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Leith van Onselen from Macrobusiness gets it wrong - again!; Macrobusiness credibility is in ruins once again
Topic Started: 27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM (6,708 Views)
Lefty
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Quote:
 
The main issue here is that Macrobusiness lied when they claimed that APM misrepresented and misreported the figures.


Macrobusiness is a compilation of seven or eight different bloggers - you're charging all of them with the comments made by one?
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Shadow
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Rastus2
27 Jan 2012, 10:32 PM
ok then, if it's so obvious to anyone who reads the document, can you please show me where on the APM document it shows the fact that the data was revised ?
The revised September figure is printed quite clearly in the report. What do you want - big red letters beside every figure in the September column stating "these figure are revised". Of course they are revised - every quarter the previous quarter is revised. This goes for pretty much all house price data - ABS, APM, RPData etc.

Residex never revise, they have the only 'non-revisionary' index. But for everyone else, it's a given that the previous quarter will be revised.

Quote:
 
it is not a side point... it is what the MB were trying to say, albeit clumsily
That's not what they were trying to say.

The original MB blog made no mention of revisions not being specifically explained in the APM report.

Leith hastily wrote a blog effectively labeling APM as dishonest, in order to score points and ingratiate himself with his gloomster fanbase.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 10:48 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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Lefty
27 Jan 2012, 10:39 PM


Macrobusiness is a compilation of seven or eight different bloggers - you're charging all of them with the comments made by one?

I'm accusing the site of publishing false information (and not for the first time).
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 10:47 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Perthite
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earthsta
27 Jan 2012, 08:43 PM
It's not best practice to deliberately "guild the lily" with the original announcements, complete with MSM fanfare and payola from the likes of Pascoe and co, THEN quietly revise the figures down at a later date.

This is standard fare for APM in particular and all the real estate data providers in general.

It borders on fraud
I think something is up with REIWA numbers also. Sept quarter numbers where vastly different from other data sets in terms of %. Now they have gone to town with a small increase in the December quarter but it is looking like they will be the odd ones out. I would say they will then revise it away when no one is looking because they look inept.
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Rastus2
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What do you want ?


here is what i would expect.

Since it was yourself and others who brought up the topic of ABS and how APM operate in the same way.

The APM data (when it is revised) to be marked (subtle * is fine with footer) that it is revised.

Is this an unreasonable request ?
why exactly ?

I have no problem with revised data.. but it is rather sloppy (at best) to present that data now modified (aka revised) with no explanation.


stepping back and looking at the headline...
APM misreports own house price data

mis·re·port (msr-pôrt, -prt)
tr.v. mis·re·port·ed, mis·re·port·ing, mis·re·ports
To report mistakenly or falsely.
n.
An inaccurate or wrong report.

It would seem that the September report, was, indeed, wrong. (thus the need to revise).
I don't see MB saying this was fraud, despite some here claiming this is some kind of attempt at slander... what I see is a valid concern that the revisions are happening quietly in the background to obscure how wrong their data (and thus, report) was in September.

Once again, how is this wrong or slanderous ?
--------------------------------------

indeed Shadow, this is a perfect time for you to show some balance here and explain to Strindberg that he is incorrect with his attack in this thread on MB. (like you ever would do that :rolleyes: )
Edited by Rastus2, 27 Jan 2012, 11:02 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
27 Jan 2012, 11:00 PM
APM misreports own house price data

mis·re·port (msr-pôrt, -prt)
tr.v. mis·re·port·ed, mis·re·port·ing, mis·re·ports
To report mistakenly or falsely.
n.
An inaccurate or wrong report.

It would seem that the September report, was, indeed, wrong. (thus the need to revise)
No, it wasn't wrong - it was preliminary, or unrevised. In the same way that the first release of almost any important data (GDP, CPI, ABS house prices etc) is preliminary and unrevised. The preliminary data is revised as more data comes in. However, this is a perfect time for you to show some balance here, and explain to the Macrobusiness bears that they are now obliged to label every future ABS house price, or CPI, or GDP report as wrong / misrepresentation / misreported etc.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 11:16 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
27 Jan 2012, 11:15 PM
No, it wasn't wrong - it was preliminary, or unrevised. In the same way that the first release of almost any important data (GDP, CPI, ABS house prices etc) is preliminary and unrevised. The preliminary data is revised as more data comes in. However, this is a perfect time for you to show some balance here, and explain to the Macrobusiness bears that they are now obliged to label every future ABS house price, or CPI, or GDP report as wrong / misrepresentation / misreported etc.


and there you have it.

How about this.. I will critisize every ABS report that comes out using data which has just been revised and yet does not show the word revised, revision or any similar word)...

the trade is that you show some balance and knowledge if it's good enough for ABS to do it, it's good enough for APM to also do it.


As for your claim that 'it wasn't wrong'.. don't be silly.

The data was wrong which led to the sept. report beign wrong .. what part of wrong do you not understand ? When it is revised, it can then be claimed to be right (or at least, less wrong)... none the less, looking at the defination I gave you, the report was wrong.

It's easy to put out reports... the difficulty is putting them out in such a way as to make revisions not show up how wrong the previous ones were.

By your logic any report that is completely wrong (due to poor or inacurate data) is not wrong if data ends up showing it was wrong down the track.. funny world you live in.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
27 Jan 2012, 11:33 PM
By your logic any report that is completely wrong (due to poor or inacurate data) is not wrong if data ends up showing it was wrong down the track
It is well known that initial releases of house price data, CPI, GDP etc are preliminary and will be revised as more data becomes available.

Publishing that preliminary data, and revising it later as more data becomes available, is standard practice.

It is not misreporting or misrepresentation to do so.

The bottom line here is that house prices did rise in the December quarter according to the latest APM data.

Prices did not fall as claimed by Leith van Onselen.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 11:40 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Quote:
 

It is well known that initial releases of house price data, CPI, GDP etc are preliminary and will be revised as more data becomes available.


Yes it is well known, and well labeled with reputable data providers.

Oddly, APM do not see themselves as requiring to label revision data. You might not have a problem with that, but anyone citing ABS like you and strindberg should.

Quote:
 
Publishing that preliminary data, and revising it later as more data becomes available, is standard practice.

Quote:
 

It is not misreporting or misrepresentation to do so.

yawn..

If I have a set of data today that is incorrect, and I report that prices have shot down 20% based on that data.. I have a report that is wrong.

I think that constitutes a mis-report.

If I then get more data that shows my previous claim in the report was wrong. I can elect to revise that data. To not make any mention on the table that I produce to show I have revised that data is poor and sloppy reporting of the data).

Was their data misreported ? nope, it was just plain wrong. They misreported the reality by pretending their prelim data was accurate enough to base a report with great detail in, and then hid that error by not making any mention of how wrong their data was.

They did not mis-report their data, they mis-reported the conclusions you could reasonable expect to draw from that data since the data is prone to revisions that can cause egg on their face if they are not cautious.

Do you have many examples of ABS doing this ? nope... why ? because it is poor and sloppy work that makes your latest set of data less credible.

As for your claim that
Quote:
 

The bottom line here is that house prices did rise in the December quarter according to the latest APM data.


What Rubbish !
How on earth do you know prices did not fall based on what you know today ?

Indeed, based on the fact that APM have demonstrated their data is wrong enough last quarter, how can you state this with confidence ? Wait for the (quietly) revised number and then make your claim.

You can, however, claim that based on APM's latest (provision) data and their previously flawed (now revised) quater's data, prices went up.



Edited by Rastus2, 27 Jan 2012, 11:53 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Gossamer
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44th most prolific poster on APF

Why so much vitriol? People should refrain from personal attacks and stick to facts.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.

APF idiot list
Nelson
Black Panther
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