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Australian Finance Group (AFG) March Report - Best February Ever on Record; And RateCity says 69% of home loans offer LVR 95% or higher in 2012
Topic Started: 1 Mar 2012, 02:33 PM (6,069 Views)
Yossarian
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Worth remembering that as an aggregator, AFG is a collector of brokers rather than a broker itself.

As a consequence, their monthly figures can be significantly impacted by the loss or gain of members.

Of late, they they've seen a fair bit of the latter.

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Yossarian
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Yossarian
4 Mar 2012, 07:57 PM
Worth remembering that as an aggregator, AFG is a collector of brokers rather than a broker itself.

As a consequence, their monthly figures can be significantly impacted by the loss or gain of members.

Of late, they they've seen a fair bit of the latter.

As suggested, the AFG numbers represented a shift in AFG's performance rather than a structural move of the market

5609.0 Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2012

February 2012 compared with January 2012:

  • The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.1%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.4%, while owner occupied housing commitments was flat (0.0%).

  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.3%.

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peter fraser
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Yossarian
11 Apr 2012, 02:20 PM
Yossarian
4 Mar 2012, 07:57 PM
Worth remembering that as an aggregator, AFG is a collector of brokers rather than a broker itself.

As a consequence, their monthly figures can be significantly impacted by the loss or gain of members.

Of late, they they've seen a fair bit of the latter.

As suggested, the AFG numbers represented a shift in AFG's performance rather than a structural move of the market

5609.0 Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2012

February 2012 compared with January 2012:

  • The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.1%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.4%, while owner occupied housing commitments was flat (0.0%).

  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.3%.

Yossarian - the AFG figures are for approvals, which won't be reconciled by the ABS data until March and even April figures for funding commitments are released.

The datasets are not concurrent.



Edited by peter fraser, 11 Apr 2012, 03:18 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Yossarian
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peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 03:16 PM
Yossarian
11 Apr 2012, 02:20 PM
Yossarian
4 Mar 2012, 07:57 PM
Worth remembering that as an aggregator, AFG is a collector of brokers rather than a broker itself.

As a consequence, their monthly figures can be significantly impacted by the loss or gain of members.

Of late, they they've seen a fair bit of the latter.

As suggested, the AFG numbers represented a shift in AFG's performance rather than a structural move of the market

5609.0 Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2012

February 2012 compared with January 2012:

  • The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.1%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.4%, while owner occupied housing commitments was flat (0.0%).

  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.3%.

Yossarian - the AFG figures are for approvals, which won't be reconciled by the ABS data until March and even April figures for funding commitments are released.

The datasets are not concurrent.



Not so much.

Commitments = Formal Approvals.



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peter fraser
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Yossarian
11 Apr 2012, 05:52 PM
Not so much.

Commitments = Formal Approvals.



Sorry mate, you are wrong. Allow a one month delay at least.
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Yossarian
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peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 06:06 PM
Yossarian
11 Apr 2012, 05:52 PM
Not so much.

Commitments = Formal Approvals.



Sorry mate, you are wrong. Allow a one month delay at least.
Nope.

A "commitment" is a firm offer to provide finance which has been accepted by the client. A commitment exists once the home loan application has been approved and a loan contract or letter of offer has been issued to the borrower.
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peter fraser
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Yossarian
11 Apr 2012, 06:22 PM
Nope.

A "commitment" is a firm offer to provide finance which has been accepted by the client. A commitment exists once the home loan application has been approved and a loan contract or letter of offer has been issued to the borrower.
That is how it should be, but it isn't so - there has always been a delay between the AFG trend and the ABS trend.

But if you don't believe me then fine, just at this moment I really don't care.

Cheers...

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Yossarian
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peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 06:26 PM
That is how it should be, but it isn't so - there has always been a delay between the AFG trend and the ABS trend.

But if you don't believe me then fine, just at this moment I really don't care.

Cheers...

It's not how it should be.

It's an APRA requirement so it's how it is.

At the end of month, we and all the other ADI's send a bunch of spreadsheets to APRA.

One of those is the value of all the formal approvals issued during the month.

APRA are even helpful enough to provide guides for the completion of said forms including Reporting Form ARF 392.0 - Housing Finance .

Meanwhile, over at AFG at the end of the month, Hewy and the boys pull out all the approvals that have gone through their CRM and put them out as the AFG Index.

Because the AFG numbers reflect both the market and the relative success of AFG in doing it's thing in the market, it is a mistake to assume movements in the AFG numbers reflect movement in the market.

In February, AFG has a good month.

The market did not.
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peter fraser
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Yossarian
11 Apr 2012, 06:39 PM
It's not how it should be.

It's an APRA requirement so it's how it is.

At the end of month, we and all the other ADI's send a bunch of spreadsheets to APRA.

One of those is the value of all the formal approvals issued during the month.

APRA are even helpful enough to provide guides for the completion of said forms including Reporting Form ARF 392.0 - Housing Finance .

Meanwhile, over at AFG at the end of the month, Hewy and the boys pull out all the approvals that have gone through their CRM and put them out as the AFG Index.

Because the AFG numbers reflect both the market and the relative success of AFG in doing it's thing in the market, it is a mistake to assume movements in the AFG numbers reflect movement in the market.

In February, AFG has a good month.

The market did not.
What you should have said was:-

"In February, AFG has a good month.

The banks did not"

Yes there probably was some divergence from normal because the banks lost a lot of support by putting up their rates, and the general public voiced their opinions by walking over to brokers for their finance - it happens - get over it...

Phone the head of your third party channel and ask them if they were busy in February - don't take my word for it. How did your wholesale channel go in February?

Everyone from Rismark to Macrobusiness looks at the AFG figures for a jump on the market. Go to MB and look at Delusional Economics graphs and Nathan Webbs graphs, to get the best correlation they allow a months difference.

Clearly there is a slight difference between the method and timing of the data collection, but as I said earlier frankly I don't care what that difference is, it's enough to know that it exists and I'm happy to allow for it.

Why don't you phone AFG at Perth and discuss it with them. The phone number was on their press release, but if it isn't then I can get it for you.

Cheers...



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Catweasel
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peter fraser
11 Apr 2012, 06:54 PM
What you should have said was:-

"In February, AFG has a good month.

The banks did not"

Yes there probably was some divergence from normal because the banks lost a lot of support by putting up their rates, and the general public voiced their opinions by walking over to brokers for their finance - it happens - get over it...

Phone the head of your third party channel and ask them if they were busy in February - don't take my word for it. How did your wholesale channel go in February?

Everyone from Rismark to Macrobusiness looks at the AFG figures for a jump on the market. Go to MB and look at Delusional Economics graphs and Nathan Webbs graphs, to get the best correlation they allow a months difference.

Clearly there is a slight difference between the method and timing of the data collection, but as I said earlier frankly I don't care what that difference is, it's enough to know that it exists and I'm happy to allow for it.

Why don't you phone AFG at Perth and discuss it with them. The phone number was on their press release, but if it isn't then I can get it for you.

Cheers...



Catweasel laugh. Why not choose a data set that best support its narrative? Surely that's what its master would do.
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