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First Home Buyers Surge 15% Perth in March; First home buyer activity now at highest level since 2009 when the FHBG was doubled.
Topic Started: 18 Apr 2012, 06:39 PM (2,940 Views)
newjez
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Mike
20 Apr 2012, 09:02 AM
I have bought and sold property for 10 years. I currently hold 8 properties with a value of over $4 million, so I think I understand the market well.

As an investor I take advantage of any situation that comes about, if its price falls, a peak in the market, or even in a declining market. There is money to be made.

Oh yes some of my properties I have held for 10 years, some I have built and sold with in 6 months. Others I build and sell old stock, what ever works best at the time for the market.

So your preaching to the converted, so dont waste your time.
Preaching to the deluded maybe. Whatever floats your boat mate.

I assume that if you are so gun ho about the market - you will have purchased several properties recently. Care to mention where and we can keep tabs on how they are performing.

It will give us a good indication of who is right.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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davel
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Mike, its clear what your views on the market are now.

As a PI, whats your take on why the Perth market declined significantly from 2007-2011 despite a boom in many other parts of Aus, and the presence of a once-in-100-years resources boom?

And whats changed now to cause it to turn around?
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Perthite
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Terms of trade peaked. Ore prices peaked. Demand wilted.
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Mike
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davel
20 Apr 2012, 12:58 PM
Mike, its clear what your views on the market are now.

As a PI, whats your take on why the Perth market declined significantly from 2007-2011 despite a boom in many other parts of Aus, and the presence of a once-in-100-years resources boom?

And whats changed now to cause it to turn around?
All indicators point to steady and sustained growth over the next 2-3 year peroid. My best guess will be 7-9% growth per year. Perth is now undervalued in comparision to other capital cities.

The market declined as it over shot in the preceeding years with large capital growth. Perth lagged well behind most other capital cities in the years leading up to the boom in 05/06.

Is it it a once in a hundred year resource boom or is it a sustained structual shift with over 3 billion people to our north industrialising. At present only 500 million are now middle class.

Let me ask you this question. If Australian house prices have kept most of their gains over the recent 10 years. No other buble in the world has kept gains for 10 years then collapsed. A 10 year peroid indicates a sustained structual shift in the economy.

If despite the largest economic disaster since the 1930s could not bring Australian house prices down, nothing will. You need an economic disaster on the same scale as what hit the US to hit Australia, that is highly unlikely any time soon.

Instead why dont you doom and gloom types answer this. What if China continues to grow strongly as it appears to be doing. What if the US economy keeps growing and gets back to 4% growth which will further drive, China, India and so on. What if Europe is not as bad as some of you make out. What will happen here if the rest of the world returns to strong growth
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Mike
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Mike
20 Apr 2012, 02:52 PM
davel
20 Apr 2012, 12:58 PM
Mike, its clear what your views on the market are now.

As a PI, whats your take on why the Perth market declined significantly from 2007-2011 despite a boom in many other parts of Aus, and the presence of a once-in-100-years resources boom?

And whats changed now to cause it to turn around?
All indicators point to steady and sustained growth over the next 2-3 year peroid. My best guess will be 7-9% growth per year. Perth is now undervalued in comparision to other capital cities.

The market declined as it over shot in the preceeding years with large capital growth. Perth lagged well behind most other capital cities in the years leading up to the boom in 05/06.

Is it it a once in a hundred year resource boom or is it a sustained structual shift with over 3 billion people to our north industrialising. At present only 500 million are now middle class.

Let me ask you this question. If Australian house prices have kept most of their gains over the recent 10 years. No other buble in the world has kept gains for 10 years then collapsed. A 10 year peroid indicates a sustained structual shift in the economy.

If despite the largest economic disaster since the 1930s could not bring Australian house prices down, nothing will. You need an economic disaster on the same scale as what hit the US to hit Australia, that is highly unlikely any time soon.

Instead why dont you doom and gloom types answer this. What if China continues to grow strongly as it appears to be doing. What if the US economy keeps growing and gets back to 4% growth which will further drive, China, India and so on. What if Europe is not as bad as some of you make out. What will happen here if the rest of the world returns to strong growth
I have posted the links, presented the data.

It is you who need to give us investors answers as you why you disagree with the data, as your opinions do not match actual facts. Your are welcome to your opinions but they have not basis in the current reality of the market.

Can you post some facts, links or data from offical sources to counter the information I have provided. Bring more to the table then opinions and mother statements.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Ben D
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Mike
20 Apr 2012, 02:52 PM
Let me ask you this question. If Australian house prices have kept most of their gains over the recent 10 years. No other buble in the world has kept gains for 10 years then collapsed. A 10 year peroid indicates a sustained structual shift in the economy.
Even you are right and there has been a "structural shift", surely you don't think the next 10 years will look like the last 10 years??
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davel
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Mike
20 Apr 2012, 02:52 PM
davel
20 Apr 2012, 12:58 PM
Mike, its clear what your views on the market are now.

As a PI, whats your take on why the Perth market declined significantly from 2007-2011 despite a boom in many other parts of Aus, and the presence of a once-in-100-years resources boom?

And whats changed now to cause it to turn around?
All indicators point to steady and sustained growth over the next 2-3 year peroid. My best guess will be 7-9% growth per year. Perth is now undervalued in comparision to other capital cities.

The market declined as it over shot in the preceeding years with large capital growth. Perth lagged well behind most other capital cities in the years leading up to the boom in 05/06.

Is it it a once in a hundred year resource boom or is it a sustained structual shift with over 3 billion people to our north industrialising. At present only 500 million are now middle class.

Let me ask you this question. If Australian house prices have kept most of their gains over the recent 10 years. No other buble in the world has kept gains for 10 years then collapsed. A 10 year peroid indicates a sustained structual shift in the economy.

If despite the largest economic disaster since the 1930s could not bring Australian house prices down, nothing will. You need an economic disaster on the same scale as what hit the US to hit Australia, that is highly unlikely any time soon.

Instead why dont you doom and gloom types answer this. What if China continues to grow strongly as it appears to be doing. What if the US economy keeps growing and gets back to 4% growth which will further drive, China, India and so on. What if Europe is not as bad as some of you make out. What will happen here if the rest of the world returns to strong growth
Well, there are a few points to question here.

1) Perth is not undervalued, quite the opposite. There is F all there other than mining-related, and thats a one-way street down. Theres a very real chance that people will look back in 5 years and wonder how on earth prices reached their current levels.

2) Its a structural shift only inasmuch as yes, India and China will continue to gain strength. But this is a very long-term exercise, come back in 100 years. Most definitely they are now hitting the limits of what they can achieve in the present cycle and are poised for probably 10+ years of turmoil as they adjust and reshape. This is esp the case for China. This mining boom is definitely 1 in 100 years, and is ending as we speak with new sources of supply coming online and the growth in demand starting to subside.

3) I am a US bull, but I do not see steady 4% growth again, except perhaps maybe the odd year. US has not had 4% GDP growth since pre-dotcom, 2000.

4) Europe is toast.
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earthsta
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Mike
20 Apr 2012, 02:52 PM
All indicators point to steady and sustained growth over the next 2-3 year peroid. My best guess will be 7-9% growth per year. Perth is now undervalued in comparision to other capital cities.

The market declined as it over shot in the preceeding years with large capital growth. Perth lagged well behind most other capital cities in the years leading up to the boom in 05/06.

Is it it a once in a hundred year resource boom or is it a sustained structual shift with over 3 billion people to our north industrialising. At present only 500 million are now middle class.

Let me ask you this question. If Australian house prices have kept most of their gains over the recent 10 years. No other buble in the world has kept gains for 10 years then collapsed. A 10 year peroid indicates a sustained structual shift in the economy.

If despite the largest economic disaster since the 1930s could not bring Australian house prices down, nothing will. You need an economic disaster on the same scale as what hit the US to hit Australia, that is highly unlikely any time soon.

Instead why dont you doom and gloom types answer this. What if China continues to grow strongly as it appears to be doing. What if the US economy keeps growing and gets back to 4% growth which will further drive, China, India and so on. What if Europe is not as bad as some of you make out. What will happen here if the rest of the world returns to strong growth
LOL

Perth's answer to Shadow "Prices in Perth will rise 7-9% pa"

How long before the median price "approaches" $1m

:lol :lol :lol
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earthsta
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newjez
20 Apr 2012, 11:34 AM
Preaching to the deluded maybe. Whatever floats your boat mate.

I assume that if you are so gun ho about the market - you will have purchased several properties recently. Care to mention where and we can keep tabs on how they are performing.

It will give us a good indication of who is right.
His houses are all in the same suburbs as blackies as well :lol :lol :lol
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newjez
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earthsta
20 Apr 2012, 03:40 PM
His houses are all in the same suburbs as blackies as well :lol :lol :lol
It was a simple question Mike - where and when did you buy your last three investment properties?

As for Perthbeing undervalued - I think you should check out what you can buy in Mel or Ad dollar for dollar. Traditionally, Perth has always been cheaper than the east coast, and there are valid reasons for this. An employment boom may reverse this, but the effects will be temporary.

I see you have convinced yourself that there has been a 'shift' from the norm. This is a classic bubble symptom. Good luck with that. (Although you'll sell at the first hint of a drop, because you're (just for you hoof) ahead of the market. Hell, you've probably sold all eight properties, because if you haven't noticed, the market has been falling for a while now.)
Edited by newjez, 20 Apr 2012, 04:19 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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