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Leith van Onselen from Macrobusiness gets it wrong - again!; Macrobusiness credibility is in ruins once again
Topic Started: 27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM (6,707 Views)
Shadow
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Rastus2
27 Jan 2012, 11:50 PM
Quote:
 
The bottom line here is that house prices did rise in the December quarter according to the latest APM data.
What Rubbish !
How on earth do you know prices did not fall based on what you know today ?

Indeed, based on the fact that APM have demonstrated their data is wrong enough last quarter, how can you state this with confidence ? Wait for the (quietly) revised number and then make your claim.

You can, however, claim that based on APM's latest (provision) data and their previously flawed (now revised) quater's data, prices went up.
Um... what part of 'according to the latest APM data' didn't you understand? :rolleyes:

But fine, you can take the position that all future ABS/GDP/CPI etc figures are misreported and misrepresented if you want.
Edited by Shadow, 28 Jan 2012, 12:09 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Just to clarify here. Leith's claim of misreporting/misrepresentation was not about the fact that the APM preliminary results for September were later revised.

Leith's claim is that APM misrepresented/misreported by comparing the latest December figures with the latest September figures to show that house prices had (based on the latest data) risen. This is where Leith screwed up. APM were absolutely right to compare the latest December figures with the latest September figures. This is exactly what the ABS does, and this was the right thing for APM to do. APM did not misreport or misrepresent anything by comparing the latest December figures with the latest September figures.

Leith thinks we should compare the latest December figures with the unrevised September figures to show a fall. This is wrong.

The fact that the September data was later revised is a side issue. The quarterly data is always revised.
Edited by Shadow, 28 Jan 2012, 12:12 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
27 Jan 2012, 11:58 PM
Um... what part of 'according to the latest APM data' didn't you understand? :rolleyes:

But fine, you can take LVO's position that all future ABS/GDP/CPI etc figures are misreported and misrepresented if you want.

lol.. ok, well based on previously flawed data that has had to be quietly revised without any indication, and on currently flawed data that will be quietly revised in the future, it seems that prices may have risen.

The caveat is that when next quarter's revised data is released (and the revision is quietly placed in the table without any mention it is revised), the rise might turn out to be a drop.


It's not as impressive when you tell it like it is eh ?

btw, I take it you have not problem with anyone producing data and then revising it without notice ever again ?

You and Strindberg's claim that "APM have done what the ABS do EVERY QUARTER when they announce their results" is false... ABS clearly label revisions, APM seem to avoid it. I really do wonder what their reasoning is.

Quote:
 

But fine, you can take LVO's position that all future ABS/GDP/CPI etc figures are misreported and misrepresented if you want.

fine, we are in agreement then .. I will criticize that ABS has not shown it's revisions every time it does, and you will do so when APM do so.
righto.. my job will be easy enough.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Shadow
28 Jan 2012, 12:08 AM
Just to clarify here. Leith's claim of misreporting/misrepresentation was not about the fact that the APM preliminary results for September were later revised.


The fact the September data was revised is a side issue. The quarterly data is always revised.

Actually, just to clarify here, shadow is wrong.. Leith cites both misreporting and quiet revision.


Quote:
 

I don’t think APM’s mis-reporting that house prices rose (marginally) was deliberate, just sloppy.

Quote:
 
APM should have disclosed that their previous release was revised down rather than report that house prices have improved. This is misleading in my view.


No-one is complaining about revised data... the issue is revised data that is simply put into a table with not indication it is revised.

You still fail to understand how suspect revised figures look if they are not treated in the same way that ABS do.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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zaph
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Shadow
27 Jan 2012, 07:42 PM
My observation over the years is that figures are generally revised up when the market is moving up, and generally revised down when the market is moving down. When revisions change from predominantly up to predominantly down, and vice versa, it often seems to signal a turning point in the market. This applies to all the data providers who revise, not just RPData but also ABS and APM. It applies to non-housing data too. Not a hard and fast rule, but just something I have observed happening more often than not.
interesting, i wonder what causes that? my observation was only during the period of falls, so we agree.

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Shadow
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This is a summary of false statements from Leith's blog.

Quote:
 
'APM misreports own house price data'

'the rise in December’s house prices were caused entirely by a 0.5% downward revision in September’s results'

'Australian house prices actually fell by -0.4%, with Melbourne (-0.8%)'

'they did also mis-represent unit prices'

'maybe made to look like like sloppy just in case someone picks it up? Make two “errors” one that is in your advantage and one that is not. When you draw the line the gain from the error that is in your advantage is outweighing by far the loss from the other. That’s the way to cook the books so it may be blamed on sloppiness if it gets discovered'
These statements are all false, perhaps defamatory.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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Another MB member has called Leith on his hypocrisy...

Quote:
 
Except you don’t report the ABS Unemployment data as:

“ABS misreports own unemployment data”

even though their own commentary explicitly compares the revised previous month with the latest month (exactly as APM does).

Wouldn’t make as good a headline for MB I guess.

As far as I can see, the only difference is that the ABS explicitly restates the revision, rather than leaving us to dig out the last release.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/apm-misreports-own-data/#comment-121320

I think it's time for Leith to remove all the false accusations of misreporting and misrepresentation from his blog, and change the title to...

'APM leaves us to read their last release rather than explicitly stating revisions'

Wouldn't have quite the same impact, but at least it would be truthful...
Edited by Shadow, 28 Jan 2012, 08:15 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
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Shadow
28 Jan 2012, 08:11 AM
Another MB member has called Leith on his hypocrisy...



I think it's time for Leith to remove all the false accusations of misreporting and misrepresentation from his blog, and change the title to...

'APM leaves us to read their last release rather than explicitly stating revisions'

Wouldn't have quite the same impact, but at least it would be truthful...

As I said earlier in this thread, MB was awkward with his criticism and the wording could have been better.


I don't think the new (and old) heading is very good at all, in fact equally akward, but it's not my story to dictate.

I'm sure APM will get their lawyers (or even their layers) to force a retraction soon enough.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Strindberg
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It's worth taking a look at last week's ABS labour force release in which they reported that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.2% in December and unchanged from November.

The November rate published in December (here) was 5.3%.

It appears therefore that the November rate was revised down from 5.3% to 5.2%. I can locate NO mention of that revision. There was no mention by the ABS of the revision in the media release, the summary release, the full PDF release or in the XLS table. There may be a revelation of the revision somewhere - but where?

The ABS release of the December data is here:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Media%20Release1Dec%202011?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=Dec%202011&num=&view=

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Dec%202011?OpenDocument

Click on the summary and main features.

There is no mention of any revision to the November data.

Click on the summary and media release.

There is no mention of any revision to the November data.

Click explanatory notes.

There is no mention of any revision to the November data.

Click on downloads and click on the full PDF release.

The PDF contains no mention of any revision to the November data.

Click on downloads and table 2 XLS which contains the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in column AB.

The unemployment rate is shown as 5.2% for both November and December.
All trace of the previously published 5.3% rate for November has disappeared.
There is no mention that the November rate was revised.

With last weeks release, the ABS reported that the SA unemployment rate was unchanged from November to December at 5.2%. LVO also reported that there was no change and made no mention that the November figures had been revised. He compared the December figure with the REVISED November figure. A policy for which he attacks APM. He's a hypocrite.



Edited by Strindberg, 28 Jan 2012, 09:47 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Rastus2
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Strindberg
28 Jan 2012, 09:29 AM
It's worth taking a look at last week's ABS labour force release in which they reported that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.2% in December and unchanged from November.

The November rate published in December (here) was 5.3%.

It appears therefore that the November rate was revised down from 5.3% to 5.2%. I can locate NO mention of that revision. There was no mention by the ABS of the revision in the media release, the summary release, the full PDF release or in the XLS table. There may be a revelation of the revision somewhere - but where?

The ABS release of the December data is here:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Media%20Release1Dec%202011?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=Dec%202011&num=&view=

<summary of how to show previous data>



good find Strindberg.

I will be honest and state that I did not follow all of your instructions to see the old/raw data. All I did was look at the one link you sited with the latest release. I will take you at your word that the previous data was revised between last publication and this one.

I agree, the page you link does not have the word revise, revision or such like.

So there you go... if they did, indeed revise (as the usual), ABS did not make note of it specifically on that document.

What they do have is a link via
6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Nov 2011 Quality Declaration
which takes you to another page that includes


The changes which have been made to the Labour Force Survey have included changes in sampling methods, estimation methods, concepts, data item definitions, classifications, and time series analysis techniques. In introducing these changes the ABS has generally revised previous estimates to ensure consistency and coherence with current estimates. For a full list of changes made to the Labour Force Survey see Chapter 20 in Labour Statistics: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 6102.0.55.001).


Overall, not what I expected either as it is not specifically on the document, although there is a note right beside the heading taking you to a quality declaration.

Better than nothing, but would be nicer to see a mention of revision specifically on that document.. does ABS send out PDF versions of those documents without the quality statement ?
Edited by Rastus2, 28 Jan 2012, 09:41 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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