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RBA May 2012 Interest Rate Decision?; Cuts likely in May and June?
Topic Started: 5 Apr 2012, 12:02 PM (8,127 Views)
zaph
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peter fraser
10 Apr 2012, 01:17 PM
Ted - the last two drops did indeed halt the decline and some gains have been made, but only slight.

More interest rate falls will help home prices stay higher, and may even increase them, but I think that in real terms they will gradually be eroded by inflation.

Consider this, if we see a 0.75% fall in interest over the next 12 months, that equates to an interest saving of about 12% for most borrowers, so it is definitely a stimulus for housing.

It will also help people pay down debts faster, and it may encourage more spending as more is left over after mortgage payments. On the negative side we all may be faced with higher utility costs (electricity and fuel in particular) so the net effect is difficult to determine.
There's no doubt that lower IRs have a positive price effect on housing. more people will jump in.

but i doubt lower rates will get existing households spending on other stuff. the articles I've read say that the vast majority just leave their payments at the old level and pay off the debt faster. perhaps the lower rates will invoke confidence to take on consumer debt; i doubt it.

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Unions expected to start a campaign against the Reserve Bank on interest rates

By Malcolm Farr, National Political Editor
news.com.au
April 11, 2012 10:49AM

The Reserve Bank is increasingly isolated today with a senior trade union figure joining protests over its refusal to cut interest rates.

"The RBA has made the wrong call consistently,'' said Australian Workers' Union national secretary Paul Howes.

Mr Howes said the RBA's decision to put rate cuts on hold was keeping the value of the Australian dollar excessively high, and brought the steel industry to the brink of collapse because it could not compete with overseas suppliers.

And he foreshadowed a campaign against the central bank if it does not lower rates next month.

"For some bizarre reason in this country, it seems like it's religious heresy to criticise the decisions of the RBA,'' Mr Howes told ABC radio.

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry said rates should be cut by at least 0,5 per cent at its May 1 board meeting.

The employer group joined criticism of the central bank, saying the cut was needed to bolster business confidence before carbon pricing began in July.

"The time has come for Australia's central bank to move decisively to cut rates by a full half a percent, and for the retail banks to immediately pass it on,'' said ACCI chief executive Peter Anderson.

"A quarter of a per cent cut would not be enough to do what is required. There needs to be significant and unambiguous signal, to support activity and to lift confidence across the next quarter.''

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has not been as blunt, but she yesterday added her own voice to criticism of the RBA's stay-put interest rate position.

"As I move round the country, businesses in particular talk to me about how much they'd like to see a rate cut, an interest rate cut,'' said the Prime Minister.

"Now of course interest rates are cut by the Reserve Bank independently of government, but what we know is that returning the Budget to surplus will help give the Reserve Bank the room it needs to move, should it choose to do so.''

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/interest-rates/unions-expected-to-start-a-campaign-against-the-reserve-bank-on-interest-rates/story-e6frfmn0-1226323625787#ixzz1rizMM76M
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ME Bank says it will keep its mortgage rates on hold ahead of Friday’s ANZ announcement: RBA rate decision aftermath

By Larry Schlesinger
Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Melbourne-based ME Bank has announced it will leave standard variable mortgage rates unchanged two days ahead of ANZ’s independent rates announcement on Friday.

The decision to keep its mortgage rates on hold follows the RBA leaving the official cash rate unchanged at 4.25% last week.

ME Bank says it is leaving standard variable interest rates unchanged for the third month in a row “despite continued funding pressures”.

However ME Bank CEO Jamie McPhee warned that if “funding costs remain elevated then absorbing these increasing costs cannot occur forever”.

ME Bank currently has a standard variable rate of 6.74%.

This is 62 basis points lower than ANZ, which has the lowest standard variable rate of the big four banks and 72 basis points lower than Westpac, which has the highest standard variable rate of the major banks.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/mortgages/me-bank-says-it-will-keep-its-mortgage-rates-on-hold-ahead-of-fridays-anz-announcement
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Koukoulas: Will RBA cut by 50 or more in May?

Fascinating sequence of Tweets today from ALP-aligned economist, Stephen Koukoulas. A 50 basis point cut in May would certainly give a huge boost to the housing market. Although one does ponder on the pickle the RBA will be in if the six month moving-average for inflation prints at above 2.5% when the CPI is released (especially accounting for the two rate cuts we have already had, which have yet to have their full effect on the real economy--and won't for another year or so--combined with the reversal of the high exchange rate that so many claimed was depressing activity in trade-exposed sectors). Unemployment tomorrow will offer important additional colour; the market is looking for the UE rate to increase. Any stability or a decline would be a surprise. And here is "Koukie":

"[W]e should be careful not to blame govt for RBA error. Govt surplus plans have been given for 2 yeears [sic]...Will RBA cut by 50 or more in May? Needs to make up for earlier inaction, plus add some insurance for current anf [sic] future negative risks"

Read more: http://christopherjoye.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/koukoulas-will-rba-cut-by-50-or-more-in.html
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Wait for the RBA D-Day

Christopher Joye
Published 11:05 AM, 13 Apr 2012

So let’s get a few things crystal-clear upfront – I don’t want there to be any confusion. First, contrary to what you will read in the newspaper, the Reserve Bank has no idea what it is going to do with rates in May right now.

Second, nor do the economists and commentators who like to fill the informational void with their subjective opinions on this subject.

Third, I would personally be over the moon if the first-quarter inflation data printed very low, and gave our central bank room to cut rates and stimulate growth. That is, to push the unemployment rate down even lower than its current 5.2 per cent level without risking the RBA’s inflation target.

With that prologue out of the way, let me say that the certainty with which some analysts and commentators purport to be able to predict the RBA’s decisions weeks and months in advance of determinative data never ceases to amaze me.

A few days ago almost everyone was baking in an RBA rate cut in May. The market had, as usual, over-egged it, with a 100 per cent probability priced. One analyst even announced this week that the RBA would cut not once in May, but twice, or by 50 basis points in total.

I’ve been more circumspect for the basic reason that I have listened to what the RBA has repeatedly told us: all else being equal, it is, quite reasonably, not touching rates until it gets the next batch of quarterly inflation data on April 24. This is why I was relatively confident that – barring any unexpected disasters – the RBA would leave rates unchanged in February, March, and April.

One is left to surmise that the pundits predicting a rate cut(s) in May and/or June must have a very high degree of faith in their quantitative forecasts for Australia’s underlying inflation rate during the first three months of 2012, and, just as importantly, the revisions the ABS makes to the 2011 results.

In this context, I reckon I know one of the country’s best inflation forecasters. And I also know what his standard errors look like. The bottom line is that once you account for a bit of chance, anything could happen on the 24th. (Now don’t forget my riders upfront!)

I would implore those proclaiming most loudly what the RBA will do in May, June and months thereafter to reflect on what the boss of the central bank, Glenn Stevens, recently described as his “first rule of forecasting”: don’t forecast!

My current RBA logic is pretty straightforward. First, the RBA has more or less declared that it has given up on 'pre-emptive' policy-setting, and certainly so in respect of rate hikes.

As I’ve said before, lifting rates is hard yakka when the community has got used to 20 plus years of uninterrupted economic growth and mostly low and steady inflation. The problem is that generations of Australians have forgotten that the average mortgage rate between 1980 and 1995 was 12.6 per cent. Imagine paying that much for a home loan today! You would have conniptions.

In January 1990 mortgage rates soared as high as 17 per cent. But since 1995 the average variable rate has only been 7.4 per cent. And that’s mainly because the RBA has kept the pace of consumer price inflation to between 2-3 per cent per annum (give or take).

For the last year or so I’ve expressed my concerns about the RBA’s political independence, and the fact that the bank itself is worried about the integrity of its price stability mandate in the wider community. These anxieties appear increasingly justified given mounting criticisms of RBA decisions and calls from leading stakeholders for the government to change the way the RBA acts.

Of course, this government has already controversially taken the RBA board’s pay-setting powers away from it (because Wayne Swan felt the governor was getting too much), and has stacked the board with appointees it believes will be less zealous about inflation fighting.

And all of this has occurred at a time when the labour market is near fully employed, borrowing rates are around their 15 year averages, private investment is at record highs and the economy continues to expand.

The RBA has shifted away from 'forecasting' towards what the governor calls 'nowcasting'. That is, sitting back and watching the hard empirical data flow through, and trying, to the best of its ability, to work out what the pulse of growth and inflation look like in the present (or recent past). When it comes to forecasting inflation, past outcomes are, in fact, one of your best guides.

Politically, the powerful thing about 'nowcasting' is that it is externally explicable. The RBA knows it is never going to convince the community or, nowadays, its own board, about the reliability of its long-term inflation guesses. The second-best alternative, therefore, is to set policy based on the highest quality information it has about what is happening right now.

So how, then, should one think about the probabilities around May? Well, the RBA tells us (if we listen) that it has one main policy goal, which is its 2-3 per cent per annum, through-the-cycle, "inflation target".

By the Reserve Bank's own logic, it can cut rates in May if the first quarter inflation data suggest the underlying pulse of consumer price pressures is advancing at less than the mid-point of its target band.

In principle, if core inflation prints at 0.7 per cent or higher, and the six and 12 month core measures are also above 2.5 per cent, the bank should not be cutting rates in May. Clearly, the converse is also true.

Here it is useful to remember that the deputy governor of the RBA told parliamentarians in February that its “central forecast has unemployment drifting up to around 5.5 per cent.” And this was said after two rate cuts and a bit of currency depreciation.

Instead, the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly steady at around 5.2 per cent with leading indicators, such as job advertisements and the various business surveys, implying that employment growth will improve a bit. Indeed, ANZ have published an analysis of the latest labour force data and concluded that the unemployment rate may have peaked.

The chart from ANZ below shows the 12-month change in the unemployment rate (orange line) plotted against the 12-month change in GDP (blue line). You can see what the RBA and many analysts have long suspected: the unemployment rate is a far less volatile indicator of economic growth than the point estimate that is outputted by the ABS via its national accounts calculations.

Posted Image

ANZ argues (as I have) that the fact that Australia’s unemployment rate has remained basically unchanged since the middle of 2011 suggests that the economy is probably tracking close to its trend rate of growth. It just so happens that another key proxy for growth, NAB’s business conditions index, is also close to trend.

Given it takes 1-2 years for rate changes today to have their full impact on activity, and given what the sweep of data tell us about current activity, the only credible basis for a rate cut in May is an unambiguous sign that inflation is lower than it needs to be. But until we get the hard data on April 24, all the guesses as to what the RBA may or may not do (excuse the pun) are pure noise. That is, irrelevant speculation.

There are two risks to this analysis. One possibility is that the RBA is politically pressured into cutting even with a high inflation print because of the numerical dominance of the six doves and a politically-appointed treasury secretary on its board. I think this is a low probability risk, but a risk nonetheless. Now is as good a time as any to make a statement about your independence for the benefit of folks like Paul Howes (A tangle of interest rate fish hooks, April 11).

Another is that ANZ and the other banks lift lending rates in the interim, which gives the RBA an “excuse” to cut rates in May even with a high inflation print if only to neutralise the change in lending rates. I think it is entirely possible that the ANZ does indeed nudge up its rates today, which makes tactical and strategic sense for reasons I have discussed previously. This would tilt my rate probabilities further towards a cut, subject to what the 24th tells us.

Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/RBA-Reserve-Bank-interest-rates-ANZ-rate-cut-pd20120413-TB2DV
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RBA must cut rates to encourage more Australian buyers: Harry Triguboff – RBA rates decision countdown

By Larry Schlesinger
Friday, 13 April 2012

Meriton boss Harry Triguboff has demanded that the RBA cut interest rates to encourage more local buyers of his apartments following the completion of another project in Sydney.

Triguboff says interest rates are currently too high.

“He [RBA governor Glenn Stevens] has to drop [the cash rate]. I can’t believe it’s that high,” Triguboff said as the red ribbon was cut on his 24-storey Vantage apartment block in Rhodes in Western Sydney.

Triguboff says further rate cuts would increase demand for his apartment projects.

“[Rate cuts will make them] a little cheaper and will bring buyers back into the market,” he told The Australian Financial Review.

“It got to a stage [last year] where I had 85% of purchasers who were Chinese, and now it’s down to 65%.

“We’re very happy with Chinese coming here, but we must have our own.”

According to Triguboff, there is strong demand for apartments in Sydney, as long as they are priced correctly.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/rba-rate-decision/rba-must-cut-rates-to-encourage-more-australian-buyers-harry-triguboff-%E2%80%93-rba-rates-decision-countdown
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Alex Barton
13 Apr 2012, 09:36 PM
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RBA must cut rates to encourage more Australian buyers: Harry Triguboff – RBA rates decision countdown

By Larry Schlesinger
Friday, 13 April 2012

Meriton boss Harry Triguboff has demanded that the RBA cut interest rates to encourage more local buyers of his apartments following the completion of another project in Sydney.

Triguboff says interest rates are currently too high.

“He [RBA governor Glenn Stevens] has to drop [the cash rate]. I can’t believe it’s that high,” Triguboff said as the red ribbon was cut on his 24-storey Vantage apartment block in Rhodes in Western Sydney.

Triguboff says further rate cuts would increase demand for his apartment projects.

“[Rate cuts will make them] a little cheaper and will bring buyers back into the market,” he told The Australian Financial Review.

“It got to a stage [last year] where I had 85% of purchasers who were Chinese, and now it’s down to 65%.

“We’re very happy with Chinese coming here, but we must have our own.”

According to Triguboff, there is strong demand for apartments in Sydney, as long as they are priced correctly.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/rba-rate-decision/rba-must-cut-rates-to-encourage-more-australian-buyers-harry-triguboff-%E2%80%93-rba-rates-decision-countdown
But won't the Chinese sell when the rates start to drop?

They will get creamed by the exchange rates.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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ANZ hikes rates - RBA will seriously look at a 50 bp cut in May

The ANZ hiked its mortgage rate by 6 basis points in response to higher funding costs, largely in the wholesale market. Like any business that wants to maintain profitability by putting up its price of dog food, hamburgers, washing powder or carpet when input prices rise, the banks are simply operating in a rational way.

Now perhaps banks and interest rates are slightly different to the market for dog food, but as long as there is sufficient competition and price gouging is not occurring, it’s simply the market operating as it should.

For the RBA, the move from ANZ sends a powerful signal that for monetary policy to move to an even slightly neutral setting, a cut of more than 25bps is needed on 1 May. With mortgage rates around 10 to 15bps higher than at the start of the year and the economic news notably weaker, a 25 cut will not be sufficient to boost cash flows, confidence and lock inflation in the target band. There is no certainty that a 25 cut in May would even be passed on in full, making such a move close to useless when the economy needs a bit of a kick start.

The RBA needs to cut 50 basis points in May. It knows the Budget will be tight; it knows market conditions are skittish; it knows there is spare capacity building in the Australian economy; it will know after the March quarter CPI on 24 April that inflation is well contained.

Thankfully Glenn Stevens is super-pragmatic. He just might come to the view that a little more monetary stimulus is needed in the current economic and market environment and try to convince the Board that a 25 cut isn't enough.

Read more: http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/anz-hikes-rates-rba-will-seriously-look.html
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RBA will cut by 50bp? Says who? Some outsider. Another "expert" who *wants* it to be cut. On channel 9 "news" they also said "experts" say they'll cut, they even had some real estate agent douche saying Sydney needs a boost.

They will not cut. These "experts" are just puppets for the property mafia.
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Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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Mortgage Interest Rates and Unemployment – Why the RBA Can Cut 50 in May

A few excitable, inexperienced and unimaginative people judged the labour force data last week as a reason why the RBA would/should be cautious about cutting interest rates. Recall employment rose by 44,000 and the unemployment rate was steady at 5.2%.

It might be useful to look at RBA policy settings against the unemployment rate over the past decade to see how far behind the curve the RBA risks getting if it doesn’t cut 50 basis points in May and probably more beyond that. The RBA seems to have been wimpish in holding off rate cuts so far in 2012 and here is why.

Let’s go back to the period around 2004 to 2006 to look at why interest rates should be 50 to 75 or even 100 basis points lower than they are now and how a sub-7% mortgage rate is prudent and entirely consist with the recent labour force data.

Before we start, I note the current standard mortgage interest rate is around 7.4% and that over the past year or so, the unemployment rate has generally edged up from around 5.0% to around 5.25%. Fact.

But what happened in 2004?

During that year, the unemployment rate drifted lower – from around 5.5% at the start of the year to around 5.25% by the end, yet mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 6.75% … right through the year. The RBA did not adjust monetary policy at all in 2004.

During 2005, the unemployment rate was again steady to slightly lower. It drifted from around 5.25% to around 5.0% by year end - a nice result but hardly a rapid move to an overheated labour market. In March of 2005, the RBA delivered the only rate rise for the year with a single 25 basis point rate rise. It cited “higher employment costs” as a reason for the hike. Mortgage rates edged up to around 6.95%.

See the pattern? Over a two year period where the unemployment had very slowly, but very assuredly edged down from 5.5% to 5.0%, mortgage interest rates were around 6.75 to 6.95%.

I would also note that over these two years, fiscal policy was also generally stoking the fire with real government spending rising 3.9% in 2003-04; 3.5% in 2004-05 and a tub thumping 4.6% in 2005-06. That’s 12.5% real growth in government spending in 3 years. Due to a record tax to GDP ratio, there was a 0.7% of GDP rise in the underlying cash Budget balance over that 3 year period.

Only in 2006, as the unemployment rate fell well below 5.0% and actually ended the year around 4.5% did the mortgage rate rise substantially, - it reached 7.6% by the end of 2006.

Which brings us to now.

As mentioned, unemployment rate has inched up to around 5.25% having been a touch below 5.0% a year or so ago. Aided by RBA monetary policy decisions, but hurt by wholesale funding conditions, mortgage rates have only fallen a bit and are now around 7.4% - as you can plainly see, a rate 50 to 75 basis points higher than when the unemployment rate was at similar levels and falling 6 or 7 years ago.

I note that in terms of fiscal policy in this cycle, real government spending fell 0.4% in 2010-11, will rise 3.7% in 2011-12 but will fall by a near record 3.0% in 2012-13. This is a total rise of around 0.2% in government spending in 3 years. The Budget balance will contract by a record 4.3% of GDP in those 3 years.

So there we have the contrast: The last time the unemployment rate was in the low 5s, mortgage interest rates were some 50 to 60 to 70 basis points lower than where they are now, and that was with public demand adding to inflation risks.

We now have unemployment in the low 5s, fiscal policy is tighter than a bass drum yet the mortgage interest rate is 7.4%.

The bottom line is that the RBA has oodles of scope to be cutting interest rates and only in recent times has the Bank realised this. It knows it has to catch up – it knows banking funding cost pressures mean they will have to cut official rates harder to achieve the same impact on mortgage interest rates by way of example. It also knows that overall activity is still on the soft side.

So get set for a 50 basis point cut in official interest rates in May. Such a move is essential if the RBA is to catch up to where rates should be – that is, with mortgage rates at 7.0% or a little less.

Read more: http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/mortgage-interest-rates-and.html
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