Hello all. A very nerve racking first post given the VERY strong opinions that seem to be held here. I've been reading through the various threads in this forum for about a month or so which is enough to give me the impression that you have to be classified as a "bull" or "bear" depending on which way you think house prices are playing.
I'll come right out and say I'd guess I'm leaning towards the "bear" camp, but am open to anyone's ideas and opinions. A lot of the discussion that goes on here seems to be about who has predicted whatever happening in a particular quarter of a paritcular year etc etc. So I'll come right out and lable myself as a NEWBIE who hasn't made any predictions in the past. HOWEVER - I have come up with the opinion over the last 6 months or so that house prices are going to decrease in the near future. Please note that I say decrease; I don't say crash, and I make no allusion to a bubble. That isn't to say I don't necessarily think that the Australian housing market entered a bubble, but rather that I'm being careful over using inflaming language that just seems to start arguments on every single thread on this forum. I also say "near future"; I don't say 1,2 or 5 years. Exact predictions seem to leave you open to attack by some posters.
So to get back to my comment/question. I think Aus house prices are heading one way at the moment, and that's down. Maybe not be a lot, but account for CPI and even flat-lining is quite negative. To me, this says that as a pure investment, property is not so good. That opinion is based on the fact that it seems unusual for an investment property to be cash flow positive, thus most investments are made on the expectation of capital gains. So in my view, if their are no capital gains to me made in the near future (excuse the lack of a specific time-frame), then property investment could become much less popular. Now I don't know the exact figures, but I think something like a quarter of sales are to investors. If negative capital gains become a norm (a headline? an expectation?) then I think a reasonable proportion of that quarter of buyers will dissappear from the market. That is the main reason I'm expecting further decreases from the current prices - vicious cycle and all that.
So, although this seems to be discussed at length on almost every thread on this forum, I pose the question, "will house prices be higher or lower in 2 years?". Obviously I have my own opinion given that I'm posting a first message on a very polarised forum, so I'll say I'm expecting them to be lower, and if I was forced to give a guess (dangerouse though it is), I would have to say about 10% below current prices, without taking into accoutn CPI (whihc I guess will make it 14% down). That's mostly based on my previously expressed view on investors leaving the market and what looks like an overhang of long-term unsold properties.
I would hope that in two years time prices will be rising or at least have stopped falling - but it's a troubled world we live in at the moment, so it's anyone's guess.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Hello all. A very nerve racking first post given the VERY strong opinions that seem to be held here. I've been reading through the various threads in this forum for about a month or so which is enough to give me the impression that you have to be classified as a "bull" or "bear" depending on which way you think house prices are playing.
I'll come right out and say I'd guess I'm leaning towards the "bear" camp, but am open to anyone's ideas and opinions. A lot of the discussion that goes on here seems to be about who has predicted whatever happening in a particular quarter of a paritcular year etc etc. So I'll come right out and lable myself as a NEWBIE who hasn't made any predictions in the past. HOWEVER - I have come up with the opinion over the last 6 months or so that house prices are going to decrease in the near future. Please note that I say decrease; I don't say crash, and I make no allusion to a bubble. That isn't to say I don't necessarily think that the Australian housing market entered a bubble, but rather that I'm being careful over using inflaming language that just seems to start arguments on every single thread on this forum. I also say "near future"; I don't say 1,2 or 5 years. Exact predictions seem to leave you open to attack by some posters.
So to get back to my comment/question. I think Aus house prices are heading one way at the moment, and that's down. Maybe not be a lot, but account for CPI and even flat-lining is quite negative. To me, this says that as a pure investment, property is not so good. That opinion is based on the fact that it seems unusual for an investment property to be cash flow positive, thus most investments are made on the expectation of capital gains. So in my view, if their are no capital gains to me made in the near future (excuse the lack of a specific time-frame), then property investment could become much less popular. Now I don't know the exact figures, but I think something like a quarter of sales are to investors. If negative capital gains become a norm (a headline? an expectation?) then I think a reasonable proportion of that quarter of buyers will dissappear from the market. That is the main reason I'm expecting further decreases from the current prices - vicious cycle and all that.
So, although this seems to be discussed at length on almost every thread on this forum, I pose the question, "will house prices be higher or lower in 2 years?". Obviously I have my own opinion given that I'm posting a first message on a very polarised forum, so I'll say I'm expecting them to be lower, and if I was forced to give a guess (dangerouse though it is), I would have to say about 10% below current prices, without taking into accoutn CPI (whihc I guess will make it 14% down). That's mostly based on my previously expressed view on investors leaving the market and what looks like an overhang of long-term unsold properties.
Be gentle, I'm new ;)
you will not get an answer you can take to the bank I'm afraid.. no-one knows for certain.
Also, it depends where you are talking about...
some places may in fact boom, while others crash (or just trend downwards).
At the end of the day, DYOR and make your own decision.
If you had been on a forum like this one some 6-7 years ago and decided to not buy, then you might have missed out on some great capital gains... on the other hand if you had been on the forum only 4-5 years ago and bought in some areas of Australia, you might be in negative equity (owe more than your house is worth) today.
Either way there are a lot of 'experts' here who can only conjecture.
you will not get an answer you can take to the bank I'm afraid.. no-one knows for certain
You can take my answer to the bank. Good first post damo.The answer to your question in general is yes ,house prices will be cheaper in all capital cities in two years time,will also be cheaper in twelve months time and will probably be also cheaper in five years time.all the best , dave
What I do know for sure is that globally there is a massive debt bubble and that it is impossible for all of this to be repaid at full value. Therefore at some point there will be a significant financial event(s) and Australia will feel the repercussions.
The risk of buying in Australia now is too great for me but everyone must make up their own minds.
With unprecedented growth in rents during the 1st phase of the new up cycle in 2012, there will be a rush to buy or build properties for either investment or to live in.
This will definitely see prices moving up strongly.
Dont kid yourself that no one has the answer. Many DO get it and are already pouring money into Real Estate.
As each day passes, more and more suburbs in Aus are seeing prices stabilizing or going up.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy