Oddly enough thats a problem mostly for the rich countries. You don't see a whole lot of people in Sudan jumping off bridges... (Not on purpose anyway)
I guess when you get to the top and look down. You look up and there's nothing. What else is there to do but go to your job and rot in the ground when you're done.
The other thing about these articles is that, while in Ireland just before the crash we had all the papers, articles and studies telling us how great we have it. How we are one of the best in the world. How no one should worry. The people telling us these things were 'study groups' and average numbers. Govt debt was nice and low. Employment was low. We had first home owner boosts for everyone.
Every single newspaper and website read 'Ireland - never been so good' or 'Ireland - looking up up up' and they would mention some random statistic or number that proved we were in the clear for at least 20, 30, 50 years. While on the telly someone from the bank would tell us that we have a slight downturn as to be expected due to the global economy slowing down but it looks ok now. They would sight 'average' numbers instead of median, or say that 'there has been a 56% rise in loans' instead of 'refinancing hits record highs'. And the gold classic 'population growth is 2.6% plenty of demand to keep prices up, supply and demand you know!'. It was all a lie. I listened to them and thought. Ok, news is news is news. They would tell me if it looked like something bad was happening. Me and so many many others were so so wrong. At first a couple of people lost a job here or there. Then one bank made a slight loss. Rents started going up and fast to cover repayments because price became detached from value was out stripping yield to quickly. After I went from having 7 properties in a high paying job to 1 property that's now worth half what it was.
On the news and current affairs stories all had interviews with people who had lost everything. Their business, homes, retirement funds. The lot. It was heartbreaking to watch one after the other people crying after the bank pulled their loans and put their properties on the market at half what they paid. And of course they couldn't buy them back because they now had bad credit so they just moved home with parents who managed to pay down debt on their houses. After the crash in hindsight economists who let the government know about the unsustainable growth projected it in black and white years before it happened. Instead of listening to them like you would a doctor or and engineer they simply listened to the group that shouted the most that everything was looking up which was always the agencies and banks telling us buy buy buy. Much like your rewia, hia, bank studies all saying all signs point to yes but they mess around with the scales and stats and base points to only ever show they were always looking up. We paid dearly for it while the people who already had the most simply bought even more of what little we had left over. And now its happening here.
PLEASE READ THE BELOW
Its when you are sitting at home and you are looking at a piece of paper on your table at 2am. Its fresh. Crisp, Neatly folded in 2 places so the top third and bottom third are slightly angled up. The letter head, bank logo top right and address block top left, looks like eyes and you stare at it. The text doesn't matter because you read it a hundred times. You know what it says. They are taking your home and your livelihood. The years you put in are owned by the bank and you never had a cent to start with. There is nothing you can do. The light is dim and you notice the sound of rain drops but realize its not raining. Its your tears falling into the paper monsters mouth. Its hungry and it doesn't feed on compassion. You were a slave and you never knew it.
That was from my brothers suicide note. He was bright, bubbly and loved helping people as a brickie. He left his wife and two daughters and his life insurance paid for their debt. Every time I hear a bull and an article funded by banks and promoted by statistic institutes set up by real estate companies it makes me sad that somewhere, one Aussie will read it and think 9x his income is fine, 65% gross income at 97% LVR with low 3.75% cash rate is manageable and will never rise and that something that takes 3 months and 1 years wages in materials somehow equates to 25+ years of most of your income is 'just the way it is'. I get sad because I know one of them wont have the support and tools like my brother did to handle whats about to happen and they will do something drastic. Please please please think before you buy. 3x your income for the house value or 33% your income in loan repayments which ever is lowest at 8-9% interest with a full 20% down.
I guess when you get to the top and look down. You look up and there's nothing. What else is there to do but go to your job and rot in the ground when you're done.
The other thing about these articles is that, while in Ireland just before the crash we had all the papers, articles and studies telling us how great we have it. How we are one of the best in the world. How no one should worry. The people telling us these things were 'study groups' and average numbers. Govt debt was nice and low. Employment was low. We had first home owner boosts for everyone.
Every single newspaper and website read 'Ireland - never been so good' or 'Ireland - looking up up up' and they would mention some random statistic or number that proved we were in the clear for at least 20, 30, 50 years. While on the telly someone from the bank would tell us that we have a slight downturn as to be expected due to the global economy slowing down but it looks ok now. They would sight 'average' numbers instead of median, or say that 'there has been a 56% rise in loans' instead of 'refinancing hits record highs'. And the gold classic 'population growth is 2.6% plenty of demand to keep prices up, supply and demand you know!'. It was all a lie. I listened to them and thought. Ok, news is news is news. They would tell me if it looked like something bad was happening. Me and so many many others were so so wrong. At first a couple of people lost a job here or there. Then one bank made a slight loss. Rents started going up and fast to cover repayments because price became detached from value was out stripping yield to quickly. After I went from having 7 properties in a high paying job to 1 property that's now worth half what it was.
On the news and current affairs stories all had interviews with people who had lost everything. Their business, homes, retirement funds. The lot. It was heartbreaking to watch one after the other people crying after the bank pulled their loans and put their properties on the market at half what they paid. And of course they couldn't buy them back because they now had bad credit so they just moved home with parents who managed to pay down debt on their houses. After the crash in hindsight economists who let the government know about the unsustainable growth projected it in black and white years before it happened. Instead of listening to them like you would a doctor or and engineer they simply listened to the group that shouted the most that everything was looking up which was always the agencies and banks telling us buy buy buy. Much like your rewia, hia, bank studies all saying all signs point to yes but they mess around with the scales and stats and base points to only ever show they were always looking up. We paid dearly for it while the people who already had the most simply bought even more of what little we had left over. And now its happening here.
PLEASE READ THE BELOW
Its when you are sitting at home and you are looking at a piece of paper on your table at 2am. Its fresh. Crisp, Neatly folded in 2 places so the top third and bottom third are slightly angled up. The letter head, bank logo top right and address block top left, looks like eyes and you stare at it. The text doesn't matter because you read it a hundred times. You know what it says. They are taking your home and your livelihood. The years you put in are owned by the bank and you never had a cent to start with. There is nothing you can do. The light is dim and you notice the sound of rain drops but realize its not raining. Its your tears falling into the paper monsters mouth. Its hungry and it doesn't feed on compassion. You were a slave and you never knew it.
That was from my brothers suicide note. He was bright, bubbly and loved helping people as a brickie. He left his wife and two daughters and his life insurance paid for their debt. Every time I hear a bull and an article funded by banks and promoted by statistic institutes set up by real estate companies it makes me sad that somewhere, one Aussie will read it and think 9x his income is fine, 65% gross income at 97% LVR with low 3.75% cash rate is manageable and will never rise and that something that takes 3 months and 1 years wages in materials somehow equates to 25+ years of most of your income is 'just the way it is'. I get sad because I know one of them wont have the support and tools like my brother did to handle whats about to happen and they will do something drastic. Please please please think before you buy. 3x your income for the house value or 33% your income in loan repayments which ever is lowest at 8-9% interest with a full 20% down.
Thats a pretty awful story. Ireland and the US have had their fair share of heartbreaking stories. I really hope this doesn't happen in Australia.
And as they say, hindsight is 20/20. But its pretty much impossible to predict the future of house prices. I cant think of anyone who has been consistently correct.
I think its fair to say that everyone on this forum is a bit unsure about house prices although we all hope it will go one way or the other. Because if we knew, we wouldn't be here.
The average American family lost 38.8 percent of its wealth from 2007 to 2010, with the biggest losses concentrated among households with the most assets tied to their homes, a Federal Reserve study shows.
Median net worth declined to $77,300 in 2010, an 18-year low, from $126,400 in 2007, the central bank said in its Survey of Consumer Finances. Mean net worth fell 14.7 percent to a nine-year low of $498,800 from $584,600, the central bank said today in Washington.
“The impact has been a massive destruction of wealth all across the board,” said Lance Roberts, who oversees $500 million as chief executive officer of Streettalk Advisors LLC in Houston. “What you see is an economy that’s really very, very stressed for the bottom 60 to 70 percent of the population that’s struggling just to make ends meet.”
The declines in household wealth in the course of the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression have held back the consumer spending that makes up about 70 percent of the economy. Fed policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke meet next week to consider whether the central bank needs to add to its record stimulus after employment grew at the slowest pace in a year in May.
The Fed has already taken unprecedented steps to boost the economy as it battled the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009, slashing its key interest rate almost to zero and purchasing $2.3 trillion in debt to lower long-term borrowing costs. Even so, the jobless rate has stayed above 8 percent since February 2009, compared with the central bank’s long-range goal of 4.9 percent to 6 percent. Housing Collapse
“Although declines in the values of financial assets or business were important factors for some families, the decreases in median net worth appear to have been driven most strongly by a broad collapse in house prices,” Fed economists wrote in the report released today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index fell 23 percent in the three years through December 2010. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) lost 14 percent in the same period.
Fed economists conduct the surveys every three years to produce a snapshot of household balance sheets, pensions, income, and demographics that’s more detailed than broader reports about the economy. The surveys allow comparisons over time, with a consistent methodology since 1989. Wage Dependence
Declines in average income were greatest in the wealthiest 10 percent families and for higher education or wealth groups, the survey showed. The housing slump and financial crisis also boosted the dependence on wages as a percentile of net worth for the wealthiest 10 percent.
The top 10 percent by wealth got 55.8 percent of their pre- tax family income from wages in 2010, up from 46.2 percent in 2007, the survey found. The portion earned from capital gains plunged to 2.3 percent from 14.4 percent.
Debt as a share of family assets rose to 16.4 percent from 14.8 percent as asset values declined, the Fed said. For those households with debt in 2010, the median value of debt was unchanged from 2007, while the share of families having debt fell to about 75 percent from 77 percent. Debt payments more than 60 days overdue were reported by 10.8 percent of families in 2010, up from 7.1 percent in the prior survey.
“Measures of debt payments relative to income might have been expected to increase,” Fed economists wrote. “In fact, total payments relative to total income increased only slightly, and the median of payments relative to income among families with debt fell after having risen between 2004 and 2007. The share of families with high payments relative to their incomes also fell after rising substantially between 2001 and 2007.”
The survey was compiled by Fed economists Jesse Bricker, Arthur Kennickell, Kevin Moore and John Sabelhaus in Washington. All dollar figures are expressed in 2010 dollars.
If the electorate focuses on the economy as it votes at the Federal election on September 14, the Labor Party should win.
An era of rising wealth, sustained solid growth, near full employment and on-going lift in living standards are the material that should get an incumbent reelected.
While it is political poison to say to the general population, “you’ve never had it so good”, the cold, hard macroeconomic facts on the economy, real wages growth, wealth and incomes suggests Australians have never been richer, never been better off.
At a macroeconomic level, the economy grew by a healthy 3.1 percent through 2012, while annual inflation ended the year at 2.2 percent, in the lower half of the Reserve Bank’s target band. Right through 2012, the unemployment rate was low, holding between 5 and 5.5 percent which in fact locks in a decade where Australia’s unemployment rate has been below 6 percent. This is a remarkable achievement given global events, the near depression in the developed world and the substantial structural changes that have occurred in the local economy.
While there is nothing particularly spectacular about 3.1 percent GDP growth, 2.2 percent inflation or the unemployment holding at 5.5 percent or below, to have them occurring simultaneously is rare.
Australia’s economic history has many examples where GDP growth has been well above 3 percent, but this has normally seen inflation rise, which eats away at real incomes and forces interest rates higher. Similarly, there are many episodes where the annual inflation rate has been 2.2 percent or lower, but this has usually occurred when the unemployment rate is high and rising. To have this trifecta of excellent macroeconomic news owes a lot to the economic management of the economy and is something that is overlooked by an electorate that seems to be preoccupied with boat people, the marginal hip-pocket impact of the carbon price, the trivial levels of government debt and other ephemeral issues.
Looked at another way, there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that whoever wins the election in September, they would be delighted to lock in a further three years where the macroeconomic numbers we have before us now are repeated each and every year of their term of office.
Frankly, it is just about impossible to do any better.
Having said that, it is clear that not everyone is sharing the benefits of the purple patch for the Australian economy. There are regions, industries and individuals that are not sharing the good times that the strong economy is delivering.
Such unevenness is inevitable whether the economy is strong or weak, but it is important to emphasise that it is not the job of the RBA to set interest rates for Tasmania or manufacturing, for example, or for the government to spend too much money propping up industries that are succumbing to the reality of extinction due to high costs, inefficiency or some other factor outside the government control.
Where the government can and should help, and this is where the current government has done well, is to provide a framework that provides a safety net for the sectors, businesses and individuals who are hurting as the rest of the economy powers ahead.
The mining tax raised revenue to boost superannuation for those not directly involved in the boom sectors. Retraining, skills and even some financial support is allocated to individuals who lose their jobs as the sectors they work in shrink. Maintaining a strong overall economy will also see job opportunities show up in the sectors in the fast lane expand.
For all of the thousands of jobs lost in recent years in Qantas, Boral, the banks, the steel and aluminum firms, Santos, Holden, Toyota and Caltex, to name a few, there are 850,000 more people employed today than there were five years ago. Presumably the bulk of the people who were proverbially “thrown on to the unemployment scrap heap” have been re-engaged elsewhere in the workforce.
On an individual level, the recent sharp rise in share prices and the resumption of what appears to be solid growth in house prices is good news for the bulk of the electorate. From the low point in 2012, the market value of the ASX 200 stock index has risen by close to $350 billion, including dividends, which will be a nice boost to retirees and those with a superannuation fund.
The rise in house prices has added around $125 billion to the wealth of residential property holders in the last three months alone. This should be pleasing to the two-thirds of the population that own a house.
Having a job, rising wealth and rising real wages is good news and cannot be due to simple dumb luck. Generally prudent monetary policy and use of fiscal policy in a counter-cyclical way has underpinned the current economic strength.
The polls are showing that the Coalition will romp in at the election in September, even though the mix of hard economic news has rarely, if ever, been better.
While other countries fell into the global recession, Australia maintained strong economic growth, low government debt and a triple-A credit rating. With this record, you might expect the federal election to be focused on how to convert the strength of today's economy into resilience for the future. But instead the political spotlight has fallen on the perceived problem of government debt, with alarming proposals to bring austerity ''down under''.
For an American, Australia's anxiety about deficit and debt is a little amusing. Australia's budget deficit is less than half that of the US and its net debt is less than an eighth of the country's gross domestic product.
Most countries would envy Australia's economy. During the global recession, Kevin Rudd's government implemented one of the strongest Keynesian stimulus packages in the world. That package was delivered early, with cash grants that could be spent quickly followed by longer-term investments that buoyed confidence and activity over time. In many other countries, stimulus was too small and arrived too late, after jobs and confidence were already lost.
In Australia the stimulus helped avoid a recession and saved up to 200,000 jobs. And new research shows that stimulus may have also actually reduced government debt over time. Evidence from the crisis suggests that, when the economy is weak, the long-run tax revenue benefits of keeping businesses afloat and people in work can be greater than the short-run expenditure on stimulus measures. That means that a well-targeted fiscal stimulus might actually reduce public debt in the long run.
Australia may have successfully dodged the global crisis, but some politicians seem to have missed the lessons it taught the rest of the world. In this election, the conservative side of politics has foreshadowed substantial cuts to the government budget. This would be a grave mistake, especially now.
Recent experience around the world suggests that austerity can have devastating consequences, and especially so for fragile economies. Government cuts have helped push Britain, Spain and Greece's economies deeper into recession and led to widespread public misery.
The youth unemployment rate in Spain is above 50 per cent and the figure for Greece is above 60 per cent. Their tragic experience should be a warning to the world. But even seemingly healthy Germany was pushed into a recession from which it is just now emerging - but it is an economy that is still weaker than it was before taking the "dose" of austerity.
Proponents of austerity ignore the fact that national debt is only one side of a country's balance sheet. We have to look at assets - investments - as well as liabilities. Cutting back on high-return investments just to reduce the deficit is misguided. If we are concerned with long-run prosperity, then focusing on debt alone is particularly foolish because the higher growth resulting from these public investments will generate more tax revenue and help to improve the long-term fiscal position.
I believe things are incredibly good for us at the moment - im absolutely blown away with how much food we are able to buy for so little money when an effort is made. From what i can tell the only time i get ripped off is in situations which are out of my control by local labor force - which feeds back to the fact that wages are high in the lucky country. I honestly don't remember having things this good but i am cautious with expenditure. If someone wants to piss up money in CBD restaurants 5 nights a week it wouldn't surprise me if things have never been 'this bad' for them given the high wages here though
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
I believe things are incredibly good for us at the moment - im absolutely blown away with how much food we are able to buy for so little money when an effort is made. From what i can tell the only time i get ripped off is in situations which are out of my control by local labor force - which feeds back to the fact that wages are high in the lucky country. I honestly don't remember having things this good but i am cautious with expenditure. If someone wants to piss up money in CBD restaurants 5 nights a week it wouldn't surprise me if things have never been 'this bad' for them given the high wages here though
The question is for how much longer this can go on. We may discover more mineral resource to sell although one would expect, given the level of technology and funding that has been applied to this enterprise in the last few decades, that the rate of discovery will slow markedly in future. So we do have a limited range of resource projects left to flog off. Estimates from various sources suggest the degree of foreign ownership of mining resources is now over 80%. I saw a figure of 86% which, logically, may well be correct. This would seem to indicate that you might not have as long a time to wait for the day of reckoning as I have already waited.
Any nation with a continuous CAD stretching over 50 years (bar one) would end up with the rest of the world holding mountains of their currency and not wanting any more of the bits of useless paper, unless they can buy assets of great future value in the CAD country. So while individuals don’t sell their houses, as a nation, we have been selling our industries, mines and rural land for the last 55 years. So we get to keep our over-priced houses but we sell everything else that is income producing!!!!!
We’re starting to promote selling rural land and other rural assets as a great source of foreign funds. Well yes maybe! However as I’ve said if we sell Graincorp for $3.6 that keeps us financed in the external account for about 5 weeks or thereabouts (assuming a CAD of about 35 to 40B). We sold a large swag of some of WA’s best farmland complete with infrastructure and even port facilities for $150M, which keeps us financed for what…36 hours?
We certainly seem to be in some sort of closing wedge on this issue and SEEM to be running out of stuff to flog. So hopefully you are right about a day of reckoning coming soon enough. I’m just bloody old and I’ve ranted and raved, and waited, for a virtual lifetime on this issue. So I treat my own judgement of timing on the issue with a great deal of skepticism.
Just a note to be clear. As we bring more and more people here, without having industry to employ them productively, then the CAD will rise and this problem will simply get worse. Further we are almost certainly in the midst of something of a serious decline in our ToT. While this is going on we can expect a reasonably rapid increase in repatriation of dividends overseas in the next few years. So I’d be expecting our CAD to head northwards of the $60 to $70 Billion we were at before the boom in minerals pricing.
In the possible absence of sufficient assets remaining to sell we will likely suffer massive decline in our exchange rate and a funding crisis in the external account account, sooner or later. This would result in interest rate increases that would make the the sort of interest rate increases that most of us would contemplate at the moment seem miniscule.
This is all sure as night follows day. No modern theory about printing money can alter it. My only point was that after five decades of waiting for someone somewhere in power to do the right thing I know that is not going to happen. So we will wait until this is all forced on us with all the disastrous consequences for our economy and, MORE IMPORTANTLY, our social fabric.
It’s a question of when.
I am also of the opinion that we face decades of increasing inflation which may again bring about increases in nominal rates. I’d guess the (my list of derogatory adjectives got too long to include) RBA will attempt to make RAT interest rates even more negative in those circumstances. Can we make house prices grow faster in those circumstances?
The question is for how much longer this can go on. We may discover more mineral resource to sell although one would expect, given the level of technology and funding that has been applied to this enterprise in the last few decades, that the rate of discovery will slow markedly in future. So we do have a limited range of resource projects left to flog off. Estimates from various sources suggest the degree of foreign ownership of mining resources is now over 80%. I saw a figure of 86% which, logically, may well be correct. This would seem to indicate that you might not have as long a time to wait for the day of reckoning as I have already waited.
Any nation with a continuous CAD stretching over 50 years (bar one) would end up with the rest of the world holding mountains of their currency and not wanting any more of the bits of useless paper, unless they can buy assets of great future value in the CAD country. So while individuals don’t sell their houses, as a nation, we have been selling our industries, mines and rural land for the last 55 years. So we get to keep our over-priced houses but we sell everything else that is income producing!!!!!
We’re starting to promote selling rural land and other rural assets as a great source of foreign funds. Well yes maybe! However as I’ve said if we sell Graincorp for $3.6 that keeps us financed in the external account for about 5 weeks or thereabouts (assuming a CAD of about 35 to 40B). We sold a large swag of some of WA’s best farmland complete with infrastructure and even port facilities for $150M, which keeps us financed for what…36 hours?
We certainly seem to be in some sort of closing wedge on this issue and SEEM to be running out of stuff to flog. So hopefully you are right about a day of reckoning coming soon enough. I’m just bloody old and I’ve ranted and raved, and waited, for a virtual lifetime on this issue. So I treat my own judgement of timing on the issue with a great deal of skepticism.
Just a note to be clear. As we bring more and more people here, without having industry to employ them productively, then the CAD will rise and this problem will simply get worse. Further we are almost certainly in the midst of something of a serious decline in our ToT. While this is going on we can expect a reasonably rapid increase in repatriation of dividends overseas in the next few years. So I’d be expecting our CAD to head northwards of the $60 to $70 Billion we were at before the boom in minerals pricing.
In the possible absence of sufficient assets remaining to sell we will likely suffer massive decline in our exchange rate and a funding crisis in the external account account, sooner or later. This would result in interest rate increases that would make the the sort of interest rate increases that most of us would contemplate at the moment seem miniscule.
This is all sure as night follows day. No modern theory about printing money can alter it. My only point was that after five decades of waiting for someone somewhere in power to do the right thing I know that is not going to happen. So we will wait until this is all forced on us with all the disastrous consequences for our economy and, MORE IMPORTANTLY, our social fabric.
It’s a question of when.
I am also of the opinion that we face decades of increasing inflation which may again bring about increases in nominal rates. I’d guess the (my list of derogatory adjectives got too long to include) RBA will attempt to make RAT interest rates even more negative in those circumstances. Can we make house prices grow faster in those circumstances?
thanks for that - it's really given everyone something to think about. My gut feeling (and it is only a gut feeling) is also that we are at a point in time where we will do absolutely anything to avoid a recession even if it's not in our long term interest. From what i can tell this way of doing things has really ramped since the onset of the GFC.
Having said that, the same gut tells me we aren't there yet and champagne will be served if deemed necessary until the end by the states, federal and RBA. I am fairly positive on the near term though and Glenn appears to be aware of the importance of keeping at least some industry in house. The recent murmuring of the 'shift from mining to housing' is pretty big stuff and isn't getting enough airplay in my view.
Thanks again for the reply. It would be great if you joined the forum but i suspect i might know why you might choose not to
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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