But still if I was 25 - 35 and wanting to buy my first house, then I would begrudgingly want the truth no matter how much it was at odds to my cause. What possible good can incorrect data or opinions be? How would they help me make the best possible decision for me and my family?
Catweasel say it can give mouse mountain of data, but it totally irrelevant to make of good decision.
Most data use to deceive mouse, not help it make informed decision.
But still if I was 25 - 35 and wanting to buy my first house, then I would begrudgingly want the truth no matter how much it was at odds to my cause. What possible good can incorrect data or opinions be? How would they help me make the best possible decision for me and my family?
Catweasel say it can give mouse mountain of data, but it totally irrelevant to make of good decision.
Most data use to deceive mouse, not help it make informed decision.
Then your point is therefore we should give them NO data because data only confuses them.
How would that help, and is it what they really want?
Or is it just homeless old wizards who don't want confusing data?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Then your point is therefore we should give them NO data because data only confuses them.
How would that help, and is it what they really want?
Or is it just homeless old wizards who don't want confusing data?
Catweasel say even the better solution is teach a mouse how to understand limitation of a data and how to understand a number. But it not a going to happen in current education system. Too the many have its life based around enslaving mouse based on myth supposedly support by a data.
Then your point is therefore we should give them NO data because data only confuses them.
How would that help, and is it what they really want?
Or is it just homeless old wizards who don't want confusing data?
Catweasel say even the better solution is teach a mouse how to understand limitation of a data and how to understand a number. But it not a going to happen in current education system. Too the many have its life based around enslaving mouse based on myth supposedly support by a data.
I don't disagree, but mouse can read, mouse can learn.
Not every mouse here is stupid. Some of them are very good at smelling rats.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
I don't disagree, but mouse can read, mouse can learn.
Not every mouse here is stupid. Some of them are very good at smelling rats.
Catweasel say it must not confuse stupidity with a socialization, indoctrination, and a emotion-based behavior.
absolutely not, we wouldn't want any of that would we.
When do your lessons start cat, I'm ready to attend classes if your willing to teach. After all you travel Japan and SE Asia as a risk analyst and clearly you have some experience in this, especially in currency trade. So please trot out the beloved Taleb books and begin the lesson.
Do I have time to mow the front lawn first?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
absolutely not, we wouldn't want any of that would we.
When do your lessons start cat, I'm ready to attend classes if your willing to teach. After all you travel Japan and SE Asia as a risk analyst and clearly you have some experience in this, especially in currency trade. So please trot out the beloved Taleb books and begin the lesson.
Do I have time to mow the front lawn first?
Catweasel laugh. It need to take responsibility for itself and decide what the kind of existence it want. Best teacher for a Catweasel is a darling Mrs Catweasel, who as sharp as it come. Big the difference is a Mrs Catweasel not tolerate intellect arrogant (in the Chris Joye way) and will lock a horns with a best of them.
Yes I have been spending a bit of time at MB and it's probably time to leave them alone for a while. I don't have an axe to grind with them, and I actually have a lot of respect for DE. So I'll try to move on from that topic. After all we all have our own bias and we all make mistakes, or perhaps colour our headlines - whatever. But I was a little disappointed in the "not so hot" call in the headline, I think it misrepresented the data completely. These numbers are indeed hot.
Yes even in the "slow melt" scenario some months might show a positive result, so you are quite correct.
The FHB numbers have been growing steadily for some time now.
Now to get that into perspective, the numbers are just nothing like the heady period in 2009 when FHB numbers hit 2000 to 2500 per month, so it's just NOT a boom, but the numbers have been increasing since January 2010 when it hit a low, well before most commentators realised that the boom had faded.
But, tell me what you think of that information and the graph. If you have another theory then I'll be pleased to hear it.
On your point about the bear posters - I do appreciate that point. I do try not to needlessly make insensitive points when I know that emotions run high on these issues. I let a lot of shots at me go past without retaliating even when those shots are often trite and lack substance.
But you will understand that being diplomatic is not always easy when the issue is unpalatable - some things just have to be said, and perhaps I could do better at times with my wording and language.
But still if I was 25 - 35 and wanting to buy my first house, then I would begrudgingly want the truth no matter how much it was at odds to my cause. What possible good can incorrect data or opinions be? How would they help me make the best possible decision for me and my family?
Hi Peter.
I'll examine your graph tomorrow when I'm more clear headed - it's Friday evening and I'm on my third wine (third glass, not third bottle!).
Quote:
On your point about the bear posters - I do appreciate that point. I do try not to needlessly make insensitive points when I know that emotions run high on these issues. I let a lot of shots at me go past without retaliating even when those shots are often trite and lack substance.
Indeed you do and I respect that. We've exchanged correspondence for a couple of years now on this and other forums and in all that time, I've never seen any unwarrented insults, trash talk or emotional outbursts from you. You have a calm, rational approach which is all the more admirable seeing as you earn your living in a sector which is embroiled in some amount of controversy in some parts of the blogosphere and which has not been travelling all that well for some time. You're probably the most gentlemanly poster I've come across, and I do mean that sincerely.
Anyway, enjoy your Friday evening Peter - I think I might polish off the last of that bottle.
Two things are clear from your graph Peter. One is the huge surge courtesy of the GFC-inspired FHBers boost delivered by government to stave off recession. The other is the steadily rising trend in FHBer numbers over the past 2 years.
Do you have all of AFG's archives? I had them going back to the late 1990's I think but I have lost them and only the more current ones seem to be on the AFG website.
Do you have all of AFG's archives? I had them going back to the late 1990's I think but I have lost them and only the more current ones seem to be on the AFG website.
cheers
Probably not lefty, but I might have enough to cover them. AFG redesigned their website and left off the old reports.
I did transpose all of the national figures onto an excel spreadsheet and I'll be happy to post that if no one has the reports. There are some other posters who have been recording the results and graphing the changes, so perhaps we might just have them all somewhere.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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