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The credit bubble in Australia has never really popped; The obvious catalyst for the popping of the great Aussie bubble is China
Topic Started: 16 Apr 2012, 05:23 PM (4,448 Views)
b_b
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raveswei
19 Apr 2012, 04:13 PM
b_b
18 Apr 2012, 09:23 PM
Conversely, the rising AUD has corresponded with falling house prices in recent times.

Housing Bears who are willing a lower AUD are going to get the shock of their lives.
are you sure?

AUD rally that started in March 2009 and ended in late 2010 clearly corresponds with house price rally that started in mid 2009 and ended in early 2011. House prices are falling since AUD started moving sideways and down, in 2011.

Actually there is very strong correlation between house prices and AUD/USD over the last decade.

Posted Image

In future, please spare us such obvious lies.
Do you know the difference between correlation and causation? Why would the average house buyer act simultaneously with currency movements. Surely a sensible people would realise there would be a lag....oh, I just saw you posted this point.

Never mind, back to your hole Rave...
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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b_b
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Catweasel
19 Apr 2012, 01:54 PM
b_b
19 Apr 2012, 01:11 PM
A Japanese Bank is a corporate citizen of Japan.

My point remains. Australian Banks do not fund the current account deficit.
Catweasel laugh. A corporate citizen of a Japan operate under entirely different the risk as Japanese mouse.

Also, among a Australia the bank, it much the more capable legally to source funding from offshore compare to a Aussie mouse. It also benefit from system to work it its advantage.
My point remains. Austraian Banks do not fund the current account deficit.
Edited by b_b, 19 Apr 2012, 05:14 PM.
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raveswei
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stinkbug
19 Apr 2012, 04:55 PM
raveswei
19 Apr 2012, 04:13 PM

Actually there is very strong correlation between house prices and AUD/USD over the last decade.

Posted Image
This is really interesting point, Rave.

You mention that there's a correlation, but I'm curious as to the causation. Do you think there's a causal relationship here? Which way?

Cheers.
I wouldn’t say there is direct causation between two. Both things are reflections or sometimes causes of a general economic situation in a country.

My point is that whenever we see AUD going down, house prices are very likely to go the same direction and vice versa.


This makes our current situation very bad - whatever direction we go economy is likely to get worse.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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b_b
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raveswei
19 Apr 2012, 05:24 PM
stinkbug
19 Apr 2012, 04:55 PM
raveswei
19 Apr 2012, 04:13 PM

Actually there is very strong correlation between house prices and AUD/USD over the last decade.

Posted Image
This is really interesting point, Rave.

You mention that there's a correlation, but I'm curious as to the causation. Do you think there's a causal relationship here? Which way?

Cheers.
I wouldn’t say there is direct causation between two. Both things are reflections or sometimes causes of a general economic situation in a country.

My point is that whenever we see AUD going down, house prices are very likely to go the same direction and vice versa.


This makes our current situation very bad - whatever direction we go economy is likely to get worse.
Outstanding analysis. No matter what happens, we are stuffed.

Pure Gold!
Edited by b_b, 19 Apr 2012, 05:28 PM.
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Catweasel
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b_b
19 Apr 2012, 05:27 PM
Outstanding analysis. No matter what happens, we are stuffed.

Pure Gold!
Catweasel laugh. But a critical mass (include its talking head experts) expect a AUD to the become leading currency. If it add its 2-dimensions theories, then everything the fine.
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peter fraser
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Catweasel
19 Apr 2012, 01:54 PM
b_b
19 Apr 2012, 01:11 PM
A Japanese Bank is a corporate citizen of Japan.

My point remains. Austraian Banks do not fund the current account deficit.
Catweasel laugh. A corporate citizen of a Japan operate under entirely different the risk as Japanese mouse.

Also, among a Australia the bank, it much the more capable legally to source funding from offshore compare to a Aussie mouse. It also benefit from system to work it its advantage.
legally a corporation has the same rights as an ordinary citizen, at least that was the original intention.

It could be argued that a corporation has evolved into an entity who accepts less community responsibilities, but legally they are the same.

The is a documentary from some years ago that is worth a watch.

http://www.thecorporation.com/index.cfm?page_id=46

1st Chapter only.



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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nipa hut
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peter fraser
19 Apr 2012, 08:55 PM
legally a corporation has the same rights as an ordinary citizen, at least that was the original intention.



Oh, I think that's going a bit far.

The original intent of a corporate entity was to allow investors in the corporation to limit their liability to the amount invested--in contrast to say, a partnership, where individual partners would have unlimited joint-and-several liability for the debts of the partnership entity. Once it became established that a corporate entity could borrow in its own right, without increasing the liability of individual shareholders, it became convenient to refer to a corporation as having the (financial) rights and responsibilities of a "person".

But a "person" is not a "citizen".

No nation has seriously proposed giving corporations the right to vote, for example, and even nations with very strong traditions of free speech for citizens (e.g. the US), do not wholly extend those rights to corporations.
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peter fraser
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nipa hut
19 Apr 2012, 09:15 PM
peter fraser
19 Apr 2012, 08:55 PM
legally a corporation has the same rights as an ordinary citizen, at least that was the original intention.



Oh, I think that's going a bit far.

The original intent of a corporate entity was to allow investors in the corporation to limit their liability to the amount invested--in contrast to say, a partnership, where individual partners would have unlimited joint-and-several liability for the debts of the partnership entity. Once it became established that a corporate entity could borrow in its own right, without increasing the liability of individual shareholders, it became convenient to refer to a corporation as having the (financial) rights and responsibilities of a "person".

But a "person" is not a "citizen".

No nation has seriously proposed giving corporations the right to vote, for example, and even nations with very strong traditions of free speech for citizens (e.g. the US), do not wholly extend those rights to corporations.
"No nation has seriously proposed giving corporations the right to vote, for example, and even nations with very strong traditions of free speech for citizens (e.g. the US), do not wholly extend those rights to corporations"

Well thats true, but the obligations are meant to be the same.

I'm not a solicitor, perhaps you are?

As I recall corporations were first introduced to allow a group of people to build a bridge and they needed an entity who could act like a person but with liability limited to the corporation, and not extending to the shareholders or directors. It was never meant to evolve the way it has.

I invite you to watch the documentary and then tell me how wrong I was.



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Catweasel
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peter fraser
19 Apr 2012, 09:30 PM
"No nation has seriously proposed giving corporations the right to vote, for example, and even nations with very strong traditions of free speech for citizens (e.g. the US), do not wholly extend those rights to corporations"

Well thats true, but the obligations are meant to be the same.

I'm not a solicitor, perhaps you are?

As I recall corporations were first introduced to allow a group of people to build a bridge and they needed an entity who could act like a person but with liability limited to the corporation, and not extending to the shareholders or directors. It was never meant to evolve the way it has.

I invite you to watch the documentary and then tell me how wrong I was.


Catweasel say goodness the grief. If mouse have all rights of corporation under a law, then a no reason mouser be concerned about a solvency. It now entering mental space of the nutbar.
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peter fraser
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Catweasel
19 Apr 2012, 09:46 PM
peter fraser
19 Apr 2012, 09:30 PM
"No nation has seriously proposed giving corporations the right to vote, for example, and even nations with very strong traditions of free speech for citizens (e.g. the US), do not wholly extend those rights to corporations"

Well thats true, but the obligations are meant to be the same.

I'm not a solicitor, perhaps you are?

As I recall corporations were first introduced to allow a group of people to build a bridge and they needed an entity who could act like a person but with liability limited to the corporation, and not extending to the shareholders or directors. It was never meant to evolve the way it has.

I invite you to watch the documentary and then tell me how wrong I was.


Catweasel say goodness the grief. If mouse have all rights of corporation under a law, then a no reason mouser be concerned about a solvency. It now entering mental space of the nutbar.
Go on Cat - put on your best Goth gear, lace up your Sid Vicious boots and settle back to watch the movie. It's all on youtube if you look.

Actually it's right up your alley, but perhaps you won't be able to overcome your natural bias against the source of recommendation.

Watch it anyway - no one will know, you don't have to admit it, and you will learn something. It's getting late in Kyoto, what else do you have to do?

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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