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Leith van Onselen from Macrobusiness gets it wrong - again!; Macrobusiness credibility is in ruins once again
Topic Started: 27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM (6,710 Views)
zaph
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Aussiehouseprices
27 Jan 2012, 05:57 PM
Anyone know which way APM's revisions usually go?
i don't follow APM very much. always suspected they were dodgy and the latest sydney figures confirm that.

I've looked at RPD stats and while i haven't done an in depth analysis it would appear that they are revised down more than up, but not by a large amount.
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Rastus2
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Strindberg
27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8288260&t=9361184

Edit add - to save you going over to the other thread:

Ludicrous. UE whinges here:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/apm-misreports-own-data/

with the headline:




Analysis of Leith van Onselen's complaint reveals it to be this:

APM in assessing the change from the September quarter to the December quarter have used the latest September quarter figures and the latest December quarter figures.

That is the only logical course of action to take. APM have done what the ABS do EVERY QUARTER when they announce their results. When the ABS report quarterly changes they report the change from the previous revised quarter figure. To do otherwise would be stupid. The ABS adopt the same approach with all of their data releases like employment etc.
I have never read Leith van Onselen complaining about the ABS using the practice of which he is now complaining. He is a hypocrite.

Leith's headline is an out and out lie. APM correctly reported their figures. They reported the changes based on the previous period's revised figures - as they should and as the ABS always do.

Leith van Onselen has yet again made up shit for the consumption of his doom and gloom audience.

fair comment, but let me ask a couple of questions ..

Did the APM publish the revised figures before doing this latest report ?

and

does the ABS cite they are using revised numbers from the previous quarter with any new release that uses them ?

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
27 Jan 2012, 07:04 PM
Did the APM publish the revised figures before doing this latest report ?

and

does the ABS cite they are using revised numbers from the previous quarter with any new release that uses them ?
APM published the revised September figures in the December report, which is the same way the ABS does it.

Here's another comment from the Macrobusiness site, which in my opinion is quite defamatory, suggesting APM 'cook the books' ...

Quote:
 
maybe made to look like like sloppy just in case someone picks it up? Make two “errors” one that is in your advantage and one that is not. When you draw the line the gain from the error that is in your advantage is outweighing by far the loss from the other. That’s the way to cook the books so it may be blamed on sloppiness if it gets discovered

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/apm-misreports-own-data/#comment-121318

Leith also accuses APM of sloppiness. But there is nothing sloppy about revising figures as more data becomes available. In fact this is best practice. It would be sloppy NOT to revise the figures. Leith's credibility is utterly destroyed here.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 07:37 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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zaph
27 Jan 2012, 06:39 PM
i don't follow APM very much. always suspected they were dodgy and the latest sydney figures confirm that.

I've looked at RPD stats and while i haven't done an in depth analysis it would appear that they are revised down more than up, but not by a large amount.
My observation over the years is that figures are generally revised up when the market is moving up, and generally revised down when the market is moving down. When revisions change from predominantly up to predominantly down, and vice versa, it often seems to signal a turning point in the market. This applies to all the data providers who revise, not just RPData but also ABS and APM. It applies to non-housing data too. Not a hard and fast rule, but just something I have observed happening more often than not.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 07:42 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
27 Jan 2012, 07:34 PM
APM published the revised September figures in the December report, which is the same way the ABS does it.

Here's another comment from the Macrobusiness site, which in my opinion is quite defamatory, suggesting APM 'cook the books' ...



Leith also accuses APM of sloppiness. But there is nothing sloppy about revising figures as more data becomes available. In fact this is best practice. It would be sloppy NOT to revise the figures. Leith's credibility is utterly destroyed here.

so both ABS and APM publish revised figures and both of them clearly state those previous figures were revised ? is that correct ?

If so then that's interesting... pretty poor attempt to discredit APM.

btw rather than saying they were moderate gains, I would call them flat.

Seriously .. would you call a drop of that magnitude a moderate fall ?



edit:

Hmm.. I just downloaded
http://www.domain.com.au/content/files/apm/reports/APM_House_Price_Report_Sept_11_FINAL.pdf
(note the word 'final' in the report name).

I did a quick search for revised and revise ... no words in there at all.

How do they advise readers that these are revised figures they are showing on this document ?

I just downloaded the Dec one as well (also the word 'final' in it's name).
No mention of the word revise or revised for it's previous data.

Are you chaps saying that ABS also does not mention the word revise or revised on it's published data when it has changed from the previous quater ?
Edited by Rastus2, 27 Jan 2012, 07:48 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Strindberg
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Aussiehouseprices
27 Jan 2012, 06:18 PM
I agree there was no misreporting.
In that case you agree that Onselen's blog headline, in big letters, is false and should be withdrawn.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Perthite
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Strindberg
27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8288260&t=9361184

Edit add - to save you going over to the other thread:

Ludicrous. UE whinges here:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/apm-misreports-own-data/

with the headline:




Analysis of Leith van Onselen's complaint reveals it to be this:

APM in assessing the change from the September quarter to the December quarter have used the latest September quarter figures and the latest December quarter figures.

That is the only logical course of action to take. APM have done what the ABS do EVERY QUARTER when they announce their results. When the ABS report quarterly changes they report the change from the previous revised quarter figure. To do otherwise would be stupid. The ABS adopt the same approach with all of their data releases like employment etc.
I have never read Leith van Onselen complaining about the ABS using the practice of which he is now complaining. He is a hypocrite.

Leith's headline is an out and out lie. APM correctly reported their figures. They reported the changes based on the previous period's revised figures - as they should and as the ABS always do.

Leith van Onselen has yet again made up shit for the consumption of his doom and gloom audience.
I guess if he is going to make up shit the best thing he can do is smear it underneath your nose. I'm sure he is reading this and pissing himself laughing.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
27 Jan 2012, 07:34 PM
APM published the revised September figures in the December report, which is the same way the ABS does it.

Here's another comment from the Macrobusiness site, which in my opinion is quite defamatory, suggesting APM 'cook the books' ...



Leith also accuses APM of sloppiness. But there is nothing sloppy about revising figures as more data becomes available. In fact this is best practice. It would be sloppy NOT to revise the figures. Leith's credibility is utterly destroyed here.

I agree 100% that there is nothing wrong with publishing revised figures as they come to light.

It is, however, sloppy to not cite that the data has been revised.

ABS:
REVISIONS

Estimates for the two most recent quarters of the HPI series are preliminary and subject to revision (see paragraphs 15 to 19 of the Explanatory Notes).

The series for the median price of established house transfers (unstratified) and the number of established house transfers (published in Tables 7 and 8 respectively) are also subject to revision as the ABS receives more data from the Valuers-General. A change to data provision and a review of ABS processes in the September quarter 2011 have led to larger than usual revisions to these series.


APM: ???

It is also very sloppy to revise previous data, publish new data, and cite a direction based on that without mentioning that the previous data was revised for that document.

Illegal ? nope
Fraudulent ? prob not
Sloppy ? certainly. I don't think you can argue against that based on the sep and dec documents I just looked... not one mention of revised data at all.
Edited by Rastus2, 27 Jan 2012, 07:54 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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hoofarted
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It is almost like our resident bulls work for APM, REA's or something... just saying... So much emotion on behalf of 66% of the nation.
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earthsta
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Strindberg
27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM



I'm a stalker
Seriously.....seek professional help
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