Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 7
Australian Finance Group (AFG) March Report - Best February Ever on Record; And RateCity says 69% of home loans offer LVR 95% or higher in 2012
Topic Started: 1 Mar 2012, 02:33 PM (6,066 Views)
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Yossarian
15 May 2012, 03:04 PM
peter fraser
14 May 2012, 09:19 PM
Thanks Yossarian,

I'm actually sorry that I won't be going to LA - I think that I would have enjoyed a chat with you, and maybe a glass of vino. Clearly you have close ties with a 3rd party channel of some size.

I'm amazed that I haven't seen a reaction to the latest rate reduction as yet. What are you seeing?

A drink would be good but then I'd have to out myself which would limit the fun. :oo:

We're not seeing a big reaction to the latest rate cut nor did I expect much. Although refi activity will pick up as lenders track the swap rates down for a while and fixed rates get sexier in relative terms, I've held the view since '08 that people have simply changed their attitude to indebtedness.

Deleveraging continues and each rate reduction is as likely to be reflected in increases in offset balances as in increased borrowing. The pavlovian response isn't what it was IMHO.

It's trite but I see the current level of lending growth as the new normal and a Good Thing.

I've banged on about it for ages but business models and investment strategies predicated on the credit environment - in terms of both both appetite and availability - that existed between about 1990 and 2007 need to adjust.
It's unlikely that we will ever see such a prolonged run up in lending again. Starting from a base that was much smaller and conservative by global standards (USA) we eventually took to it like addicts, so I agree more conservative borrowers and lenders is a good thing, but a sudden hard tightening would send the economy into a deep recession.

After seeing some jump after the November rate cut followed by the December cut I was expecting more, but as lefty said above people don't have faith in lenders to pass it on anymore. Are the banks concerned about holding onto deposits? That could explain it.

The highish interest rates in 08 scared a lot of people. Rate times debt is what counts rather than the rate itself.

I see plenty of refi's to clear and cancel credit cards - are the levels of revolving credit falling? I see people with 8 cards or more. I know that they have hidden information from lenders to get that many cards, so when will they bring in the changes to credit reporting to stop that?



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Yossarian
Default APF Avatar

peter fraser
15 May 2012, 05:42 PM
It's unlikely that we will ever see such a prolonged run up in lending again. Starting from a base that was much smaller and conservative by global standards (USA) we eventually took to it like addicts, so I agree more conservative borrowers and lenders is a good thing, but a sudden hard tightening would send the economy into a deep recession.

After seeing some jump after the November rate cut followed by the December cut I was expecting more, but as lefty said above people don't have faith in lenders to pass it on anymore. Are the banks concerned about holding onto deposits? That could explain it.

The highish interest rates in 08 scared a lot of people. Rate times debt is what counts rather than the rate itself.

I see plenty of refi's to clear and cancel credit cards - are the levels of revolving credit falling? I see people with 8 cards or more. I know that they have hidden information from lenders to get that many cards, so when will they bring in the changes to credit reporting to stop that?
I think the introduction of positive credit reporting is going to be huge and I'm not sure people understand the implications.

Currently, lenders have a huge degree of reliance on the assets and liabilities as disclosed by borrowers. One wonders how many borrowers currently obtaining finance would receive the same (or any) terms if the lender had full visibility of their accounts, the actual balances and recent payment history.

Not suggesting that people fudge their position or anything.....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Yossarian
15 May 2012, 06:14 PM
peter fraser
15 May 2012, 05:42 PM
It's unlikely that we will ever see such a prolonged run up in lending again. Starting from a base that was much smaller and conservative by global standards (USA) we eventually took to it like addicts, so I agree more conservative borrowers and lenders is a good thing, but a sudden hard tightening would send the economy into a deep recession.

After seeing some jump after the November rate cut followed by the December cut I was expecting more, but as lefty said above people don't have faith in lenders to pass it on anymore. Are the banks concerned about holding onto deposits? That could explain it.

The highish interest rates in 08 scared a lot of people. Rate times debt is what counts rather than the rate itself.

I see plenty of refi's to clear and cancel credit cards - are the levels of revolving credit falling? I see people with 8 cards or more. I know that they have hidden information from lenders to get that many cards, so when will they bring in the changes to credit reporting to stop that?
I think the introduction of positive credit reporting is going to be huge and I'm not sure people understand the implications.

Currently, lenders have a huge degree of reliance on the assets and liabilities as disclosed by borrowers. One wonders how many borrowers currently obtaining finance would receive the same (or any) terms if the lender had full visibility of their accounts, the actual balances and recent payment history.

Not suggesting that people fudge their position or anything.....
Not suggesting that people fudge their position or anything.....

lol - We both know that there is a percentage out there who deliberately withhold information on their liabilities. They are credit junkies, and they are just as cunning as any other type of addict.

Usually it can be picked up in their statements, but not always. Those who know how to game the system are good at it. Fraudulent pay slips, PAYG Summaries, bank statements - it can look very very good.

It's going to hit some people like a sledgehammer between the eyes - but when?

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


TED BULLPIT
15 May 2012, 03:22 PM
Great thread Mr Fraser , thats all I'll say in my mellow state :D

I heard ther day that investment borrowing for housing was down 2.0% for March and then the following day hear it is only 1% , can you confirm this Mr Fraser.
If anything dramatic happens in the next 10 days, I am going to establish another leading indicator called "Ted Gets Mellow".

The question remains - is it a bullish or bearish leading indicator?
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


miw
15 May 2012, 08:54 PM
TED BULLPIT
15 May 2012, 03:22 PM
Great thread Mr Fraser , thats all I'll say in my mellow state :D

I heard ther day that investment borrowing for housing was down 2.0% for March and then the following day hear it is only 1% , can you confirm this Mr Fraser.
If anything dramatic happens in the next 10 days, I am going to establish another leading indicator called "Ted Gets Mellow".

The question remains - is it a bullish or bearish leading indicator?
I think that the "Mellow Ted Index" is more closely related to social unrest than finance. The more mellow Ted becomes the more they riot in Greece and other unhinging countries.

I can give you the formulae for the "Peter Fraser Personal Wealth Index" if you're interested, but it is patented - I can arrange a licence.



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


peter fraser
15 May 2012, 09:19 PM
I think that the "Mellow Ted Index" is more closely related to social unrest than finance. The more mellow Ted becomes the more they riot in Greece and other unhinging countries.




Sort of a "conservation of unrest" law then.
Quote:
 

I can give you the formulae for the "Peter Fraser Personal Wealth Index" if you're interested, but it is patented - I can arrange a licence.


Sounds like a good lurk.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
raveswei
Default APF Avatar


peter fraser
15 May 2012, 09:19 PM
I can give you the formulae for the "Peter Fraser Personal Wealth Index" if you're interested, but it is patented - I can arrange a licence.


is that paper property wealth index, like the one that ranked Irish people second richest in the world just few years ago?
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


raveswei
15 May 2012, 10:43 PM
peter fraser
15 May 2012, 09:19 PM
I can give you the formulae for the "Peter Fraser Personal Wealth Index" if you're interested, but it is patented - I can arrange a licence.


is that paper property wealth index, like the one that ranked Irish people second richest in the world just few years ago?
Lol - no it is individual wealth - just a little joke of mine really. The index formulae is:-

Index = (girth in cm) X (number of bottles in your wine cellar) X (average cost per bottle)

It can be a volatile index, it's the long term trend that is important.



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


peter fraser
15 May 2012, 10:51 PM
Lol - no it is individual wealth - just a little joke of mine really. The index formulae is:-

Index = (girth in cm) X (number of bottles in your wine cellar) X (average cost per bottle)

It can be a volatile index, it's the long term trend that is important.


Hmm. You would need to be careful you didn't get pirates ripping off your intellectual property by going through the garbage and reading the labels and publishing a synthetic PFPWI.

There was a real trader in the US (at least according to a book I read) who made his own index of the number of dental surgerical procedures performed on dogs to estimate "perceived disposable income". I think the PFPWI is closer to real data than that one, and it is even inflation-adjusted!
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


miw
15 May 2012, 11:04 PM
peter fraser
15 May 2012, 10:51 PM
Lol - no it is individual wealth - just a little joke of mine really. The index formulae is:-

Index = (girth in cm) X (number of bottles in your wine cellar) X (average cost per bottle)

It can be a volatile index, it's the long term trend that is important.


Hmm. You would need to be careful you didn't get pirates ripping off your intellectual property by going through the garbage and reading the labels and publishing a synthetic PFPWI.

There was a real trader in the US (at least according to a book I read) who made his own index of the number of dental surgerical procedures performed on dogs to estimate "perceived disposable income". I think the PFPWI is closer to real data than that one, and it is even inflation-adjusted!
It is indeed inflation adjusted, but a couple of Big Dads pies and washed down with some Clean Skins can throw it into real spin and deliver some quite false data.

I'm working on some adjustments at this very moment.



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 7



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy