FYI Mike. RIEWA \ Landgate numbers are not seasonally adjusted. They would need to rise 25% to reach the level of the depressed mid correction March quarter numbers from 2011. Want a link? I notice you rarely post with one.
I sugest you look at landgate data correctly. Sales for January 2012 already exceed January 2011 and counting has not stoped yet for January 2012. Same for February, with incomplete data sales levels are only 31 short of 2011. We are still waiting for offical data to be completed on march by landgate. But information from treasury states that First Home Buyer grants issued increased by 15% in march 2012 over the same peroid in 2011. http://www.landgate.wa.gov.au/corporate.nsf/chartfiles/$file/mehpm.pdf
Clearly all these links show large increases in sales. So where is this need for a 25% increase, from what I see from all the information provided sales have already exceeded 1st quater 2011 figures on present information.
Sorry Mike I forgot you cannot process data that complex.
It appears you are unable to process complex thoughts, you take a simple graph and think it means some thing. Ok lets play ball.
Tell oh smart one (since your not retarded unlike me) why does your graph show a large plunge in financing in January 2010 yet landgate shows median house prices rising in January 2010. http://www.landgate.wa.gov.au/corporate.nsf/chartfiles/$file/mehpm.pdf In fact right through 2010 lending levels remain well below that of 2009, yet median house prices increased in value from $470,000 in July 2009 when your graph show lending levels at near peaks to March 2010 when lending levels reach almost record lows, yet the Median value is $520,000 in March 2010. So despite your graph showing lending levels declining massively, we have reach new peaks in Median house prices. I wonder why that happened. When you figure this out do come back and tell us, and I wll grade you with my retarded brain on how well you did.
Perhaps looking at many different sources, and some real life experience every day in the sector you claim to know so much about might give you true knowledge on this subject.
Well Panties, who ever that is would be correct. Landgate clearly shows Perth Median houses price bottomed out in September 2011 and Median prices have been increasing ever since. It will be interesting once full data is released for March quater. If you look at Febuary although still incomplete the number of sales counted is large and the Median price is $495,000 which is a $30,000 increase in median values from September. If this figure remains it means Perth Median house prices will have increased in value by 6.45% in 6 months or an annualised rate of 12.9%, very solid growth figures if it continues. With the large rental crisis here in perth, this kind of growth is possible although unlikely. I would expect to see yearly growthin in the 7-9% for 2012.
The key figures to watch are First Home Buyer activity, at present sales levels are similar to the last time the Government doubled the grant in 2009 which lead to a mini boom in house prices. The question is, if the current Rental Crisis having a similar affect on the market.
I find it interesting that there is so little press covering your relevation. Maybe they are just checking the figures. It all looks very interesting.
You will find mainstream media will not report figures until they are 100% certain. That normaly takes 3 months after the fact. This is why most people miss a boom or fall in prices. Buy the time it is reported in the media it is normaly to late. The problem is people like me will have moved in and bought or sold as we see noticed the early indicators well before others. Ofcourse nothing is full proof, all investments are risks.
Classic recent example is the present rental crisis in perth. This was talked about and predicted by me and others long before the figures started to roll in or the media caught on. The problem was you had people such as Not Fooled by property spruikers hype scaring people, so alot of people missed the bottom of the market in September, and now they will pay a cost for that mistake. In fact many already are due to rents rising 10% in offical figures in 12 months, in many cases it has increased much more. Instead of buying a place to live in back around September last year, they are still renting. So now they pay on average 10% more for a rental plus median house values have increased by nearly 6.5%. In march Perth house prices increased by 1.4% alone http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/house-price-doubt-mirrors-market-concern/story-e6frg2ru-1226316696444 There has been much debate about RP data figures, but instead of debating RP data what people should debate is RP data reports now closely mirror landgate data on rising median prices. Landgate is the most accurate of all sources as it counts every sale and transaction for property, not just a snapshot.
Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally adjusted housing finance commitments in Western Australia increased by 0.8% to 6,643 between January and February. Commitments rose by 24.0% over the year and grew by 6.2% over the three months to February 2012
I guess you missed that little bit of information. For an indication on where the perth housing market is heading look at the graph. The last time housing finance commitments increased by these margins was during the previous boom in house prices.
You have been measured, weighed and found wanting.
Well Panties, who ever that is would be correct. Landgate clearly shows Perth Median houses price bottomed out in September 2011 and Median prices have been increasing ever since. It will be interesting once full data is released for March quater. If you look at Febuary although still incomplete the number of sales counted is large and the Median price is $495,000 which is a $30,000 increase in median values from September. If this figure remains it means Perth Median house prices will have increased in value by 6.45% in 6 months or an annualised rate of 12.9%, very solid growth figures if it continues. With the large rental crisis here in perth, this kind of growth is possible although unlikely. I would expect to see yearly growthin in the 7-9% for 2012.
The key figures to watch are First Home Buyer activity, at present sales levels are similar to the last time the Government doubled the grant in 2009 which lead to a mini boom in house prices. The question is, if the current Rental Crisis having a similar affect on the market.
I find it interesting that there is so little press covering your relevation. Maybe they are just checking the figures. It all looks very interesting.
You will find mainstream media will not report figures until they are 100% certain. That normaly takes 3 months after the fact. This is why most people miss a boom or fall in prices. Buy the time it is reported in the media it is normaly to late. The problem is people like me will have moved in and bought or sold as we see noticed the early indicators well before others. Ofcourse nothing is full proof, all investments are risks.
Classic recent example is the present rental crisis in perth. This was talked about and predicted by me and others long before the figures started to roll in or the media caught on. The problem was you had people such as Not Fooled by property spruikers hype scaring people, so alot of people missed the bottom of the market in September, and now they will pay a cost for that mistake. In fact many already are due to rents rising 10% in offical figures in 12 months, in many cases it has increased much more. Instead of buying a place to live in back around September last year, they are still renting. So now they pay on average 10% more for a rental plus median house values have increased by nearly 6.5%. In march Perth house prices increased by 1.4% alone http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/house-price-doubt-mirrors-market-concern/story-e6frg2ru-1226316696444 There has been much debate about RP data figures, but instead of debating RP data what people should debate is RP data reports now closely mirror landgate data on rising median prices. Landgate is the most accurate of all sources as it counts every sale and transaction for property, not just a snapshot.
Seriously Mike? Are you telling me you buy or sell houses whenever there is a blip or a dip?
Most people on this board are property investors, or ex property investors, wanna be property investors or finance people.
We all know property investment doesn't work like that. Property is very illiquid. You can't just buy and sell on a whim - hence most of the arguements on this board. You need to take a position with a view for several years.
All this 'buy now or you will miss out' talk really is very childish.
I agree that there may be a blip due to the drop in interest rates. But to be honest, I'm surprised at the falls we have had so far. We haven't really started yet.
If I had to make a prediction, I would expect a sharp drop over 2012/2013, followed by good steady growth over the next few years as the dollar falls. There will be blips and dips along the way, but I have seen little to disuade me from my view of the market.
Good luck with your day trading, but you could try shares or other more tradable assets - the over heads are far lower.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Seriously Mike? Are you telling me you buy or sell houses whenever there is a blip or a dip?
Most people on this board are property investors, or ex property investors, wanna be property investors or finance people.
We all know property investment doesn't work like that. Property is very illiquid. You can't just buy and sell on a whim - hence most of the arguements on this board. You need to take a position with a view for several years.
All this 'buy now or you will miss out' talk really is very childish.
I agree that there may be a blip due to the drop in interest rates. But to be honest, I'm surprised at the falls we have had so far. We haven't really started yet.
If I had to make a prediction, I would expect a sharp drop over 2012/2013, followed by good steady growth over the next few years as the dollar falls. There will be blips and dips along the way, but I have seen little to disuade me from my view of the market.
Good luck with your day trading, but you could try shares or other more tradable assets - the over heads are far lower.
I have bought and sold property for 10 years. I currently hold 8 properties with a value of over $4 million, so I think I understand the market well.
As an investor I take advantage of any situation that comes about, if its price falls, a peak in the market, or even in a declining market. There is money to be made.
Oh yes some of my properties I have held for 10 years, some I have built and sold with in 6 months. Others I build and sell old stock, what ever works best at the time for the market.
So your preaching to the converted, so dont waste your time.
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