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What a real property boom/bubble looks like... Ireland; Will Australia have a proper property boom like this in the future?
Topic Started: 28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM (7,030 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Did Australia experience price rises anything like this?

Irish house prices quadrupled, and prices in the capital, Dublin (with 40% of the Irish population), rose by a factor of more than 5 times, over a ten year period.

http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/3/Irish-House-Prices-Since-1996.html

Posted Image

Does anyone believe Australia will have a boom like this in the future?

We certainly haven't had one yet...
Edited by Shadow, 28 Mar 2012, 07:08 PM.
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All property bubbles had one thing in common...
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
6 - Australian household formation rate faster than population growth rate since 1960s = ongoing improvement in housing affordability.
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b_b
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Shadow
28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM
Did Australia experience price rises anything like this?

Irish house prices quadrupled, and prices in the capital, Dublin (with 40% of the Irish population), rose by a factor of more than 5 times, over a ten year period.

http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/3/Irish-House-Prices-Since-1996.html

Posted Image

Does anyone believe Australia will have a boom like this in the future?

We certainly haven't had one yet...
Pretty interesting chart.

Of course it is even worse for Ireland, as they do not even have their own currency, so their ability to re-stimulate the economy is compromised.
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Andrew
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Shadow
28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM
Did Australia experience price rises anything like this?

Irish house prices quadrupled, and prices in the capital, Dublin (with 40% of the Irish population), rose by a factor of more than 5 times, over a ten year period.

http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/3/Irish-House-Prices-Since-1996.html

Posted Image

Does anyone believe Australia will have a boom like this in the future?

We certainly haven't had one yet...
Would you suggest that only if a country has a boom of this magnitude, can significant price falls subsequently occur? (forgetting for a moment semantics of whether a "bubble" exists, what defines it, etc)
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earthsta
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THIS is Australias future.

1998 house prices....here we come!

http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/26/Japan-Urban-Land-Index.html
Edited by earthsta, 28 Mar 2012, 08:10 PM.
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earthsta
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Hey swallow....you haven't mentioned that currently house prices in Irelands largest city are currently AU$289k. How does that compare to Australias largest city house prices? About half, isn't it?
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

earthsta
28 Mar 2012, 08:01 PM
Hey swallow....you haven't mentioned that currently house prices in Irelands largest city are currently AU$289k. How does that compare to Australias largest city house prices? About half, isn't it?
Australia is not Ireland.

Ireland does not have the massive resource industry that sustains Australia.

Australia has ample natural resources for which there exists incredibly strong demand. Even if China slows, there will still be demand.
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Aussiehouseprices
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NotFooled
28 Mar 2012, 08:18 PM
Australia is not Ireland.

Ireland does not have the massive resource industry that sustains Australia.

Australia has ample natural resources for which there exists incredibly strong demand. Even if China slows, there will still be demand.
Why does demand for resources mean than a property bubble cannot form, and burst?
Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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Rastus2
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NotFooled
28 Mar 2012, 08:18 PM
Australia is not Ireland.

Ireland does not have the massive resource industry that sustains Australia.

Australia has ample natural resources for which there exists incredibly strong demand. Even if China slows, there will still be demand.
Still having demand is not enough... we need strong demand.. far stronger than capacity can easily manage.

As was explained quite well on radio national this afternoon... it's not the demand that is driving the boom, it's the price. (ie. demand much greater than supply).

Australia is investing a massive amount of money into capacity... as this ramps up we can expect prices to lower.
If/when it co-incides with any falling of demand we can expect that price fall to accelerate.

Ireland was king of the world financially and not many expected the demand for their economic drivers to fail...
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Rastus2
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Shadow
28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM
Did Australia experience price rises anything like this?

Irish house prices quadrupled, and prices in the capital, Dublin (with 40% of the Irish population), rose by a factor of more than 5 times, over a ten year period.

http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/3/Irish-House-Prices-Since-1996.html

Posted Image

Does anyone believe Australia will have a boom like this in the future?

We certainly haven't had one yet...
Your threads seem to have become shrill with desperation recently...
So your last desperate straw to cling to that Australia will have a new housing boom (starting in Sydney right now) is this comparison ?

If we can not match Ireland we can not possibly have a crash...
If we have not had a boom the same as Ireland then we certainly should based on your metric in another thread ..

Oddly, America did not have the Irish boom... they hit a brick wall .

Posted Image


Why cherry pick Ireland ?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Andrew
28 Mar 2012, 07:15 PM
Would you suggest that only if a country has a boom of this magnitude, can significant price falls subsequently occur? (forgetting for a moment semantics of whether a "bubble" exists, what defines it, etc)
No... the USA has had recent falls similar in magnitude to Ireland, but without such a large boom beforehand.

I'm from Ireland originally, so found this data interesting when I discovered it today, and decided to share.

House prices multiplying by a factor of 4x to 5x in only 10 years is extraordinary growth... has this ever been experienced elsewhere?

(I don't think it will happen in Australia, by the way).
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All property bubbles had one thing in common...
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
6 - Australian household formation rate faster than population growth rate since 1960s = ongoing improvement in housing affordability.
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