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Who Predicted The GFC Global Financial Crisis: Nouriel Roubini, Steve Keen, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber; Harry Dent, Robert Shiller, Paul Krugman, George Soros, Jeremy Grantham, Dean Baker, Gary Shilling, Nassim Taleb
Topic Started: 14 Mar 2012, 07:46 AM (13,277 Views)
MMM
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I have never been a fan of keen. But it seems as though his predictions are taking a bit longer than expected. Unemoyment would be well over 20% if you used the old calculating method not the new improved one to stymy the numbers. When you don't count people on the dole who have worked 1 hour a week as unemoyed , or more so many to sickness or disability benefits and then not count them. Most have worked out that to feign illness or sickness, either mental or physical brings many benefits. They don't have to work for the dole, or pretend to look for work, they get more money and do far less and then don't get counted as unemployed, hence the higher number of people now sickness benefits as opposed to unemployment benefits. The government allowed this shit to go on just to make there numbers look better than they really are.

No recession shadow. I don't rememeber losing our motor industry during the great depression, I don't remember our production and manufacturing collapsing during the great depression. I don't remember them giving no deposit loans to people with no job and have them pay interest only during the great depression.

Maybe our economy will just thrive on all the jobs and industries we are losing , that will never return.
Industries and jobs that have been here for hundreds of years. As bp would say , the transmutation has begun. What job is safe these days, a Garbo working for the council is probably the most secure .
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MMM
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Better still , who didn't predict the GFC. I'll tell you who , all the so called expert wankers in this video. How could so many so called experts get it so wrong when it was clearly spelt out to them, could not have been made any clearer whatsoever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw&feature=youtube_gdata_player
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stinkbug
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MMM
26 Mar 2014, 01:17 PM
I don't remember them giving no deposit loans to people with no job and have them pay interest only during the great depression.

Got any examples of this happening in Australia?
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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zaph
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MMM
26 Mar 2014, 01:17 PM
Unemoyment would be well over 20% if you used the old calculating method not the new improved one to stymy the numbers. When you don't count people on the dole who have worked 1 hour a week as unemoyed , or more so many to sickness or disability benefits and then not count them.
What's the difference between the old and new methods?

When did the new method come in?
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goldbug
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stinkbug
26 Mar 2014, 06:02 PM
MMM
26 Mar 2014, 01:17 PM
I don't remember them giving no deposit loans to people with no job and have them pay interest only during the great depression.

Got any examples of this happening in Australia?
lol. I knew a guy who got one, lots of people got them. All you had to do was tell the agent you had no deposit and a lot would add it to the cost of the house, hence to the value of the loan. A check for the deposit is accepted (but never cashed) And when settlement date arrives and the money is tranferred the check is torn up. There is nothing really illegal in that, someone just paid a little too much for a house and a check was lost.

This idea that Australia was soooo different from the US is just that, an idea planted in the heads of Australians so as to settle their fears and encourage them to go out and buy a million more investment properties.

Do you know that on the goldcoast 1/3 of all properties (units, houses) are rentals?
That's half the explanation why it crashed. Many investors needed or wanted out and a lot sold below market, pushing the prices down. Owner occupiers wouldn't have done that, most would have clung on to their homes.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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stinkbug
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goldbug
26 Mar 2014, 06:36 PM
lol. I knew a guy who got one, lots of people got them. All you had to do was tell the agent you had no deposit and a lot would add it to the cost of the house, hence to the value of the loan. A check for the deposit is accepted (but never cashed) And when settlement date arrives and the money is tranferred the check is torn up. There is nothing really illegal in that, someone just paid a little too much for a house and a check was lost.

This idea that Australia was soooo different from the US is just that, an idea planted in the heads of Australians so as to settle their fears and encourage them to go out and buy a million more investment properties.

Do you know that on the goldcoast 1/3 of all properties (units, houses) are rentals?
That's half the explanation why it crashed. Many investors needed or wanted out and a lot sold below market, pushing the prices down. Owner occupiers wouldn't have done that, most would have clung on to their homes.
There were a few subprime loans in Australia, but they represented only about 4% of total loans.

Re the Gold Coast, it's generally accepted that in Australia a third of people live in rentals, a third live in a house being paid off and a third live in an unencumbered property. Why would the GC be that much different? That said, the GC always booms and busts more than most other markets in Australia, so no real surprise there.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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goldbug
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zaph
26 Mar 2014, 06:20 PM
MMM
26 Mar 2014, 01:17 PM
Unemoyment would be well over 20% if you used the old calculating method not the new improved one to stymy the numbers. When you don't count people on the dole who have worked 1 hour a week as unemoyed , or more so many to sickness or disability benefits and then not count them.
What's the difference between the old and new methods?

When did the new method come in?
Your answer is in the bit you quoted, read it again then google the date when Australia switched to the international standard used to calculate unemployment.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-14/janda-doing-a-job-on-employment-figures/4009594
Edited by goldbug, 26 Mar 2014, 06:43 PM.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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MMM
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stinkbug
26 Mar 2014, 06:02 PM
Got any examples of this happening in Australia?
Care to address anything else I said...........



As for examples , there would be plenty , probably tens of thousands, who really knows. They are called lo doc or no doc loans and have been going for over ten years now that I know of and maybe a while longer.

At one stage , all you needed was an abn registered . No tax returns , no proof of income whatever and no proof of assets. Just a declaration made by the borrower. When things started going downhill in 2008, they cracked down on this slightly, to the point you needed a registered an as well as a letter from an accountant stating that you were earning so much a year, but again with no proof what soever, no tax returns, and there were plenty of hard up accountants willing to type out a page of bullshit and charge you $450 for doing so, this was standard procedure on no doc loans and every broker knew an accountant mate who could do this for you, remember there are lo doc and no doc loans, which pretty much says it all .

As far as I am aware the later of what of I have said it still what goes on .

Peter Fraser could verify what I have said is true , go on Peter , tell the boys how it works....

And stinky , how's Canberra going down there apart from cold.
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MMm
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zaph
26 Mar 2014, 06:20 PM
What's the difference between the old and new methods?

When did the new method come in?
Hello zaph


Brilliant question,I can see goldy has answered some after his chat with stinkya few posts ahead. . But its not so much the method but the methods , for which there are a few, and some are a slow transition, like the slow but sure transition of people from the dole to sickness benefits, they know they now get more money and have to do far less if anything. They are then no longer counted as unemployed, and we now have more people on sickness benefits than on the dole, did we learn that from america too. That's been a slow transition to constantly make the numbers look better as they have transitioned from the dole to sickness benefits. One learns the rort and the sheep follow to the greener paddock, it turns to a snowball , shown in people from dole to sickness benefits, and constantly improves the unemployment rates, no rocket science , just the government trying to pull the wool over all your eyes.
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goldbug
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stinkbug
26 Mar 2014, 06:39 PM
goldbug
26 Mar 2014, 06:36 PM

Do you know that on the goldcoast 1/3 of all properties (units, houses) are rentals?


Re the Gold Coast, it's generally accepted that in Australia a third of people live in rentals, a third live in a house being paid off and a third live in an unencumbered property. Why would the GC be that much different?
What has the number of people who live in rental properties in australia have to do with the number OF rental properties, on the gold coast or elsewhere?

It is generally accepted that in Australia one in 5 residential properties is an investment property.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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