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Leith van Onselen from Macrobusiness gets it wrong - again!; Macrobusiness credibility is in ruins once again
Topic Started: 27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM (6,705 Views)
Strindberg
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http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8288260&t=9361184

Edit add - to save you going over to the other thread:

Ludicrous. UE whinges here:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/apm-misreports-own-data/

with the headline:

Quote:
 
APM misreports own house price data


Analysis of Leith van Onselen's complaint reveals it to be this:

APM in assessing the change from the September quarter to the December quarter have used the latest September quarter figures and the latest December quarter figures.

That is the only logical course of action to take. APM have done what the ABS do EVERY QUARTER when they announce their results. When the ABS report quarterly changes they report the change from the previous revised quarter figure. To do otherwise would be stupid. The ABS adopt the same approach with all of their data releases like employment etc.
I have never read Leith van Onselen complaining about the ABS using the practice of which he is now complaining. He is a hypocrite.

Leith's headline is an out and out lie. APM correctly reported their figures. They reported the changes based on the previous period's revised figures - as they should and as the ABS always do.

Leith van Onselen has yet again made up shit for the consumption of his doom and gloom audience.
Edited by Strindberg, 27 Jan 2012, 05:18 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Leith van Onselen's credibility is in tatters.

He will say just about anything to appeal to his doom & gloom followers.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Wisebear
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Strindberg
27 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM
Get a life.
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Sherlock
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Leith van Onselen, accuses APM of misreporting, and misrepresentation!!

Leiths blog is bordering on libel -- and defamation!!
Edited by Sherlock, 27 Jan 2012, 05:25 PM.
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Bowral trash trader
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Ok stringy - you've established UE's weaknesses. Time to move on. It's no big deal. MB fill a need. The gloomers have to be fed. If it wasn't MB it'd be some place else. Just ignore them.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Quote:
 
In fact, if we compare December’s numbers against APM’s September release – not the downwardly revised September figures – we see that Australian house prices actually fell by -0.4%

This is a really silly comment by LVO. Why would you compare December against the unrevised September figure?

The facts are as reported accurately by APM. Using the latest APM data, house prices did rise in the December quarter.

This latest blog by Leith van Onselen reeks of desperation... can't wait to see their reaction next week if the RPData figures are positive too.

I guess the problem is all the Macrobusiness bears expected the minor falls in 2011 to accelerate into a crash. It's obvious that not only did the falls not accelerate, they slowed down over the year, and have actually turned around into moderate gains.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jan 2012, 05:36 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Strindberg
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Bullion Baron says APM have not misreported. He's saying Leith's headline is false.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/apm-misreports-own-data/#comment-121283

Quote:
 
Bullion Baron
January 27, 2012 at 4:15 pm

+1 I don’t understand how the numbers have been misreported, they have just been revised prior to reporting the next quarterly result. Pretty sure the ABS does the same with their house price index, reports price movements based on revised figures if they change from one release to the next.


Leith reported last week on the ABS employment figures. He wrote:
Quote:
 
The nation’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%

It was steady based on a revised figure the month before. It fell from the UNREVISED figure of the previous month. If Leith was consistent, and not a hypocrite, he would have used the same approach he is now trying to apply to APM. He would have said the rate fell. But he didn't - he adopted the revised previous month figure and stated that the rate was steady. He stinks.
Edited by Strindberg, 27 Jan 2012, 05:58 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Aussiehouseprices
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If the revisions are roughly 50% up / 50% down, I think it's right to compare the initial current-period figure to the revised previous-period figure. But if the revision is consistently down, such a comparison is misleading.

The REIV do this with clearance rates which gave the false impression that clearances rates were improving most weeks last year, when the opposite was true.

Anyone know which way APM's revisions usually go?
Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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Strindberg
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Aussiehouseprices
27 Jan 2012, 05:57 PM


Anyone know which way APM's revisions usually go?
Dunno but just within the September figures the houses were revised 0.5% down but units were revised 0.6% UP. Some cites down, some up. Where's the evidence of hanky-panky you are alluding to?

Anyway, what was misreported? Nothing. That is the issue.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Aussiehouseprices
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Strindberg
27 Jan 2012, 06:06 PM
Dunno but just within the September figures the houses were revised 0.5% down but units were revised 0.6% UP. Some cites down, some up. Where's the evidence of hanky-panky you are alluding to?

Anyway, what was misreported? Nothing. That is the issue.
I'm not alluding to any hanky-panky. That's just my theory of when it's right or wrong to compare un-revised figures to revised figures.

I agree there was no misreporting. I do, however, think it's good practice to throw in the word "revised" if that's what you are doing.
Aussie House Prices blog
Latest post: Real Estate 101 - Lecture 1: Never use the "F" word
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