Alternatively the Germans could insist on a hundred year payment plan, land on a 100 year lease (an island etc), interest free repayments etc. But there is absolutely zero chance they will walk away - can see the Germans getting physical over this issue - they are not likely to take this lying down - especially from the Portuguese and Spanish.
Wars are generally fought over territory or real resources.
There was a spoof in the Daily mail about war in Europe as a result of GFC2. But it was just a spoof.
We could see juntas taking over in Greece, Italy and Spain - or even see them becoming communist states - but you won't see anyone goose stepping down that way.
If you believe this you probably believe Britain will rise to rebuild a new empire.
BTW, I thought Spain has a higher unemployment rate than Greece ?
About 24% - when did Franco die? Wasn't that long ago was it?
Investors showed a healthy appetite for Spanish debt Thursday but demanded a higher borrowing rate in an auction that was a key test of confidence in the government's ability to get a handle on its debts.
The Treasury auctioned 2.54 billion euros ($A3.23 billion) in two and 10-year bonds at the top end of targeted demand. It had set a range of 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion euros for the sale.
The interest rate, or yield, on the 10-year bond was 5.7 per cent, up from 5.3 at the last auction on April 4. Demand was more than double the amount sold, down from about triple at the last auction.
However, on the secondary market later in the day, yields on the 10-year bonds shot up after starting the day with relative stability. In late afternoon trading, the 10-year Spanish yield was at 5.88 per cent, up nearly six basis points for the day, according to financial data provider FactSet.
This was attributed in part to investors rushing to safer bets such as German bonds, which have seen their prices rising. Bond prices and yields move in opposition directions.
Other than breakup, the only workable solution is a massive monetary easing, and fiscal stimulus in the weaker countries, including debt write-offs. Is it conceivable that German public opinion could wear this, what would it take? Probably not, I can't think of any scenario that would bring that about. The Franco/Benelux architects of the project could probably wear this one, but Germans who now control its destiny, no chance. Even a full-on European state would only satisfy the Germans IF all debts had been accounted for equitably i.e. they weren't paying for it. No chance of that.
So the austerity debt deflation spiral will continue. Until countries unilaterally exit. I think thats what the Germans want, then they cant be blamed. Its a losing scenario for them anyway, but theres no winning scenarios in this.
There is absolutely no chance that these countries can bring about the adjustments needed. Politicians who offer alternative scenarios will be voted in e.g. Greece, France, and the long process of unwinding this experiment will begin. Spain may be the catalyst for that as its economy crashes into the dust - 25% UE, no growth, banks with massive hidden losses on their books, a huge property crash thats only just getting going, bankrupt regional govts. Its like US pre-2007 but far worse/
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