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Real After Tax Term Deposit Returns for Australian Savers are Negative; Savers Punished. Debtors Rewarded. Tax and Inflation Work for Borrowers and Against Savers.
Topic Started: 6 Mar 2012, 11:00 AM (20,815 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
22 Mar 2012, 11:01 PM
if I wanted to nit-pick, I would say they peaked @ 4.5% as opposed to 5%..
I said vacancy rates were close to 5%... from memory I think the exact figure was around 4.7.

Quote:
 
Also, they had already come down a long way in late 2005 (when you bought)
And so had prices, especially Northern Beaches prices, which is why I bought then.

Quote:
 
many bulls (including yourself) have mocked bears for claiming that large price rises were a sign of prices not being sustainable.
In 2003 the property bulls of Sydney would have cited you a mad bear for thinking prices would not continue upwards...

Do you not see the irony of this last fact ?
No. I was bearish about Sydney property in 2003. A few years later the fundamentals changed and I became bullish.

In the future, if prices rise by 60% over a three year period and vacancy rates jump back to 5% I'll probably be bearish again. I don't see any irony there.

I haven't mocked any bears for claiming that a 60% price rise in three years along with 5% vacancy rates is a sign of prices not being sustainable.

Quote:
 
From 2000 to 2004, vacancy rates shot up to your historic 4.5%... yet prices also rose another 50%.

This does not make sense if your theory is correct
What theory?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
22 Mar 2012, 11:31 PM

Quote:
 
I said vacancy rates were close to 5%... I think the exact figure was around 4.7.

Not according to the ANZ and REIA chart I posted.... they were prob. a little lower than 4.5.
Perhaps they are wrong... can you post another source ?


The irony is that you only used two variables to make your mind up... one of them was previous years of strong growth... the very thing that many bulls use to show prices will continue to follow their trend up.




Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
22 Mar 2012, 11:45 PM
Not according to the ANZ and REIA chart I posted.... they were prob. a little lower than 4.5.
Perhaps they are wrong... can you post another source ?
Posted Image

Quote:
 
The irony is that you only used two variables to make your mind up... one of them was previous years of strong growth... the very thing that many bulls use to show prices will continue to follow their trend up.
Can you link to some posts where bulls used that rate of strong growth alone to show prices will continue to follow their trend up?

I don't recall the posts you're referring to... in fact, I think you made it up...
Edited by Shadow, 22 Mar 2012, 11:54 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
22 Mar 2012, 11:52 PM
Posted Image


Can you link to a post where a bull used that level of strong growth alone to show prices will continue to follow their trend up?

I don't recall the posts you're referring to... I think you made it up...
Nice picture... does it have a source ?

Mine had ANZ and REIA.


I think, from memory, the line ran more like.

bear would post that prices had risen so strongly that they were going to peak..

Bull would post that rising prices are going to continue.


No specific post to quote... It just seemed to be the consensus of a lot of bulls that a trend up showed prices were strong and still getting stronger... I'm happy to see that the trend is not automatically assumed to continue these days ....

I wonder if this is because the trend has not been kind of late...

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
22 Mar 2012, 11:58 PM
I think, from memory, the line ran more like.

bear would post that prices had risen so strongly that they were going to peak..

Bull would post that rising prices are going to continue.

No specific post to quote... It just seemed to be the consensus of a lot of bulls that a trend up showed prices were strong and still getting stronger
In other words, you just made it up.

And your made up example has no relationship to my reasoning for why I thought Sydney prices had peaked in 2003.

So there was nothing 'ironic' about my reasoning at all...
Edited by Shadow, 23 Mar 2012, 12:04 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
23 Mar 2012, 12:01 AM
In other words, you just made it up.

And your made up example has no relationship to my reasoning for why I thought Sydney prices had peaked in 2003.

So there was nothing 'ironic' about my reasoning at all...
no,
in other words, I can't be bothered finding a post that shows someone saying the trend is up and it will continue.

If you want to state that it has never been said, then fine... you can believe that.
I suspect others will remember it even if you don't...
Oddly enough, there is less posting of this since the trend has stopped being up. :rolleyes:

Quote:
 

there was nothing 'ironic' about my reasoning at all...

The irony is that you can not see it... don't worry about it.


btw... did you have a source for that chart ? or did you just make it up ?
You seemed to completely forget to mention it.
Edited by Rastus2, 23 Mar 2012, 12:41 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Mr Griffin
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Shadow
7 Mar 2012, 08:55 AM
When we bought our first PPOR in 2005, we had saved a deposit of several hundred thousand dollars (around 40% of the property value).

My current PPOR is pretty much paid off. I have higher LVR loans on IPs, but nowhere near 100% of the value of those properties.

Overall, across my all my properties my LVR is pretty low for several reasons...

1... Large deposit to begin with
2... Paying off various loans over the past seven years using relatively high dual incomes
3... Sydney house prices have risen quite a bit since I started buying in 2005

I'm a long way from negative equity. It would require almost a 40% fall in prices.
Well if you've got a low LVR and we're around the bottom of one of these usual downturns.

Surely you'll be buying another IP?
Edited by Mr Griffin, 23 Mar 2012, 01:38 PM.
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Rastus2
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Rastus2
22 Mar 2012, 11:58 PM
Nice picture... does it have a source ?

Mine had ANZ and REIA.




still waiting Shadow...

Posted Image

Do you have a source for that picture ?

Mine was ANZ and REIA.

If not, lets just agree that ANZ and REIA were correct... Vacancy rates peaked just below 4.5% in Sydney
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
23 Mar 2012, 02:13 PM
still waiting Shadow...

Posted Image

Do you have a source for that picture ?

Mine was ANZ and REIA.

If not, lets just agree that ANZ and REIA were correct... Vacancy rates peaked just below 4.5% in Sydney
It's been in my photobucket account since 2007... I originally posted it on GHPC, and I think it came from a government website, but can't find it any more.

It was a long time ago. You can call it 4.5% if you want... that's fine... I'm not going to quibble over 0.2%.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
23 Mar 2012, 02:52 PM
It's been in my photobucket account since 2007... I originally posted it on GHPC, and I think it came from a government website, but can't find it any more.

It was a long time ago. You can call it 4.5% if you want... that's fine... I'm not going to quibble over 0.2%.
well it started as you saying 'about 5%', then was 4.7, but now lets call it 4.5% since you suddenly can not find any source for the chart you have used since 2007. That's 'about' 10% reduction just from a discussion over a couple of days.


Anyway I assume that if there is a lot of construction about to happen (as you keep citing), the vacancy rate may indeed rise somewhat..

At what % will you start to consider that the upward pressure on prices means they can stop rising ? (surely you will not hold out for another 4.5% before considering this possible).

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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