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RBA relying on moronic data, says Louis Christopher of SQM Research; House prices not stabilising. Auction results weaker than same time last year.
Topic Started: 18 Apr 2012, 03:15 PM (2,326 Views)
TED BULLPIT
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The guy writing the article needs to come in on a different angle , there are simple questions that need to be asked but all you thickheads never ask them . This guy could blow these RBA clowns of the planet , you could blow the bulls of the planet at the same time.Sorry to keep you guys up but its time to ask some very simple questions......... ;)

How many properties are currently on the market in Australia, both units and houses?

How many properties would be for auction or sale as opposed to those not up for sale in Australia, or perhaps how many properties are for sale in your area as opposed to the number of properties that are built in your area?

How many people in Australia ?

How many people in Australia under 18 that cant own property ?

How many elderly living in nursing homes and dont need to own property?

Theres a start for you lot ,should answer a few questions when you put them all together. :bye:

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peter fraser
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Aussiehouseprices
18 Apr 2012, 11:01 PM
peter fraser
18 Apr 2012, 08:37 PM
Black Dragon - the median price is the median that buyers are prepared to pay, but that includes houses that have been discounted, so the real strata levels have altered without a corresponding change in the index method of calculation.

Buyers work out what they can afford, and then buy the best house that they can find for their money. Once they have set an affordable limit people rarely spend less. If you could buy a BMW for the price of a Proton, wouldn't you buy the BMW instead of saving money on a cheaper Proton.

Median values can reflect borrowing capacity instead of house values in these market conditions.

Everyone that I deal with who is buying an existing property, is sure that they are buying at a discount to what they saw 12 months ago, and yet they are spending up to the same limit that they first considered. They are getting more for their money, but not reducing their spend.

Of course prices have fallen, and of course medians haven't.
Very interesting point PF. But something doesn't sound quite right - and I can't work out exactly what it is.

I agree that if house prices fall, people can then afford nicer/bigger houses. But what happens to all those smaller/crappier houses that still make up the total housing stock? For example, the person you are talking about - who can now afford to buy that bigger/nicer house - must be selling their smaller/crappier house - and someone else must be buying it. So wouldn't that be reflected in the median?
It hasn't had a big effect on the bottom homes, it affects the above average priced homes.

Not all areas are being affected unformly. I suspect that as some areas are entering a downturn others will be recovering in accord with their local conditions. there has been a disconnect between cities for a decade now at least.

Remember how medians and calculated, and then you will understand. There is only one way to tell for sure in your neighbourhood, and that is to put on your sneakers and wear out the soles looking.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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TED BULLPIT
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TED BULLPIT
18 Apr 2012, 11:57 PM
The guy writing the article needs to come in on a different angle , there are simple questions that need to be asked but all you thickheads never ask them . This guy could blow these RBA clowns of the planet , you could blow the bulls of the planet at the same time.Sorry to keep you guys up but its time to ask some very simple questions......... ;)

How many properties are currently on the market in Australia, both units and houses?

How many properties would be for auction or sale as opposed to those not up for sale in Australia, or perhaps how many properties are for sale in your area as opposed to the number of properties that are built in your area?

How many people in Australia ?

How many people in Australia under 18 that cant own property ?

How many elderly living in nursing homes and dont need to own property?

Theres a start for you lot ,should answer a few questions when you put them all together. :bye:

Well how many properties do you think are for sale percentage wise ? I have no idea and thats why I am asking for opinions here . 1 in 100 ,2 in 100 , 3 in 100 , 5 in 100 , 10 in 100 ?
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muzza
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peter fraser
18 Apr 2012, 08:37 PM
Black Dragon - the median price is the median that buyers are prepared to pay, but that includes houses that have been discounted, so the real strata levels have altered without a corresponding change in the index method of calculation.

Buyers work out what they can afford, and then buy the best house that they can find for their money. Once they have set an affordable limit people rarely spend less. If you could buy a BMW for the price of a Proton, wouldn't you buy the BMW instead of saving money on a cheaper Proton.

Median values can reflect borrowing capacity instead of house values in these market conditions.

Everyone that I deal with who is buying an existing property, is sure that they are buying at a discount to what they saw 12 months ago, and yet they are spending up to the same limit that they first considered. They are getting more for their money, but not reducing their spend.

Of course prices have fallen, and of course medians haven't.


+1. Great post Peter, cheers.
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Sydneyite
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TED BULLPIT
19 Apr 2012, 12:00 PM
Well how many properties do you think are for sale percentage wise ? I have no idea and thats why I am asking for opinions here . 1 in 100 ,2 in 100 , 3 in 100 , 5 in 100 , 10 in 100 ?
There are about 8.5M dwellings in Australia, so with about 300k properties advertised 'for sale" nationally, that's about 3.5%. Approx 500k - 600k properties change hands each year on average, which is about 6-7% of total housing stock.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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TED BULLPIT
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Sydneyite
19 Apr 2012, 04:01 PM
There are about 8.5M dwellings in Australia, so with about 300k properties advertised 'for sale" nationally, that's about 3.5%. Approx 500k - 600k properties change hands each year on average, which is about 6-7% of total housing stock.
Thanks for that, I thought there was over 400k properties for sale. So would be close to 5% if we have 8.5 million properties. My area seems to have only about 1% for sale. So thats means there would be a lot more than 8.5 million properties if this was closer to the average.
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