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Leith van Onselen from Macrobusiness gets it wrong - again!; Macrobusiness credibility is in ruins once again
Topic Started: 27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM (6,709 Views)
earthsta
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Shadow
27 Jan 2012, 07:34 PM


Leith also accuses APM of sloppiness. But there is nothing sloppy about revising figures as more data becomes available. In fact this is best practice. It would be sloppy NOT to revise the figures. Leith's credibility is utterly destroyed here.
It's not best practice to deliberately "guild the lily" with the original announcements, complete with MSM fanfare and payola from the likes of Pascoe and co, THEN quietly revise the figures down at a later date.

This is standard fare for APM in particular and all the real estate data providers in general.

It borders on fraud
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Lefty
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Quote:
 
It's obvious that not only did the falls not accelerate, they slowed down over the year, and have actually turned around into moderate gains.


They have?
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Rastus2
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Lefty
27 Jan 2012, 09:05 PM


They have?

yes indeed...

if I read the story correctly, owners made something like $130.00 gains in their value !!! ...

Now if it was under $1 that would probably be reported as flat, however once you get a rise of more than $100 then it's obviously a rise.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Lefty
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Ah, of course :cool:

When something has a price tag of hundreds of thousands of dollars, I probably wouldn't describe such gains as "moderate".
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
27 Jan 2012, 08:43 PM
It's not best practice to deliberately "guild the lily" with the original announcements, complete with MSM fanfare and payola from the likes of Pascoe and co, THEN quietly revise the figures down at a later date.
The revisions are quite clear to anyone who reads the report. There is no fanfare when the ABS revise their figures either. Past revisions are rarely mentioned in mainstream media articles - they are usually only visible in the actual APM or ABS reports, for those who take the time to look at the figures in detail.

This applies to upward and downward revisions equally. I don't hear the bears complaining when figures are 'quietly' revised UP by APM.

There's no need for a huge fanfare when figures are revised up or down - anyone who is really interested can check out the revisions for themselves.

Anyway, that's a side point. The main issue here is that Macrobusiness lied when they claimed that APM misrepresented and misreported the figures.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 09:45 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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The Punisher
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Strindberg
27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8288260&t=9361184

Edit add - to save you going over to the other thread:

Ludicrous. UE whinges here:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/apm-misreports-own-data/

with the headline:




Analysis of Leith van Onselen's complaint reveals it to be this:

APM in assessing the change from the September quarter to the December quarter have used the latest September quarter figures and the latest December quarter figures.

That is the only logical course of action to take. APM have done what the ABS do EVERY QUARTER when they announce their results. When the ABS report quarterly changes they report the change from the previous revised quarter figure. To do otherwise would be stupid. The ABS adopt the same approach with all of their data releases like employment etc.
I have never read Leith van Onselen complaining about the ABS using the practice of which he is now complaining. He is a hypocrite.

Leith's headline is an out and out lie. APM correctly reported their figures. They reported the changes based on the previous period's revised figures - as they should and as the ABS always do.

Leith van Onselen has yet again made up shit for the consumption of his doom and gloom audience.
If I get you two gaylords a LVO blowup doll you can have all the fun times you like with it in private and this obsession won't have to spill over into public any more.

What do you think?
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Aussiehouseprices
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Strindberg
27 Jan 2012, 07:46 PM
In that case you agree that Onselen's blog headline, in big letters, is false and should be withdrawn.
Or maybe just put in smaller letters.
Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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Shadow
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The Punisher
27 Jan 2012, 09:53 PM
you two gaylords
I often wonder why bears so often become abusive when their errors are pointed out, or when they discover facts that shatter the doom and gloom illusion.

It seems to be a predominantly bear trait. You rarely see the bulls launch into this type of unprovoked abuse.

1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Strindberg
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The Punisher
27 Jan 2012, 09:53 PM
What do you think?
I think you're bear who has been waiting for years for a crash you were promised by your pin-up boys like LVO and you are the sort who lap up any bearshit regardless of its truth. You think that it's fine and dandy to make up shit and throttle any and all exposure of such shenanigans. Hence your post.

Defenders of made up crap in this thread are now trying change the issue - move the goalposts. They, and Leith in his comment, are trying to make the issue the non-disclosure of revisions. If that really was the basis of complaint in Leith's blog, then why the hell did Leith not even mention that issue in the blog? I'll tell you why. When he wrote the blog he didn't imagine his hypocrisy would be exposed, even by his own supporters. The issue of the disclosure of the revisions is something he thought of afterwards as a face saving exercise. He screwed up. He never admits his screw-ups. He has a blog still claiming that the age of the average UK FHB is 37 rather than the actual 29. He makes stuff up. He'll say anything that he knows his Mish/zerohedge gloomers want to read, just so he can help H&H to get a bit more ad revenue.

The issue is his blog headline. He claims APM misreported. They did not. But don't expect him to change his headline to a truthful one. Truth is not something he knows anything about.
Edited by Strindberg, 27 Jan 2012, 10:32 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Rastus2
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Shadow
27 Jan 2012, 09:43 PM
The revisions are quite clear to anyone who reads the report. There is no fanfare when the ABS revise their figures either. Past revisions are rarely mentioned in mainstream media articles - they are usually only visible in the actual APM or ABS reports, for those who take the time to look at the figures in detail.

This applies to upward and downward revisions equally. I don't hear the bears complaining when figures are 'quietly' revised UP by APM.

There's no need for a huge fanfare when figures are revised up or down - anyone who is really interested can check out the revisions for themselves.

Anyway, that's a side point. The main issue here is that Macrobusiness lied when they claimed that APM misrepresented and misreported the figures.

ok then, if it's so obvious to anyone who reads the document, can you please show me where on the APM document it shows the fact that the data was revised ?

I have shown you where it appeared on the ABS document.

it is not a side point... it is what the MB were trying to say, albeit clumsily.

A revised set of data should, at the very least, have the word 'revised' noted somewhere on that document should it not ?
Edited by Rastus2, 27 Jan 2012, 10:33 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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