 200 million people, what will be the affects on Australia as China urbanises another 300 million over the next 8 years or more? What will be the affects over the next 10-20 years as the next 800 million urbanise.
India, what affect will india have on Australia has its population moves into the middle class. Take into account our exports to India have grown at a faster rate then exports to China in 2011. How will providing resources to another 1,400 million people affect the Australian economy.
What many of you bears fail to see is the larger pictures. Stop worrying about stort term property prices, who cares if they go up and down 10-20% in the short term, all markets go up and down. Look at the long term structual changes at play. We are at a pivotal point in Human history as 3 billion people urbanise and move into the middle class, so far the world has modernised just over 1 billion people in the west. What affect will 3 billion modernised people have on Australias economy directly to our north, taking into account we have the resources they need, and not just the stuff you dig up, but the food to feed them. Why do you think Chinese state owne business are buying up Australian farm land, any guesses?
ever heard of Hukou system?
Chinese peasants legally cannot jump into middle class, they can move to city only temporarily if "visa" is approved and they have to return back after expiration
In the last decade China has moved 200 million people into the middle class, out of a population of 1,300 million. It is estimated by 2020 China will have a middle class of 500 million, more then double it present number. Even with 500 million in the middle class, China is still left with 800 million people who want a richer life like we live. If we have boomed in the last 8 years or so, while China urbanised 200 million people, what will be the affects on Australia as China urbanises another 300 million over the next 8 years or more? What will be the affects over the next 10-20 years as the next 800 million urbanise.
India, what affect will india have on Australia has its population moves into the middle class. Take into account our exports to India have grown at a faster rate then exports to China in 2011. How will providing resources to another 1,400 million people affect the Australian economy.
What many of you bears fail to see is the larger pictures. Stop worrying about stort term property prices, who cares if they go up and down 10-20% in the short term, all markets go up and down. Look at the long term structual changes at play. We are at a pivotal point in Human history as 3 billion people urbanise and move into the middle class, so far the world has modernised just over 1 billion people in the west. What affect will 3 billion modernised people have on Australias economy directly to our north, taking into account we have the resources they need, and not just the stuff you dig up, but the food to feed them. Why do you think Chinese state owne business are buying up Australian farm land, any guesses?
ever heard of Hukou system?
Chinese peasants legally cannot jump into middle class, they can move to city only temporarily if "visa" is approved and they have to return back after expiration
So I guess the 93 cities with a population larger then Sydney in China is a mythical dream.
Most of the peasants the move due to work are housed by their employers in cheap dorms. The 200 million who have entered the middle class live in the city. It is stated Chines Govt policy to increase this number to 500 million by 2020. This still leaves 800 million peasants with the current population.
So do some rough maths on the required resources to house another 300 million people, almost the population of the entire USA over the next 8 years. Then try to tell me resources prices are going to collapse. Once your done there start working on India and the rest of south east asia.
So I guess the 93 cities with a population larger then Sydney in China is a mythical dream.
Most of the peasants the move due to work are housed by their employers in cheap dorms. The 200 million who have entered the middle class live in the city. It is stated Chines Govt policy to increase this number to 500 million by 2020. This still leaves 800 million peasants with the current population.
So do some rough maths on the required resources to house another 300 million people, almost the population of the entire USA over the next 8 years. Then try to tell me resources prices are going to collapse. Once your done there start working on India and the rest of south east asia.
Given the socio-economic narrative that the western world remains wedded to, I think China might not be able to rely on a growth model underpinned by booming exports. I think it will have to increase it's domestic consumption.
That said, I'm less bearish on China than I am on the west - the Chinese government appears to better understand exactly what it is in command of.
Still, I'm not sure it's wise to regard resource prices as being unshakable. All booms end - simple as that.
So I guess the 93 cities with a population larger then Sydney in China is a mythical dream.
Most of the peasants the move due to work are housed by their employers in cheap dorms. The 200 million who have entered the middle class live in the city. It is stated Chines Govt policy to increase this number to 500 million by 2020. This still leaves 800 million peasants with the current population.
So do some rough maths on the required resources to house another 300 million people, almost the population of the entire USA over the next 8 years. Then try to tell me resources prices are going to collapse. Once your done there start working on India and the rest of south east asia.
Given the socio-economic narrative that the western world remains wedded to, I think China might not be able to rely on a growth model underpinned by booming exports. I think it will have to increase it's domestic consumption.
That said, I'm less bearish on China than I am on the west - the Chinese government appears to better understand exactly what it is in command of.
Still, I'm not sure it's wise to regard resource prices as being unshakable. All booms end - simple as that.
It might be time to remind people how much Iron Ore has increased since 2001. The current Iron Ore price is between 700-800% greater then in 2000.
Cement production was up 7.9%, Electricity production was up 7.2%. Chinese stockpiles of Iron Ore are high at present but have begun to decline as demand picks up in China. Iron Ore prices are up 9% for the year to date reaching $151 a ton last week. Are we in a super cycle or is it a long term structual change as 1.3 billion urbanise changes world demand.
Chinese domestic demand has increased greatly over the past 2-3 years, and they are certainly moving away from an export dominated economy. One of the biggest comming shifts in the global economy over the next 10 years is how do we supply enough resources and products to China. It is no co-incidence that as the same time Chinese consumer demand is increasing as a share of its economy and US exports have grown at an annual rate of 16% per year for the last 2 years. In time the world will supply China products, we are just at the very start of that cycle.
It is unnecessary to remind me of what I'm already aware of.
I simply point to the fact that there has never in history been a boom that has not ended. Perhaps the veiw that this is not a boom but a whole new paradigm that will last for many decades will ultimately be proven correct, though I harbour doubts.
It is unnecessary to remind me of what I'm already aware of.
I simply point to the fact that there has never in history been a boom that has not ended. Perhaps the veiw that this is not a boom but a whole new paradigm that will last for many decades will ultimately be proven correct, though I harbour doubts.
Re "I simply point to the fact that there has never in history been a boom that has not ended."
Maybe so, but there is one thing about this boom you can be sure of. The Australian Real Estate market will fly higher and stronger for it. Those waiting for the market to revert to mean need to wake up.
It is stated Chines Govt policy to increase this number to 500 million by 2020.
It took Chinese government 30 years to move 100m into the urban middle class and now they promise to move additional 300 millions in just 8 years.
do you really think any government policy is able to achieve this?
what made you change your mind?
just 2 years ago you said:
Quote:
This is China's version of the sub prime collapse the US had except this time it was state owned Chinese banks lending huge sums of money to finance construction to keep the economy going. Who will keep the Chinese home owner going that were sold homes at inflated prices with cheap money from the Chinese government.
It is my opinion that the US is moving to unravel the Chinese economy to force them to revalue there currency up 20-40% or to let if float freely like most other large economies. This would go along way to balancing world trade. Either way China is looking at a tough few years as the world now responds to its manipulation of the world markets. One that will not longer be tolerated as to many countries compete for to few consumers to export to.
The twin benefits of popping the Chinese economy and property bubble will help to delay if not halt the rise of China on the world stage for a period of time. Every nation has had to deal with economic setbacks along the development path and china will be no different. The nations which depend on China will need to develop strategies to keep there economies afloat or diverse there economies.
The only way to prevent an outcome like this is for collective world action on currencies and for china to agree to appreciate its currency at a steady rate of about 1 to 1.5% a month. So that over a period of 2-3 years there currency would be high enough. However like the efforts to deal with global warming nations will act in there own best interest and no world wide agreement will be signed. Even when the fate of our planet is at stake nations could not act, now do you really believe they will act to help other nations recover there economy at there own expense. I don't think so, but I hope so.
According to you China is just about to collapse
BTW. there are only 9 cities larger than Sydney in China not 93
Re "I simply point to the fact that there has never in history been a boom that has not ended."
Maybe so, but there is one thing about this boom you can be sure of. The Australian Real Estate market will fly higher and stronger for it. Those waiting for the market to revert to mean need to wake up.
The market is morphing into a different beast ...
I think you needed to have been more specific and have said that areas attatched to the resource boom will likely continue to experience growth as long as the boom continues.
How do you propose that a sector that employs 3% of the national labour force support the entire national housing market?
Hmm, no don't bother answering - it's unlikely you have anything sensible to say.
I think you needed to have been more specific and have said that areas attatched to the resource boom will likely continue to experience growth as long as the boom continues.
How do you propose that a sector that employs 3% of the national labour force support the entire national housing market?
Hmm, no don't bother answering - it's unlikely you have anything sensible to say.
areas attatched to the resource boom will likely crash much faster and deeper than other areas. There is no single resource boom area in this world that lived in prosperity for long period
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