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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,431 Views)
Trojan
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 08:07 PM
btw.. here is a link thanks to Hobo-Jo
Lol, thats the guy who refused to donate $100 to the charity I nominated after he lost a bet on house prices.
:hubba:
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Rastus2
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Trojan
2 Feb 2012, 08:22 PM
Lol, thats the guy who refused to donate $100 to the charity I nominated after he lost a bet on house prices.
:hubba:


yes, well done Trojan.

Now did you get any other facts from the post ?

Like the fact that Shadow's prediction has been going on since 2008 when it was originally 1.25M ?
:rolleyes:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trojan
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 08:26 PM


yes, well done Trojan.

Now did you get any other facts from the post ?

Like the fact that Shadow's prediction has been going on since 2008 when it was originally 1.25M ?
:rolleyes:
Good try but I'm not getting involved in the slagging matches between you and Shadow.
I normally skip those posts by you and Shadow but this particular one caught my eye.
Thanks for finding the guy who owes me $100 ($106 including interest) :cool:
Edited by Trojan, 2 Feb 2012, 08:35 PM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Rastus2
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Trojan
2 Feb 2012, 08:31 PM
Good try but I'm not getting involved in the slagging matches between you and Shadow.
I normally skip those posts by you and Shadow but this particular one caught my eye.
Thanks for finding the guy who owes me $100 ($106 including interest) :cool:

yes, I see... no comment on shadow's obvious multiple versions of his same prediction, but keen to dump on a bear when you get the chance.

very balanced indeed... carry on.

btw. he was not hiding... his name has not changed since he went to sommersoft ages ago.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 08:07 PM
prediction, simply based on extrapolating the median price lines against the trendlines
What you have there is a preliminary prediction simply based on extrapolating a trend line. Obviously extrapolating a trend line is insufficient basis for a final prediction. The final prediction taking all fundamental factors into consideration was for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by 2015 (exact day in 2015 unspecified).

Quote:
 
thanks to Hobo-Jo
LOL, thanks for that one. Hobo-jo is a guy who is famous for welching on house price bets - he's made a name for himself with his failure to honour his past agreements. He also insists APF is a 'troll forum' and that everyone who posts here (including you Rastus) is just a sockpuppet of the evil troll master (i.e. me). But funny enough it seems he is an avid reader of APF himself, and is following the discussions here closely (as do I suspect many of the bears who claim to hate APF, but probably quietly browse the site every day).

Hi hobo-jo... you just can't keep away can you? :laugh:
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 08:47 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Trojan
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 08:40 PM

yes, I see... no comment on shadow's obvious multiple versions of his same prediction, but keen to dump on a bear when you get the chance.

very balanced indeed... carry on.
You really need to chill - I think this vendetta with Shadow is getting to you.
In case you haven't noticed, most people on this forum decided to stay out of your bitch fight with Shadow.
Edited by Trojan, 2 Feb 2012, 08:55 PM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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earthsta
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 08:45 PM


LOL, thanks for that one. Hobo-jo is a guy who is famous for welching on house price bets - he's made a name for himself with his failure to honour his past agreements.
Yes.

You, on the other hand, will be famous for not having the balls to admit what you said and for trying to squirm you're way out of a prediction

14.5% pa for the next three years. Good luck :D
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
2 Feb 2012, 09:29 PM
Yes.

You, on the other hand, will be famous for not having the balls to admit what you said and for trying to squirm you're way out of a prediction

14.5% pa for the next three years. Good luck :D
Au contrair, mon ami. I always admit when my predictions are incorrect.

This one still has almost four years to play out.

Four years of 10% per annum average growth.

Sydney house prices to approach $1M by 2015.

Enjoy.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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barns
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earthsta
2 Feb 2012, 03:28 PM
Here's an even better one from Shadow, now predicting Sydney house prices to hit a million BEFORE 2015 :lol:

Posted Image
OMG - you don't really have your savings in Suncorp do you? And you call property investment risky...

Also, you use Bing. Who does that?
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 08:45 PM
What you have there is a preliminary prediction simply based on extrapolating a trend line.
Oh so the fact you used the word 'prediction' in 2008 does not make it a prediction.


in that case, all of Keen's predictions were preliminary as well.. much the same as yourself, he is just waiting for more detailed data to make his final predictions... not long to wait now.

there we go, that seems to be an even playing field.

Glad we cleared that up... you can delete that silly list you cling on to of keen's preliminary predictions then and we can move right along.

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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