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On China And The End Of The Commodity Super-Cycle; From ZeroHedge
Topic Started: 7 Mar 2012, 11:46 AM (5,084 Views)
davel
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Mike, your point that the US is preparing for a time when China dominates Asia is missing the point... the US will always have an interest in Asia and will always dominate there. (for "always" read 50-100 years).

The US strategic interest in Asia is same as elsewhere in the globe - to prevent any single power dominating the region and using that as a base to challenge US global dominance. It has lots of help in achieving this because Russia and Japan are also major regional powers, and potentially more dangerous in the long-term than China.

China has the potential to create regional trouble of course, but thats about it. It has no real reach and can't even really threaten Russia or Japan. China is in a very weak position geopolitically due to its landmass isolation and its inability to control its own waters.
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miw
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NotFooled
7 May 2012, 10:10 AM
One other scenario that is a favorite of authoritarian ruling elites: foster extreme nationalism and direct hate outwards towards a foreign nation. China plays with this technique sometimes, and could really ramp it up if the CPC feels overly threatened by the people. We could attacks against Japan, Vietnam, or the Philipines beyond the usual "fishing boat" conflicts.
Possible, but highly unlikely in my view. The problem with fostering hate against a particular group of outsiders is that that particlular sword has no hilt. It causes unrest at home and plays into the hands of idealogues. The CCP are pragmatists, not idealogues. They rely on peace for survival. The current leadership were all young adults during the Cultural Revolution. They never want to experience that again. Scratch the surface of the Chinese population and it is very easy to uncover anti-Japanese sentiment. Problem is you get big demos criticising the leadership for being soft on Japan, who are at any given time the largest or second-largest trading partner and vital to prosperity.

Pretty hard to get the Chinese population to care too much about the Philippines or Vietnam. The natural enemies are Japan, Russia and to a lesser extent the USA. Followed by Britain, Germany, Austria, France and Italy.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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newjez
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miw
7 May 2012, 02:31 PM
Possible, but highly unlikely in my view. The problem with fostering hate against a particular group of outsiders is that that particlular sword has no hilt. It causes unrest at home and plays into the hands of idealogues. The CCP are pragmatists, not idealogues. They rely on peace for survival. The current leadership were all young adults during the Cultural Revolution. They never want to experience that again. Scratch the surface of the Chinese population and it is very easy to uncover anti-Japanese sentiment. Problem is you get big demos criticising the leadership for being soft on Japan, who are at any given time the largest or second-largest trading partner and vital to prosperity.

Pretty hard to get the Chinese population to care too much about the Philippines or Vietnam. The natural enemies are Japan, Russia and to a lesser extent the USA. Followed by Britain, Germany, Austria, France and Italy.
India? Plus they have had a few border skirmishes with Vietnam - are these not a useful distraction from time to time?
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miw
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newjez
7 May 2012, 05:04 PM
India? Plus they have had a few border skirmishes with Vietnam - are these not a useful distraction from time to time?
India and Vietnam are holdovers from the ideological days. It would be hard to stir up a lot of popular sentiment against India right now, although that could change I guess. China and India have been doing a lot to strengthen relations lately and work together on global issues. I'd call it coopetition.

Vietnam is a mini China these days, run by a bunch of pragmatic "Honest Businessmen". Honestly you can understand a lot about the governance of China and Vietnam by watching the Sopranos. They don't like things that are bad for business, and unrest is really bad for business.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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newjez
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It's funny - but I was having doubts - maybe I was on track all along

China trade data casts doubt on rebound

China's headline growth in imports unexpectedly stalled in April and exports were weaker-than-expected, raising doubts about the strength of the rebound in the world's second-biggest economy.

The trade data on Thursday was the first of a flurry of economic indicators to be released this week - inflation, producer prices, industrial output, fixed asset investment and retail sales are all due on Friday - which had been expected to show a month-on-month improvement in both foreign and domestic demand.

"Both export and import figures gave the market a downside surprise," said Jiang Chao, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, in Shanghai. "We had expected China's export growth to reach a trough by the end of the second quarter, but now I think we will have to revise down our trade forecast for the full year."

Annual growth in imports last month was just 0.3 per cent, far below expectations for an 11 per cent increase in a Reuters poll and also weaker than the 5.3 per cent year-on-year rise in March. However, the slowdown in headline imports was magnified by a sharp fall in commodities prices in the past year.

Exports were also softer than expected, growing by 4.9 per cent in April from a year earlier, compared with a forecast of 8.5 per cent and March's rise of 8.9 per cent.

That left the country with a trade surplus of $US18.4 billion in April, compared with a forecast of $US8.5 billion and March's $US5.35 billion. Commerce Minister Chen Deming said last week that the April trade surplus would be around $US10 billion.

Trade figures from the second quarter tend to give a clearer picture of the emerging trend for the year, given the volatility in first-quarter numbers distorted annually by shifts in the Lunar New Year holidays.

Asian shares fell after the data and the Australian dollar, sensitive to expected demand from the biggest market for the country's commodities, pared gains made after strong local jobs data.

Hurt by a recession in Europe and a patchy economic recovery in the United States - China's two biggest trading partners -export growth has slumped to single-digit levels this year, a long way from growth of more than 20 per cent seen in 2010.

To cope with the slowdown, China has tilted policy away from containing inflation and towards supporting growth. Beijing has been aiming for its total trade to grow at an average annual pace of 10 per cent in the years between 2011 and 2015.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/china-trade-data-casts-doubt-on-rebound-20120510-1yemo.html
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newjez
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The price of cabbage doubled last month in China, and is up 1000% for the year.

But inflation is still running at about 5%.

You work that one out.
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China's economic miracle a mirage for workers in unsafe coalmines

Philip Wen
May 12, 2012

He Hua emerges from his makeshift mine shaft, every inch of his body as black as the haul of coal he lugs behind him. Having woken before dawn, he has hiked nearly two hours through mountainous terrain to get to the coalface where his daily grind begins.

Like many of the illegal coalmines that are scattered across the country, these operations in Zhaoyang - officially one of the poorest districts in China - are unregulated and run by unscrupulous bosses who pay a pittance for the coal a small army of desperate miners scrapes together, usually in appalling safety conditions.

The tunnels are haphazardly reinforced with wooden planks by the miners. Few wear helmets, masks or safety gloves.

Government safety officials come weekly like clockwork, armed with explosives to seal off the entrances to the mines, fining any miners who are caught.

But it is little more than a charade; a snapshot of petty corruption in a far-flung pocket of China. In exchange for cash, officials tip the miners off before their visits. The feebly blocked entrances are then cleared by miners in a couple of days.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/chinas-economic-miracle-a-mirage-for-workers-in-unsafe-coalmines-20120511-1yi2k.html#ixzz1ubFBQHPt
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