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What a real property boom/bubble looks like... Ireland; Will Australia have a proper property boom like this in the future?
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Topic Started: 28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM (5,300 Views)
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Shadow
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28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM
Post #1
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Evil Zealot Specufestor
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Did Australia experience price rises anything like this?
Irish house prices quadrupled, and prices in the capital, Dublin (with 40% of the Irish population), rose by a factor of more than 5 times, over a ten year period.
http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/3/Irish-House-Prices-Since-1996.html
Does anyone believe Australia will have a boom like this in the future?
We certainly haven't had one yet...
Edited by Shadow, 28 Mar 2012, 07:08 PM. |
Shadow's Blog - The Australian Housing Market
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All confirmed property bubbles had one thing in common... a particular house price/income ratio pattern.
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans are regulated by the NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is the second highest taxed sector of the Australian Economy. Renters don't pay their fair share of tax, and are subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
Parse: A rep's spare spear pares pears, reaps as per AREPS.
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b_b
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28 Mar 2012, 07:12 PM
Post #2
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- Shadow
- 28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM
Pretty interesting chart.
Of course it is even worse for Ireland, as they do not even have their own currency, so their ability to re-stimulate the economy is compromised.
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Andrew
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28 Mar 2012, 07:15 PM
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- Shadow
- 28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM
Would you suggest that only if a country has a boom of this magnitude, can significant price falls subsequently occur? (forgetting for a moment semantics of whether a "bubble" exists, what defines it, etc)
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earthsta
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28 Mar 2012, 07:50 PM
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THIS is Australias future.
1998 house prices....here we come!
http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/26/Japan-Urban-Land-Index.html
Edited by earthsta, 28 Mar 2012, 08:10 PM. |
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earthsta
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28 Mar 2012, 08:01 PM
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Hey swallow....you haven't mentioned that currently house prices in Irelands largest city are currently AU$289k. How does that compare to Australias largest city house prices? About half, isn't it?
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NotFooled
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28 Mar 2012, 08:18 PM
Post #6
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The Bear Whisperer
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- earthsta
- 28 Mar 2012, 08:01 PM
Hey swallow....you haven't mentioned that currently house prices in Irelands largest city are currently AU$289k. How does that compare to Australias largest city house prices? About half, isn't it?
Australia is not Ireland.
Ireland does not have the massive resource industry that sustains Australia.
Australia has ample natural resources for which there exists incredibly strong demand. Even if China slows, there will still be demand.
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Aussiehouseprices
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28 Mar 2012, 08:40 PM
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- NotFooled
- 28 Mar 2012, 08:18 PM
Australia is not Ireland.
Ireland does not have the massive resource industry that sustains Australia.
Australia has ample natural resources for which there exists incredibly strong demand. Even if China slows, there will still be demand.
Why does demand for resources mean than a property bubble cannot form, and burst?
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Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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Rastus2
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28 Mar 2012, 08:59 PM
Post #8
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- NotFooled
- 28 Mar 2012, 08:18 PM
Australia is not Ireland.
Ireland does not have the massive resource industry that sustains Australia.
Australia has ample natural resources for which there exists incredibly strong demand. Even if China slows, there will still be demand.
Still having demand is not enough... we need strong demand.. far stronger than capacity can easily manage.
As was explained quite well on radio national this afternoon... it's not the demand that is driving the boom, it's the price. (ie. demand much greater than supply).
Australia is investing a massive amount of money into capacity... as this ramps up we can expect prices to lower.
If/when it co-incides with any falling of demand we can expect that price fall to accelerate.
Ireland was king of the world financially and not many expected the demand for their economic drivers to fail...
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Joye did not understand the functions of the RBA,
Joye did not read the ABS tables correctly
Joyd did not predict the most major financial collapse in the world since the great depression...
Keen can and has done all of the above... but Shadow is still blind to those simple facts, and he claims ..
- Shadow
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For the most part, Chris Joye's predictions have been quite accurate - certainly a lot closer to the mark than Steve Keen.
Love is Blind :c)
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Rastus2
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28 Mar 2012, 09:05 PM
Post #9
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- Shadow
- 28 Mar 2012, 07:05 PM
Your threads seem to have become shrill with desperation recently...
So your last desperate straw to cling to that Australia will have a new housing boom (starting in Sydney right now) is this comparison ?
If we can not match Ireland we can not possibly have a crash...
If we have not had a boom the same as Ireland then we certainly should based on your metric in another thread ..
Oddly, America did not have the Irish boom... they hit a brick wall .
Why cherry pick Ireland ?
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Joye did not understand the functions of the RBA,
Joye did not read the ABS tables correctly
Joyd did not predict the most major financial collapse in the world since the great depression...
Keen can and has done all of the above... but Shadow is still blind to those simple facts, and he claims ..
- Shadow
-
For the most part, Chris Joye's predictions have been quite accurate - certainly a lot closer to the mark than Steve Keen.
Love is Blind :c)
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Shadow
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28 Mar 2012, 09:13 PM
Post #10
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Evil Zealot Specufestor
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- Andrew
- 28 Mar 2012, 07:15 PM
Would you suggest that only if a country has a boom of this magnitude, can significant price falls subsequently occur? (forgetting for a moment semantics of whether a "bubble" exists, what defines it, etc)
No... the USA has had recent falls similar in magnitude to Ireland, but without such a large boom beforehand.
I'm from Ireland originally, so found this data interesting when I discovered it today, and decided to share.
House prices multiplying by a factor of 4x to 5x in only 10 years is extraordinary growth... has this ever been experienced elsewhere?
(I don't think it will happen in Australia, by the way).
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Shadow's Blog - The Australian Housing Market
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All confirmed property bubbles had one thing in common... a particular house price/income ratio pattern.
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans are regulated by the NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is the second highest taxed sector of the Australian Economy. Renters don't pay their fair share of tax, and are subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
Parse: A rep's spare spear pares pears, reaps as per AREPS.
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earthsta
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28 Mar 2012, 09:15 PM
Post #11
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- NotFooled
- 28 Mar 2012, 08:18 PM
- earthsta
- 28 Mar 2012, 08:01 PM
Hey swallow....you haven't mentioned that currently house prices in Irelands largest city are currently AU$289k. How does that compare to Australias largest city house prices? About half, isn't it?
Australia is not Ireland. Ireland does not have the massive resource industry that sustains Australia. Australia has ample natural resources for which there exists incredibly strong demand. Even if China slows, there will still be demand.
Mining employs 2% of the population, Notool
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Shadow
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28 Mar 2012, 09:22 PM
Post #12
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Evil Zealot Specufestor
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- Rastus2
- 28 Mar 2012, 09:05 PM
If we can not match Ireland we can not possibly have a crash...
Why do you believe this to be the case? In fact, several countries have had a property crash without a boom of the magnitude seen in Ireland.
- Quote:
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If we have not had a boom the same as Ireland then we certainly should based on your metric in another thread ..
Which of my metrics leads you to believe this? When do you think we should have this boom?
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Shadow's Blog - The Australian Housing Market
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All confirmed property bubbles had one thing in common... a particular house price/income ratio pattern.
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans are regulated by the NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is the second highest taxed sector of the Australian Economy. Renters don't pay their fair share of tax, and are subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
Parse: A rep's spare spear pares pears, reaps as per AREPS.
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Rastus2
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28 Mar 2012, 09:47 PM
Post #13
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- Shadow
- 28 Mar 2012, 09:22 PM
Which of my metrics leads you to believe this? When do you think we should have this boom?
I do not believe this to be the case... I was reflecting the way your posts read... it's funny that you are able to question them when I put them to you, but fail to see how silly they are when you post them.
They really are rather silly proposals from you aren't they ?
What makes me think you are clutching at these straws ?
Is your memory failing you ?
- Quote:
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If we can not match Ireland we can not possibly have a crash...
answer - This thread...
- Quote:
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If we have not had a boom the same as Ireland then we certainly should based on your metric in another thread ..
Answer... to what metrics you use to claim that we should have a boom ?
- Shadow
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Surely as the nation with the highest median wealth in the world, and the fifth highest GDP per capita in the world, Australia also deserves to have the highest house prices in the world?
Edited by Rastus2, 28 Mar 2012, 09:50 PM. |
Joye did not understand the functions of the RBA,
Joye did not read the ABS tables correctly
Joyd did not predict the most major financial collapse in the world since the great depression...
Keen can and has done all of the above... but Shadow is still blind to those simple facts, and he claims ..
- Shadow
-
For the most part, Chris Joye's predictions have been quite accurate - certainly a lot closer to the mark than Steve Keen.
Love is Blind :c)
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Shadow
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28 Mar 2012, 09:50 PM
Post #14
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Evil Zealot Specufestor
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- Rastus2
- 28 Mar 2012, 09:47 PM
They really are rather silly proposals from you aren't they ?
They were your proposals. You proposed them, not me.
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Shadow's Blog - The Australian Housing Market
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All confirmed property bubbles had one thing in common... a particular house price/income ratio pattern.
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans are regulated by the NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is the second highest taxed sector of the Australian Economy. Renters don't pay their fair share of tax, and are subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
Parse: A rep's spare spear pares pears, reaps as per AREPS.
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b_b
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28 Mar 2012, 09:54 PM
Post #15
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- Rastus2
- 28 Mar 2012, 08:59 PM
Still having demand is not enough... we need strong demand.. far stronger than capacity can easily manage.
As was explained quite well on radio national this afternoon... it's not the demand that is driving the boom, it's the price. (ie. demand much greater than supply).
Australia is investing a massive amount of money into capacity... as this ramps up we can expect prices to lower.
If/when it co-incides with any falling of demand we can expect that price fall to accelerate.
Ireland was king of the world financially and not many expected the demand for their economic drivers to fail...
Totally agree. Resources is all about the marginal cost of supply.
For companies like Vale, the marginal cost of iron ore is about US$20 per tonne (BHP not much more). Other Countries are soon to come on line were marginal cost of production is around US$5 per tonne (Africa). Prices are certain to collapse.
Of course this will not mean much to the average Australian not employed in the resources sector.
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10:54 PM May 24