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Who Predicted The GFC Global Financial Crisis: Nouriel Roubini, Steve Keen, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber; Harry Dent, Robert Shiller, Paul Krugman, George Soros, Jeremy Grantham, Dean Baker, Gary Shilling, Nassim Taleb
Topic Started: 14 Mar 2012, 07:46 AM (13,281 Views)
Rastus2
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Shadow
15 Mar 2012, 01:28 PM
Why all the abuse? The links prove my list to be accurate. If that upsets you... tough.
what abuse ?
You seem to mix any criticism and observation of your actions as abuse.
Toughen up shady.

I am just being honest and asking why you are so angry lately, especially with regard to Keen.

Just let go if the envious rage and move on..

BRW and now http://www.investorhome.com/predicted.htm (as well as other news media) have all acknowledged that Keen predicted the GFC....

You and strindberg seem to be on a crusade to try to remove him from history in this... Creating a flawed (already debunked) list is not proof, nor is getting an egomaniac (Joye) to post it in his splog.

I highly doubt that the major news media will run with your version of history... still, if rage is what you run on, carry on.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
15 Mar 2012, 11:19 PM
BRW and now http://www.investorhome.com/predicted.htm (as well as other news media) have all acknowledged that Keen predicted the GFC
However none of them have actually explained what it was exactly that Steve Keen predicted. The 'GFC' was not one event... it was a financial crisis spanning a long timeframe, involving many events, and it is still ongoing. If Steve Keen's 'successful prediction' was simply that there would be a financial crisis sometime, then it's not much of a prediction. Financial crises occur regularly. It's easy to predict that another one will occur in the future. In fact, it is a certainty that one will occur in the future.

Keen did predict a number of specific events that were supposed to occur in Australia, all of which failed to eventuate, as per my list (ZIRP by 2010, 40% house price crash, double digit unemployment, severe recession etc).

Was there any specific event that he predicted correctly? So far, nobody has been able to identity such a prediction. The only 'successful' prediction we have from Keen is a vague prediction that there would be a financial crisis sometime in the future.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
15 Mar 2012, 11:30 PM
However none of them have actually explained what it was exactly that Steve Keen predicted. The 'GFC' was not one event... it was a financial crisis spanning a long timeframe, involving many events, and it is still ongoing. If Steve Keen's 'successful prediction' was simply that there would be a financial crisis sometime, then it's not much of a prediction. Financial crises occur regularly. It's easy to predict that another one will occur in the future. In fact, it is a certainty that one will occur in the future.

Quote:
 
If Steve Keen's 'successful prediction' was simply that there would be a financial crisis sometime, then it's not much of a prediction.


In a sea of mania, one man's warning cries are deemed rubbish, until his warnings prove correct.
Then, his cries are deemed 'not much of a prediction' in the post debt crisis era because he was not specific enough :rolleyes: .

What did you expect ? To be spoon fed 100% exact dates and Debt:equity ratio from a prediction before you understand that keen warned may happen well before others even knew that a serious problem existed, and raised his level of warning to highly likley and then inevitable as the threat rose.

It's easy to attack the tall poppy isn't it ? The odd one out... the bear amongst the bull mania... it's far more difficult to eat a bit of humble pie... that taste is not to your liking, or Mr. Joye, the economic guru who managed to completely miss the GFC until it was upon him.

I find it funny that those self proclaimed 'experts' who were so dismissive of keen's warnings are the first to deride him as being correct about debt problems when the debt collapse happened.

You can nit-pick whatever you like, but your blind jealousy is obvious to all.. and the cherry-nit-picked versions of his predictions you use as evidence are anything but unbiased.... I won't bother debunking them again, once was enough.

I'll ask you again... care to cite (and link) all the predictions you claim that you have made ? I'd like to see evidence of your 80-90% success rate over the years... (don't forget to include your misses and revisions).
Edited by Rastus2, 16 Mar 2012, 02:24 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
16 Mar 2012, 02:23 AM
Mr. Joye, the economic guru who managed to completely miss the GFC until it was upon him
I assume Joye thought it would be pointless to predict a future financial crisis. It would be like predicting future rain. A certainty - everyone knows it will rain in the future... what's the point of publicly predicting it?

Steve Keen did predict a future financial crisis, one that he said would be characterised in Australia by ZIRP, severe recession, double digit unemployment, and a 40% crash in house prices.

It would be like if I predicted it would rain in the future, and I claimed the rain would come in the form of pink elephant rain, which would smash up 40% of houses in Australia, causing double-digit trillion dollar damage to the country and leading to severe riots and anarchy. Then a few days later it rains. Just normal rain. But I claim my prediction was correct because it rained... I just got a few of the details wrong, but my prediction was still accurate.
Edited by Shadow, 16 Mar 2012, 08:13 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Catweasel
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Shadow
16 Mar 2012, 08:13 AM
I assume Joye thought it would be pointless to predict a future financial crisis. It would be like predicting future rain. A certainty - everyone knows it will rain in the future... what's the point of publicly predicting it?

Steve Keen did predict a future financial crisis, one that he said would be characterised in Australia by ZIRP, severe recession, double digit unemployment, and a 40% crash in house prices.

It would be like if I predicted it would rain in the future, and I claimed the rain would come in the form of pink elephant rain, which would smash up 40% of houses in Australia, causing double-digit trillion dollar damage to the country and leading to severe riots and anarchy. Then a few days later it rains. Just normal rain. But I claim my prediction was correct because it rained... I just got a few of the details wrong, but my prediction was still accurate.
Catweasel say it can a learn from a behavior of a mouzealots and its gurus. Typically, any the contrarian view will the be ridiculed, but in most case it no more than stunt base upon lack of real understand of potential risk. That a where worth of one like Nutty the Professor. TO see behave of lack of understand, most famous the case is interview between a George Will and the Robert the Schiller. Of course a Will is populist journalist, which appeal to absolutism and emotional needs of mouzealot. At a time, America mouse believe that economy base on new elixir of asset price inflation as birthright and its own infallibility. Denigration of anti-guru, particularly by one that mouse respects, provides the security and faith that mouse and mouzelaots need. And that much like mouzealots of Australia. Ruled by jingoism and opportunistic masters, gurus and white shoe.
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Quote:
 
Vincent Browne Talking to Steve Keen of which is a professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney.

Steve was one of the few economists in the world to predict the financial crisis we are in now.
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perthmouse
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Alex Barton
26 Apr 2012, 09:13 AM


Hrmmm. Interesting. We do use linearisation of non linear systems as well as auto control methods to stabilize these systems. We do use it in vibration analysis, flow analysis, it can be used for any system That has an input. Has he done engineering because that's 4+ year stuff. I'm not saying he's right or that he's a god. but IF he gets all his inputs right and IF his loop is robust enough it wouldn't surprise me if he could model several time constants into the future quite accurately. Ours are accurate to 99%. And provided no random 'inputs' destabilize them they are correct for infinity. It's also interesting his note on speculation as why it would be a factor that would ever increase the value of an input. Like saying gravity will increase somewhere down the line. I'm not an economist but you could most likely pick points where your system destabilizes and a reset is required. If anyone's interested read up on Automatic control or feedback control for engineering. There's no reason it wouldn't work provided you take your time with getting it right. Of corse, at any moment the govt can 'stimulate' but it wouldn't change the system only increase the delay and it's severity. Even if he's right about doom and gloom systems that don't function can still be changed to reach new equlibiums it's just resetting the equilibrium point will 'piss' a lot of people off.
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TED BULLPIT
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I suppose he got it right eventually , just poor timing , better late than never. :D
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peter fraser
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perthmouse
26 Apr 2012, 01:50 PM
Alex Barton
26 Apr 2012, 09:13 AM
[flash=600,400]
Hrmmm. Interesting. We do use linearisation of non linear systems as well as auto control methods to stabilize these systems. We do use it in vibration analysis, flow analysis, it can be used for any system That has an input. Has he done engineering because that's 4+ year stuff. I'm not saying he's right or that he's a god. but IF he gets all his inputs right and IF his loop is robust enough it wouldn't surprise me if he could model several time constants into the future quite accurately. Ours are accurate to 99%. And provided no random 'inputs' destabilize them they are correct for infinity. It's also interesting his note on speculation as why it would be a factor that would ever increase the value of an input. Like saying gravity will increase somewhere down the line. I'm not an economist but you could most likely pick points where your system destabilizes and a reset is required. If anyone's interested read up on Automatic control or feedback control for engineering. There's no reason it wouldn't work provided you take your time with getting it right. Of corse, at any moment the govt can 'stimulate' but it wouldn't change the system only increase the delay and it's severity. Even if he's right about doom and gloom systems that don't function can still be changed to reach new equlibiums it's just resetting the equilibrium point will 'piss' a lot of people off.
I'm interested in what you have said, although I don't have the engineering skills to do the math.

How do you factor in human behaviour, which can range from euphoric to suicidal. What equation or graph can come to the conclusion that young teenage girls can orgasm during a "one direction" concert, and be driven to an obvious state of frenzy.

What makes some men aggressive over a slight issue, whilst others take it in their stride.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not being a smart arse here, I want to understand how you can factor in that human element into a model that predicts behaviours of humans, who are often quite unpredictable beasts.



Edited by peter fraser, 26 Apr 2012, 02:59 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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perthmouse
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peter fraser
26 Apr 2012, 02:58 PM
I'm interested in what you have said, although I don't have the engineering skills to do the math.

How do you factor in human behaviour, which can range from euphoric to suicidal. What equation or graph can come to the conclusion that young teenage girls can orgasm during a "one direction" concert, and be driven to an obvious state of frenzy.

What makes some men aggressive over a slight issue, whilst others take it in their stride.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not being a smart arse here, I want to understand how you can factor in that human element into a model that predicts behaviours of humans, who are often quite unpredictable beasts.


Nonsense, everyone can do the math, it just takes some a bit longer. Its a very very good topic. May I suggest some into to cal and advance calc books to begin with. Then the harder stuff. Its a very very excellent topic.

A fair amount of human behavior sadly can be modeled, if it couldn't we wouldn't have adverts directed at children between 3 and 6pm using pester power. Or psychological profiling for hiring employees (which is one of our requirements and emotional intelligence is a key contributor).

I think maybe one of the characteristics we share is ignorance. Keen may be able to show the system, predict the system and warn people of the system, but ultimately its up to people to listen and ignorance is one of our characteristics. If it wasn't people would be screaming 'nothing matters we rot in the ground and get enveloped by a star!'. Or sort of how we will ignore that noise the car engine is making until it comes to a grinding halt. But like a broken car engine it can usually be fixed.

That's where I believe the 'unpredictable' nature may be included. That when the system does break down it becomes a lot easier to make a decision we are predictable in that we patch it up rather than change it and in that way we are not unpredictable. Case in point, the first home owner boost came when the system broke. The decision wasn't to hold a 'one direction' concert or become aggressive and start punching or even look into why first home owners could no longer afford to enter the market. Everyone knew housing would have imploded if people hadn't been given 21k for free, who wouldn't want that.

I wouldn't believe many of keens predictions beyond a few months due to this. He did call bank of qld making a large loss a couple of months prior to it happening so that was a good call. Given all that, the majority of why his predictions have been off from what I've been seeing is that when ever he calls it, the government appears to spot it and say hmmm tax cut here. boost it here. tweak this there. They are only trying to do whats best for the people.

What Keen is trying to say that he doesn't really explain to well is that -

All economic value(input) is fixed.
All productive capacity(output) per person is fixed.
Speculation (note speculation not investment) generates no capacity yet exponentially increase value through a feedback look(see automatic control)
X, Y, Z sectors are predominately speculatively based.
Eventually underlying markets win due to the inability of fixed input to sustain a speculative based fixed output. You can 'inject' input to sustain the speculative fixed output (stimulus) but the underlying speculation isn't taken away and the system merely recycles the input and speculation back into itself actually making it worse.

Another way to see it is that its basically a speculative pyramid scheme. Imagine buying a house that took 3 months to build. Asking the next person to pay double for 3 months work. They ask the next person to pay double for 3 months work. and the next and the next. Eventually you require a support base of infinite size and infinite money to support 3 months work. Which is possible, but only if we reproduce infinitely. However population growth is not exponential. Its 1.7%. Nothing can provide infinite population growth, immigration, baby bonus, clones?... Not going to happen.

Maybe china will save us? maybe India will save us. Maybe Africa after that? The only thing for sure is that the nature of the system itself is to tend towards instability.

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