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Australian Finance Group (AFG) March Report - Best February Ever on Record; And RateCity says 69% of home loans offer LVR 95% or higher in 2012
Topic Started: 1 Mar 2012, 02:33 PM (6,068 Views)
Yossarian
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peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 06:54 PM
What you should have said was:-

"In February, AFG has a good month.

The banks did not"

Yes there probably was some divergence from normal because the banks lost a lot of support by putting up their rates, and the general public voiced their opinions by walking over to brokers for their finance - it happens - get over it...

Phone the head of your third party channel and ask them if they were busy in February - don't take my word for it. How did your wholesale channel go in February?

Everyone from Rismark to Macrobusiness looks at the AFG figures for a jump on the market. Go to MB and look at Delusional Economics graphs and Nathan Webbs graphs, to get the best correlation they allow a months difference.

Clearly there is a slight difference between the method and timing of the data collection, but as I said earlier frankly I don't care what that difference is, it's enough to know that it exists and I'm happy to allow for it.

Why don't you phone AFG at Perth and discuss it with them. The phone number was on their press release, but if it isn't then I can get it for you.

Cheers...



I've got a fair idea why AFG had a decent February as I had a decent lunch with the MD in March.

They unquestionably beat the market and I suspect will continue to do so.

If you make it to LA we can talk about it further then.
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peter fraser
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Yossarian
11 Apr 2012, 07:09 PM
I've got a fair idea why AFG had a decent February as I had a decent lunch with the MD in March.

They unquestionably beat the market and I suspect will continue to do so.

If you make it to LA we can talk about it further then.
I have no problem accepting that AFG beat the market, but why would they beat the market by that much?

They don't even advertise????

Now they may have recruited more brokers, and the banks may have been down quite a bit, but none of that adds up to what you claim.

If you are correct then I will have a lot of humble pie to eat, but I am unconvinced at this point.

You won't see me in LA.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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raveswei
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peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 03:16 PM
Yossarian - the AFG figures are for approvals, which won't be reconciled by the ABS data until March and even April figures for funding commitments are released.

The datasets are not concurrent.


If your theory is correct dad ABS results for February must have followed bad AFG results in month or two or few months before February. Correct?

But there was no bad AFG month recently according to AFG data

Posted Image

why you don't rethink possibility that even small change in AFG market share can make their data useless for general market predictions.

As we all know people don't like what big banks did recently with rate movements - people seek alternatives so AFG market share went up.
- even AFG claims that. http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/mortgages/mortgage-sales-up-40-in-january-year-on-year-afg

just small increase in their market share (e.g. by one percent of total market) could increase number of mortgages by 5% or 10%
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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peter fraser
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raveswei
11 Apr 2012, 08:42 PM
peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 03:16 PM
Yossarian - the AFG figures are for approvals, which won't be reconciled by the ABS data until March and even April figures for funding commitments are released.

The datasets are not concurrent.


If your theory is correct dad ABS results for February must have followed bad AFG results in month or two or few months before February. Correct?

But there was no bad AFG month recently according to AFG data

Posted Image

why you don't rethink possibility that even small change in AFG market share can make their data useless for general market predictions.

As we all know people don't like what big banks did recently with rate movements - people seek alternatives so AFG market share went up.
- even AFG claims that. http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/mortgages/mortgage-sales-up-40-in-january-year-on-year-afg

just small increase in their market share (e.g. by one percent of total market) could increase number of mortgages by 5% or 10%
No rav, it's my view that the December 2011 data will roughly align with the January 2012 ABS data, and the January 2012 AFG data will align with the February 2012 ABS data, and both of those months showed a month on month decline, as did the ABS data. The AFG data is not seasonally adjusted.

We will have to await the March ABS data to show the AFG February upswing.

I'm happy to consider any rational theory rav, but you will have to provide some more evidence.

Edit - rav you said "If your theory is correct dad"

That threw me rav - it's possible I suppose - can I ask what your mums maiden name was???

Cheers - son?


Edited by peter fraser, 11 Apr 2012, 09:22 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Yossarian
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peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 09:18 PM
raveswei
11 Apr 2012, 08:42 PM
peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 03:16 PM
Yossarian - the AFG figures are for approvals, which won't be reconciled by the ABS data until March and even April figures for funding commitments are released.

The datasets are not concurrent.


If your theory is correct dad ABS results for February must have followed bad AFG results in month or two or few months before February. Correct?

But there was no bad AFG month recently according to AFG data

Posted Image

why you don't rethink possibility that even small change in AFG market share can make their data useless for general market predictions.

As we all know people don't like what big banks did recently with rate movements - people seek alternatives so AFG market share went up.
- even AFG claims that. http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/mortgages/mortgage-sales-up-40-in-january-year-on-year-afg

just small increase in their market share (e.g. by one percent of total market) could increase number of mortgages by 5% or 10%
No rav, it's my view that the December 2011 data will roughly align with the January 2012 ABS data, and the January 2012 AFG data will align with the February 2012 ABS data, and both of those months showed a month on month decline, as did the ABS data. The AFG data is not seasonally adjusted.

We will have to await the March ABS data to show the AFG February upswing.

I'm happy to consider any rational theory rav, but you will have to provide some more evidence.

Edit - rav you said "If your theory is correct dad"

That threw me rav - it's possible I suppose - can I ask what your mums maiden name was???

Cheers - son?


ABS figures for March are out.

Down .2% actual on the February numbers, .5% seasonally adjusted.
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Lefty
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Looks like Yossarian got it right.
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WestAussie
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apex
1 Mar 2012, 05:12 PM

So the lenders relax credit and dive back into risky pre-GFC lending habits in their desperation to pump up the bubble, and not surprisingly the result is a huge surge in mortgage numbers. No subprime here folks, what could possibly go wrong? :blink:
Australia is different! We have population growth and jobs and lots of people and houses. And there's supply and demand that works to make it more expensive. We have a housing shortage because every time I walk down the street I see people who work but don't have a home because they are waiting for it to be built that's demand not because they can't afford them. And um, china, there's china, and regulation. We have regulation of sunshine which has energy that gets made into electricity and we pay money for electricity so we have lots. And china has people too so they want to live here and to buy our resources and use those resources to build more houses what generates supply and people then have houses to have more kids and that's what gives us population growth! Did I cover it all? I think I did. You are wrong. We are in an upswing boom tick that will go up because my dad bought a house that is worth more. So now I will do it too and make money lots of money for just buying a house.

(I hope they bought that and I can sell off all my speculative investment houses fast to some chump who is stupid enough to take out a 95% LVR and borrow 8x both their incomes to buy that POS plasterboad 2 room junk piles I'm sitting on then I can buy a bunch of those new ones 60 min out and just repeat the cycle again after the crash. Score easy money)
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peter fraser
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Yossarian
14 May 2012, 02:11 PM
ABS figures for March are out.

Down .2% actual on the February numbers, .5% seasonally adjusted.
Yes it looks as though you are correct.

How would you like me to consume that humble pie - orally or otherwise.

That seems like a large deviation - has AFG taken over another large group, or have they won over large numbers from various smaller groups. What did Hewy tell you?

Nathan Webb over at Macro has been graphing the AFG index for some time, and it has until now been reasonably reliable - Link to Nathan's Graphs.

So something must have changed to upset that balance. This isn't just slow progressive market share growth, this must be a large change in numbers to get this error.

Anyway the upshot of all of that is that I owe you an apology.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Lefty
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Peter, you are more gracious in defeat than almost anyone I have come across.

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miw
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Lefty
14 May 2012, 07:22 PM
Peter, you are more gracious in defeat than almost anyone I have come across.

A true gentleman, and always worth reading.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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