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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,432 Views)
Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 10:43 AM
Simplest method is the one I suggested and agreed to by Dave in post 46 - i.e. will the 2015 price be higher or lower than the current price of $656,192.

you had better lock in the details Dave290,

this one wriggles and squirms with history to twist history ... this is the 3rd of 4th version of his great prediction. :rolleyes:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 02:46 PM
No specific date or price was committed to. The prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015.

which prediction are you talking about now ?

version 1, (by 2015, ie. to have achieve it's goal prior to 2015 starting) approaching 1M
version 2, by June 2015 , $975k
or version 3 or by the end of 2015 with a reduced amount of $966k,

or Version 4 (your new bet).. end of 2015, with it being closer to 1M than dave's guess ?

There have been far too many revisions in your mind of history to know what you are babbling about now.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 04:55 PM
are you blind
Is your grasp of English that bad
just plain silly
complete bastard
you have been proven a failure
you are babbling
Again with all the anger and abuse. What is getting into you bears these days?

The success of BP's tipping point call really seems to have gotten some people here rattled.

The links posted by yourself and Earthsta just confirm what I have always said - i.e. that the prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015 (exact day never specified). From the current Residex value of approx $660K, that will require approx 10% average growth per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 05:04 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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zaph
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 05:02 PM

which prediction are you talking about now ?

version 1, (by 2015, ie. to have achieve it's goal prior to 2015 starting) approaching 1M
version 2, by June 2015 , $975k
or version 3 or by the end of 2015 with a reduced amount of $966k,

or Version 4 (your new bet).. end of 2015, with it being closer to 1M than dave's guess ?

There have been far too many revisions in your mind of history to know what you are babbling about now.
IMO predictions like this are rarely made in one post with a full set of #'s, *'s and ^'s as terms and conditions. they are usually refined over a number of posts or threads, it's four years away so no great rush to define, not like i say BHP shares will be approaching 200 a share by the weekend.

so in summary, what the prediction is far:
1. Sydney house prices will approach 1m by the end of 2015.
2. Residex will be the judge. (do we need a clause in the contract about what happens if residex is no longer reporting, or is that force majeure?)
3. 975k will be clearly defined as 'approaching', anything less is open to debate.

anything else?
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kennyjaiz
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It is probably just me, but all the different "versions" are relatively consistent interpretation of the prediction statement of "Sydney house prices to approach $1M by 2015".

The measure is "Residex"
The property type is "Houses"
The area in scope is "Sydney" as a major city (not postcode 2000)
The timing is "sometime in 2015". Granted "by 2015" could be interpreted as on or before 23:59:59 31/12/2014, but Shadow clarified the intended date is anywhere from 1st Jan to 31st Dec of 2015.
The price is "approaching $1 million", the couple of examples/interpretations Shadow provided were $975k and $966k, which indicates over 950K or thereabouts.
The currency is "aud"

As shadow mentioned, the prediction was intended to be vague.

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Rastus2
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kennyjaiz
2 Feb 2012, 05:38 PM
It is probably just me, but all the different "versions" are relatively consistent interpretation of the prediction statement of "Sydney house prices to approach $1M by 2015".

The measure is "Residex"
The property type is "Houses"
The area in scope is "Sydney" as a major city (not postcode 2000)
The timing is "sometime in 2015". Granted "by 2015" could be interpreted as on or before 23:59:59 31/12/2014, but Shadow clarified the intended date is anywhere from 1st Jan to 31st Dec of 2015.
The price is "approaching $1 million", the couple of examples/interpretations Shadow provided were $975k and $966k, which indicates over 950K or thereabouts.
The currency is "aud"

As shadow mentioned, the prediction was intended to be vague.


shadow 'clarified' his date range after he made the initial prediction. His first prediction was not vague, it was 'by 2015'. That is not vague at all.

I do not deny that he has made multiple versions of that same prediciton... that is why I cited the 3 versions.. Shadow is the one denying that he gave any details of a date (although his 2nd version had June 2015) and that the word 'by' is the same as the words 'by the end of' when making reference to years.

That makes his 1st prediction altered to his 2nd and then altered to his 3rd does it not ?

As for your other stuff... so what ? that is not in question.

a prediction by a certain date should be kept at that... allowing another year extension to a 4 year prediction gives an extra 20 - 25% time for that prediction to eventuate...

Do you think keen would have been let off he is had 'clarified' what he meant was some time in the next two, three, four years ?

My point is, when Shadow demands Keen to be exact with his timings of his predictions before they are called failed, then shadow should be held to that same standard instead of squirming around with different versions of the same prediction.
For goodness sake, take a look at the thread where Shadow was critical of keen... there was no margin of error allowed. From memory keen predicted a chart to hit 165 or there abouts, it managed to get what looks like 158 or more, but this was called a failure by shadow.. where was the latitude for being reasonable with close enough there ?

So Is it unreasonable that I point out shadows versions of the same prediction ? I think not.

anyway.. .enough.. his 3rd prediction may indeed eventuate... the other 2 seem to have been abandoned at the orphanage.
Edited by Rastus2, 2 Feb 2012, 06:24 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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zaph
2 Feb 2012, 05:23 PM
IMO predictions like this are rarely made in one post with a full set of #'s, *'s and ^'s as terms and conditions. they are usually refined over a number of posts or threads, it's four years away so no great rush to define, not like i say BHP shares will be approaching 200 a share by the weekend.

so in summary, what the prediction is far:
1. Sydney house prices will approach 1m by the end of 2015.
2. Residex will be the judge. (do we need a clause in the contract about what happens if residex is no longer reporting, or is that force majeure?)
3. 975k will be clearly defined as 'approaching', anything less is open to debate.

anything else?

yes, that is why there were 3 versions of that prediction... as time went on, shadow kept chaing the details to give himself more time and lower the value.

His new prediction sounds like the details you cited, yes.

His previous versions are on record the way I cited them despite shadows cries of 'i didn't say that'

Just for the record, how many versions of a prediction do you think I can make over the next 2 years before I am told I failed ?

Are we even on the same page here for what defines a prediction such as what Shadow said way back in Jan of 2010 ?

Are we even on the same page as to the use of the english language with regards to 'by' a certain year and 'by the end' of a certain year ?

If I was to make a prediction today ...

Can I keep extending that same prediction by 6 months then another 6 months and claim I was somehow correct ?
Can I keep adjusting the value of the prediction and claim that I was right ?

Shadow's 3 version of his prediction remind me of Joye claiming he 'nailed it' when his predictions were vague all along and only morphed into detail as we approached an outcome he wanted to claim "As I have been saying all along.... " then finally 'I nailed it".. rather lame really.

Edited by Rastus2, 2 Feb 2012, 06:14 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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earthsta
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM
Thanks Earthsta for confirming what I said. The prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015 (exact day was never specified).

From the current Residex value of approx $660K, that will require approx 10% average growth per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
I was correct....comprehension is not your strong point.

"BY 2015" means by 31/12/2014.

14.5% pa over the next three years

Doesn't really matter anyway. Sydney's chances of putting on 10%pa over the next four years is sweet FA. But good luck with that anyway.

Posted Image
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 06:04 PM
Shadow demands Keen to be exact with his timings of his predictions before they are called failed
Incorrect. I have only ever criticised Keen's predictions after his stated timeframe had passed. In the case of my own prediction, the timeframe has not passed yet, and all my statements have been consistent with my initial statement regarding this prediction - i.e. that the prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015 (exact day unspecified).
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 02:46 PM
No specific date or price was committed to. The prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015.


Shadow
 

2 Feb 2012, 04:30 PM
There is no revision. The prediction has always been for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015 (exact day never specified).


are you sure about that ?

Do you remember this prediction ?

2008:

Quote: Originally Posted by Shadow
I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction, simply based on extrapolating the median price lines against the trendlines, following similar peaks and dips to previous booms...

Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000
Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000


Posted Image

lol

So you have gone from 1.25M to aproaching 1M to 976k to 966k and from between 2014 - 2015 to 'by 2015' to 'by june 2015' to anytime in 2015.

Yes, very solid prediction there...

I apologise, you have not made 1 prediction and changed it 3 times.

You have made 1 prediction and changed it 4 times

btw.. here is a link thanks to Hobo-Jo

edit: oh I just *had* to add Shadow's picture..
Edited by Rastus2, 2 Feb 2012, 08:43 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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