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Is APF a bear forum or a bull forum? Which team is winning?
Topic Started: 14 Apr 2012, 05:48 PM (9,479 Views)
peter fraser
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frankrider
15 Dec 2012, 12:04 AM
I'm a bear, and just so as people know my motives it's because I have a large position in GOLD. If we see good times and economies rebound etc my assets will fall. I want a true depression and monitary collapse thank you very much.
A big position in gold - that's gone nowhere over the last 18 months. When did you buy in?

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au1825nyb.html
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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chewbacca
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miw
11 Dec 2012, 12:44 PM
My biggest concern is that if we have to much in the way of low interest rates exported to us, it could ignite something that gets out of control, and after that a crash could be on the cards.
If they repeat their mistakes it might just happen
frankrider
15 Dec 2012, 12:04 AM
I'm a bear, and just so as people know my motives it's because I have a large position in GOLD. If we see good times and economies rebound etc my assets will fall. I want a true depression and monitary collapse thank you very much.
Gold was good once, now it is a speculative buy. At least you are honest with your motives!
Edited by chewbacca, 15 Dec 2012, 08:41 AM.
i followed miw to said casino but lost all my fckn money before i made it to the bar
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

chewbacca
15 Dec 2012, 08:34 AM
Gold was good once, now it is a speculative buy.
I think a bigger speculative buy is silver. Gold looks high if charted over 10 years, but it also reflects the debasement of world currencies.
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peter fraser
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NotFooled
15 Dec 2012, 08:53 AM
I think a bigger speculative buy is silver. Gold looks high if charted over 10 years, but it also reflects the debasement of world currencies.
I expect that the rebound in the Euro will kill the price of gold over the next 12 months.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Poontang
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peter fraser
15 Dec 2012, 09:17 AM
I expect that the rebound in the Euro will kill the price of gold over the next 12 months.
It may well dip in the next 12 months, the next 3 to 5 years though will more likely see the bull run continue.

Any rise in the Euro will be on the back of USD weakness.

Northern Hemisphere is still for all intent, shot.

The "not as bad as it could be" news is on the back of still more stimulus. Sustainable fundamental growth is on the whole, lacking still in most Euro nations. France and Germany (more so France) are showing the strain the "crisis" is continuing to have on their economies.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Sunder
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Poontang
15 Dec 2012, 09:26 AM
It may well dip in the next 12 months, the next 3 to 5 years though will more likely see the bull run continue.

Any rise in the Euro will be on the back of USD weakness.

Northern Hemisphere is still for all intent, shot.

The "not as bad as it could be" news is on the back of still more stimulus. Sustainable fundamental growth is on the whole, lacking still in most Euro nations. France and Germany (more so France) are showing the strain the "crisis" is continuing to have on their economies.
I find this view of yours that low interest rates and stimulus is "unsustainable" very amusing. I put the words in quotes of course, because it is technically unsustainable, but is like saying pushing a car unsustainable. If the battery is flat, I can drive from Sydney to Brisbane after 30 seconds of push starting. If the car is out of fuel, of course pushing is unsustainable.

Is there a fundamental reason why stimulus won't work? In Greece, I'd agree with you. In most of Europe, definitely not. U.S. is a tougher case, but stimulus is working there. In Australia, you're mad if you think we need stimulus forever and that its unsustainable. Once Europe and the U.S. get their issues sorted, which admittedly will take a while, the stimulus can be pulled back. And we have plenty of guys willing to push tell then. Glenn Stevens is pushing pretty hard now, and Wayne Swan said he'd help if unemployment gets over 5.5%

Property speculation is a type of gambling... But everyone knows that in gambling, the house always wins in the end.
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Sydneyite
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peter fraser
15 Dec 2012, 07:16 AM
A big position in gold - that's gone nowhere over the last 18 months. When did you buy in?

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au1825nyb.html
In $AU it's even worse - just broke support and made a new low looking at the 60 day chart, and the 2 year chart tells the whole story..... I think gold is "over" for a while - it may be saved and do well in $AU if we see a sudden collapse / fall in the $AU of course, but it's a very speculative play right now, with no certain fundamentals underpinning future increases in POG at all IMO.

Posted Image

Posted Image

PS; I wonder if Frankrider holds actual gold, or the ASX listed GOLD ETF? He capitalises "GOLD" which to me implies he holds the ETF. So that means that any bought in the last 18 months has lost capital value both due to the falling $AU gold price but also due to the ETF administration fee that is charged - and remember, no dividends to boot. :re:
Edited by Sydneyite, 15 Dec 2012, 09:59 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Poontang
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Sunder
15 Dec 2012, 09:40 AM
I find this view of yours that low interest rates and stimulus is "unsustainable" very amusing.
It is your right to have an opinion. I shall not enter dialogue about it though. I have my view, you have yours. You will not convince me I am wrong, nor I you.

There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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frankrider
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chewbacca
15 Dec 2012, 08:34 AM
Gold was good once, now it is a speculative buy. At least you are honest with your motives!
Yes if it isn't yet it soon will be, just like property in most of the world, and especially here. I bought my home when it was a fifth its current price and my gold when it was $450 up to $1100. Even it collapsed from here to $1000 odd I would still be well ahead. The silver is another matter, it is truly speculative, but if you look back across gold's history, once it makes an orderly correction it never gives back those gains. I was lucky to have seen the bull in its infantcy and take a solid position arount $500 au. It wont drop to that ever again, just like it didn't drop to $35/oz after the 1980 bubble where it went back to $200 and remained for 2 decades basically.

I have been researching gold for 8 years or more where most people here have considered it a barberous relic and don't know the first thing about it. What they know though is that it has risen four fold in price and that's better than the gains in any other class of asset for a decade. You would think credit where credit is due but people hate gold, and for good reason. Gold represents freedom among other things and most people today are so controlled and beaten down by government regulation, so conditioned to have other people do their thinking for them, that the idea of real freedom is repugnant to them. Their idea of freedom is a wallet full of licences and credit card debt and a wide screen tv to get their orders from the talkng heads.

If I wanted I could walk out of my house today, leaving it for squatters, and could go out and live a full and happy life on my savings alone. I might not have a new car every 4 years or eat out much but the point is I would be free. I could have done that when I was 30 too, but sell my home and have to work but I still would have been free. A lot here are so deep in debt that thought is ridiculous to them. They are not free, they cannot sell up, not in this market. They are trapped!

You can fit a hundred thousand dollars of gold in a cigarette packet. Portable, fungible wealth. It's why all the world's truely rich people posess it, even here in the stupid country. We may never be rich as some are but we can copy them by owning some gold as a hedge. If the global economy rolls right over like it is giving every signal of doing then 10% of your wealth in gold could cover a lot of losses.

Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan

A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

frankrider
15 Dec 2012, 12:27 PM


I have been researching gold for 8 years or more where most people here have considered it a barberous relic and don't know the first thing about it. What they know though is that it has risen four fold in price and that's better than the gains in any other class of asset for a decade. You would think credit where credit is due but people hate gold, and for good reason. Gold represents freedom among other things and most people today are so controlled and beaten down by government regulation, so conditioned to have other people do their thinking for them, that the idea of real freedom is repugnant to them. Their idea of freedom is a wallet full of licences and credit card debt and a wide screen tv to get their orders from the talkng heads.

You can fit a hundred thousand dollars of gold in a cigarette packet. Portable, fungible wealth. It's why all the world's truely rich people posess it, even here in the stupid country. We may never be rich as some are but we can copy them by owning some gold as a hedge. If the global economy rolls right over like it is giving every signal of doing then 10% of your wealth in gold could cover a lot of losses.
Some very good points there. My concern is that if there is any serious problem with the currency then the government will outlaw personal gold ownership for the masses. There's nothing governments and those who pull their strings hate more than a free and empowered citizenry.
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