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Australian Finance Group (AFG) March Report - Best February Ever on Record; And RateCity says 69% of home loans offer LVR 95% or higher in 2012
Topic Started: 1 Mar 2012, 02:33 PM (6,071 Views)
Rastus2
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impressive numbers at first glance.

A quick question .. sorry if it is a repeat of prior ones.

- Do these include refinancing ?
If so, is this an unusually large number of refinances ? any chance they might relate to the changes in break-out fees ?

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Lefty
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It looks like a good time for mortgage brokers - the outcomes recorded by AFG here do not remotely reflect the auction clearence rates over February, which remained fairly lacklustre. Either a new growth surge has begun but selling by auction has fallen out of favour - or there's a bit more to it than that.

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The numbers are fairly astonishing given that mortgage lending grew by just 0.5% in January, according to official RBA figures, with annual growth at just over 5%, the lowest figure in the 35 years of record keeping by the RBA.


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During February, major lenders’ share of new AFG mortgage lending dropped from 79% to 76.1%.


How many borrowers "voted with their feet" last month in response to the majors thumbing their nose at the RBA and everyone else?
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peter fraser
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Rastus2
1 Mar 2012, 10:09 PM
impressive numbers at first glance.

A quick question .. sorry if it is a repeat of prior ones.

- Do these include refinancing ?
If so, is this an unusually large number of refinances ? any chance they might relate to the changes in break-out fees ?

The figures do include refinancing, but the percentage of refi's has remained around 36% to 37% for some time. The numbers really do reflect an increase in sales of homes for investors and FTB's. FTB numbers have been trending upward for 12 months.

The one aspect that is unknown, is how much the broker share of the market grew as people rejected the big four after the bank bashing in the media last month.

RE agents that I have known for some years tell me that they are running short of stock in the basic 4 bed 2 bath 2 car area of the market - Bris West area.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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peter fraser
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Lefty
1 Mar 2012, 10:17 PM

How many borrowers "voted with their feet" last month in response to the majors thumbing their nose at the RBA and everyone else?
Lots did, but not 40%.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Strindberg
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Amazing re-write of yesterday's Deluded Economist's blog on macobusiness re the AFG report.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/03/correction-afg-was-not-so-hot/

Yesterday Deluded Economist wrote the blog on the AFG report in positive terms. Obviously his lord and master, David Llewellyn-Smith didn't like it. It wasn't what his readership wanted. He clearly got DE to rewrite it - especially the headline - and make up a pathetic excuse.
DE has used the excuse that yesterday he transposed the VIC and QLD figures. That, of course makes no difference to the national picture and the main message. But he had to have some excuse and we can't even now read what he wrote yesterday and what the changes are.

ALL YESTERDAY'S COMMENTS AND THE BLOG HAVE DISAPPEARED!!!!!!!!!!!

We know DLS censors the comments. David Llewellyn-Smith is now running total censorship on his bloggers.

This is what PRAVDA used to do pre-1990.

Deluded Economist has shown himself to be a weak as piss arse licker with absolutely no self respect. He's a lackey.
Edited by Strindberg, 2 Mar 2012, 11:11 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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dave289
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Looks very bearish to begin pete , " average new home loan reaches 400k for first time evr " , so straight away I can see that we are now in more debt than we have ever been before .

You should know whats going on here anyway pete , your are on the frontline .

While these numbers posted dont look to much different , in that low jan higher feb look simliar to last year. There is also now the scenario of people wanting longer settlement in general not to mention over the christmas break and also some -people that place in the contract that they have to sell their property first. Since this has only started to become the norm recently , being longer settlement , it could have the effect of building the numbers up initially as this new way starts to set in but should then return to a more normal pattern. I would also say the numbers are fudged in that while I dont doubt the numbers ,I doubt they are in the areas mentioned , I believe the majority would come from refinance , people are scared and looking for safety , not only that the banks are trying hard to scare people into locking in fixed rates now by lifting there variable rate by the smallest amount I have evr seen , seems to be working good . Banks know rates are coming down , and by scaring people like this they are doing more damage than good. Its a catch 22 for the banks now and will be for a long time.

So pete what area have you noticed the biggest number of new loans , you must speak to other likeminds.....
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Lefty
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peter fraser
2 Mar 2012, 09:45 AM
Lefty
1 Mar 2012, 10:17 PM

How many borrowers "voted with their feet" last month in response to the majors thumbing their nose at the RBA and everyone else?
Lots did, but not 40%.

Do you have actual numbers Peter?

I'm sure that at least a significant portion of this is due to actual positive growth - but to go from an ongoing overall slump in January to what could be described as a boom within a few short weeks, and while other general indicators such as auction clearence rates fail to show any material improvement in the same span of time that brokers business leaps like a pole-vaulter on steroids......I think it is logical to harbour a few doubts about the underlying strength of what we are seeing. But then I notice that you have already expressed doubts as to the stamina of this rally.

If January had not been as generally weak as it was, and if February's auction clearence rates had shown a solid bounce, then I would be saying to myself right now: "looks like I was wrong and housing is a lot stronger than I thought."

So, can we mainly put this down to a stampede of buyers rushing in while collectively yelling "interest rates are going up! Buy now or be priced out forever!!"? Or is there more to it than that.

In any case, it will be interesting to find out.
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Strindberg
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Lefty
2 Mar 2012, 01:57 PM
Do you have actual numbers Peter?
They're in the thread.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8294686&t=9427381
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Lefty
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Oh yes, I see now that I've opened the document up.

Refinancing was pretty well steady, so this really is something of a surge, for brokers at least. First time buyers did fall somewhat though. Average prices were up to new highs, though for some reason AFG prices mostly only go up, even when they are falling (the significant falls of last year through to January are not reflected in the AFG data - only steadily increasing prices).

Still, this looks like a real bounce of some magnitude, which fits in with my outlook - a long, slow price melt, punctuated by upwellings and plateaus of activity here and there.

By the way Peter, I notice that you pointed out the perma-bearishness of many posters on Macrobusiness regarding housing. You have a good point but I think their outlook is understandable - all most of them want is to be able to buy a home for themselves and their families without being shackled to a very heavy debt burden for their whole working life.

Coversely, many who display a permanently bullish outlook are just trying to make a living, and RE is their bread and butter - RE agent, mortgage broker etc, while investors just want to see their dream of making a lot of money fulfilled.
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peter fraser
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Lefty
2 Mar 2012, 02:21 PM
Oh yes, I see now that I've opened the document up.

Refinancing was pretty well steady, so this really is something of a surge, for brokers at least. First time buyers did fall somewhat though. Average prices were up to new highs, though for some reason AFG prices mostly only go up, even when they are falling (the significant falls of last year through to January are not reflected in the AFG data - only steadily increasing prices).

Still, this looks like a real bounce of some magnitude, which fits in with my outlook - a long, slow price melt, punctuated by upwellings and plateaus of activity here and there.

By the way Peter, I notice that you pointed out the perma-bearishness of many posters on Macrobusiness regarding housing. You have a good point but I think their outlook is understandable - all most of them want is to be able to buy a home for themselves and their families without being shackled to a very heavy debt burden for their whole working life.

Coversely, many who display a permanently bullish outlook are just trying to make a living, and RE is their bread and butter - RE agent, mortgage broker etc, while investors just want to see their dream of making a lot of money fulfilled.
Hi lefty,

Yes I have been spending a bit of time at MB and it's probably time to leave them alone for a while. I don't have an axe to grind with them, and I actually have a lot of respect for DE. So I'll try to move on from that topic. After all we all have our own bias and we all make mistakes, or perhaps colour our headlines - whatever. But I was a little disappointed in the "not so hot" call in the headline, I think it misrepresented the data completely. These numbers are indeed hot.

Yes even in the "slow melt" scenario some months might show a positive result, so you are quite correct.

The FHB numbers have been growing steadily for some time now.

Refer to my Raw FHB numbers graph - GRAPH HERE

Now to get that into perspective, the numbers are just nothing like the heady period in 2009 when FHB numbers hit 2000 to 2500 per month, so it's just NOT a boom, but the numbers have been increasing since January 2010 when it hit a low, well before most commentators realised that the boom had faded.

But, tell me what you think of that information and the graph. If you have another theory then I'll be pleased to hear it.

On your point about the bear posters - I do appreciate that point. I do try not to needlessly make insensitive points when I know that emotions run high on these issues. I let a lot of shots at me go past without retaliating even when those shots are often trite and lack substance.

But you will understand that being diplomatic is not always easy when the issue is unpalatable - some things just have to be said, and perhaps I could do better at times with my wording and language.

But still if I was 25 - 35 and wanting to buy my first house, then I would begrudgingly want the truth no matter how much it was at odds to my cause. What possible good can incorrect data or opinions be? How would they help me make the best possible decision for me and my family?



Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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