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Will house prices be higher or lower in 2 years?
Topic Started: 30 Jan 2012, 12:11 AM (5,682 Views)
Damo79
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Thanks for the replies guys. Answers ranging from 30% lower to a generalised higher, a long with some very sensible "no one knows" answers. I also agree that whatever happens, it will vary depending on state, city and suburb. For myself, I'm interested in the Adelaide inner suburbs (ie within 10km of the city). And to explain why I'm interested in people's opinions - I've move around a bit for work over the last few years (overseas) and am currently out of the housing market with my next house deposit sitting in the bank. In about 18 months I'll go overseas for work for 12 months, so although I'd much rather be in my own house now, I think we'll wait until we're back in Aus next time before buying (given that I lean towards the down side risk camp at the moment).

As I said in my first post, I think a decrease in investors brought about by a decrease in expectations of capital gains, will be a drive for price decreases. Although obviously some (Black Panther for example) still think property is a good investment. No doubt savvy shopping around and property selection will make this possible, but I don't think capital gains will be as automatic as they seem to have been over the last few years. In general, I do think property is an excellent long term investment; but then why by a good investment now when I may be able to buy the same good investment cheaper next year?
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Damo79
30 Jan 2012, 12:29 PM
I do think property is an excellent long term investment; but then why by a good investment now when I may be able to buy the same good investment cheaper next year?
Because the good ones have been and are being snapped up now.
Its generally the shit that gets left over for the numpties to pick over when they feel safer and prices are rising.

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PERTHBULL
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I think there are too many opposing factors to see a median house price of $350,000 in the next two years.
- Rising rent prices
- Lower interest rates
- Population growth & demand


The ball is in the owners court, I strongly believe that we control the market.
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barns
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Shadow
30 Jan 2012, 09:14 AM
The national median house price will be higher in two years time, however in one or two cities median prices will be lower.
+1. Although I don't expect any State capital city median to be lower in 2 years than it is today.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
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Damo79
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Frank Castle
30 Jan 2012, 12:47 PM
... the good ones have been and are being snapped up now.
Its generally the shit that gets left over for the numpties to pick over when they feel safer and prices are rising.

Hehe, wow I didn't realise I needed to rush! Maybe I'm already too late! What if there are no homes left for sale when I want to buy one?? :dry:
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Trojan
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Damo79
30 Jan 2012, 03:13 PM
Hehe, wow I didn't realise I needed to rush! Maybe I'm already too late! What if there are no homes left for sale when I want to buy one?? :dry:
I think you misread his post.
You can turn up to the boxing day sales at 4pm if you want and there will still be items to purchase.
But no need to rush.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Damo79
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Trojan
30 Jan 2012, 03:21 PM
Damo79
30 Jan 2012, 03:13 PM
Hehe, wow I didn't realise I needed to rush! Maybe I'm already too late! What if there are no homes left for sale when I want to buy one?? :dry:
I think you misread his post.
You can turn up to the boxing day sales at 4pm if you want and there will still be items to purchase.
But no need to rush.
It was only a tongue in cheek response anyway, but did I misread his implication? I thought it was pretty straightforward. "the good ones have been or are being snapped up now. It's generally the shit that gets left over..." So.. I'd kind of like a good one, rather than the shit that's left, to use Frank's words. I was just making the point that it's a bit silly to suggest that at any point in time the good houses are all gone and only the shit ones left to be purchased.
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Enrico Palazzo
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small/modest falls in nominal terms - both sides of politics will not change anything

but in real terms a lousy investment for some time to come
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davel
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Its a ridiculous post by Frank.

If there's nothing good in this years Boxing Day sale, just wait for next years :D

In these times of global deleveraging, its probably not a bad idea to wait and watch and see how Aus gets impacted. The downside risk of staying on the side is perhaps missing out on a few % points of growth, if the market does pick itself up. In that scenario, if you get worried you just buy at that stage (its unlikely you will be priced out or "all the good ones will be gone"). The downside of investing now is the potential for major loss, even if its only a paper one.

In some sense, the decision comes down to whether you believe the world economy is headed to the toilet or not. If you do think that, Aus must get hurt at some point and the downside is in play.

If you believe current troubles are a blip and the debt-train will get back on the tracks worldwide, then you might consider now a good time to buy. This is the view of many Bulls who criticise people for "talking down the economy" and so on. The last refuge of people who have lost the argument IMO.
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Frank Castle
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Damo79
30 Jan 2012, 03:41 PM
I was just making the point that it's a bit silly to suggest that at any point in time the good houses are all gone and only the shit ones left to be purchased.
Once again you have misread or failed to understand and davel has done the same.

You said

Quote:
 
I do think property is an excellent long term investment; but then why by a good investment now when I may be able to buy the same good investment cheaper next year?


A Good investment to me is house with potential to do more, double blocks or larger parcels again able to be split into multiples or units.
Even better when these "further use" investments can be grabbed at the right price as has been happening recently, leaving the shit ( a house the same as every other house in the street with no further chance of value adding) behind.

These are the ones you will be getting at a later date thinking you have an investment, when really all you have is the shit that no "real" investor wanted :lol:

And then when a block of units springs up, or 2 houses appear on was once a single block you will sit back and cry, "Gee, that guy was just "Lucky" he bought when he did".
Edited by Frank Castle, 30 Jan 2012, 04:13 PM.
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