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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,433 Views)
kennyjaiz
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sentsie
2 Feb 2012, 11:40 AM
“…..So who ever is closer, me being 400 k and you being 1 mil…..”

Dave, a couple of questions :
1. Is this nominal number based on the national median dwelling ? OR as per Shadows, ie: based on the Sydney median house price (Residex) ?.
2. The number between $400k and $1 mil is $700,000 and shadow’s number is $656,192, … so which one will be used as the reference ??

It is better to make the definition clear now than busy argueing later in Dec 2015.
Shadow's proposed measure is more reasonable, if they are intending to compare the direction of property price prediction and the magnitude.

Under dave's terms:
Assuming the current Residex baseline number of $656,192.
If by the end of 2015, the index is at $699,999, despite the fact that it has risen ~1.60% compounded over ~4 years, it would have been closer to 400K than it is 1 million.
Dave would have won based on this term, even though the direction of property price forecast was incorrect. Not a valid measure, imo.
Edited by kennyjaiz, 2 Feb 2012, 12:17 PM.
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Joseph
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 10:43 AM
Simplest method is the one I suggested and agreed to by Dave in post 46 - i.e. will the 2015 price be higher or lower than the current price of $656,192.
Oh missed the P.A. part. I think there will probably be a Dave300 joining the forum by that time! and Dave289 will mysteriously vanish!
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Rastus2
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shadow
 

The prediction was always 'approach' $1M by 2015 (day in 2015 not specified).


no, you just wish it was always that. go back and read your own posts again if you don't believe me.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8289452&t=8961158

Shadow's prediciton

Version 1:

Sydney house prices will approach 1M by 2015
although you words
"If you look at it that way, a $1M median house price by 2015 wouldn't be much different, in terms of affordability, to the median house price in 2003."


Version 2:

Sydney house prices will hit 975k by June 2015

Version 3:
Sydney house prices will hit 966k by the end of 2015.


You still have avoided the whole topic of dates, you changed it from
'by' a year (not during that year... an important distinction).
Then you specifically change your prediction to cite June of 2015 and lower your 'approaching 1M' to only 975k, now you claim that you always meant any time in 2015 (thereby giving yourself not just 6 more months, but another 12 monts)... and you lower your target price to $966k.

I think it's time to stop pretending Shady... it's all on record.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Catweasel
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Catweasel laugh. Mouzealots and bear cult argue about meaningless prediction. It better off spend afternoon in casino. At least in casino, odds can a be the defined. In mouse house price fantasy game of a future, it cannot (despite what a snake oil sales the say).
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earthsta
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 07:59 AM
Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 12:44 AM
For historic records:

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8289452&t=8961158

Shadow's prediciton

Version 1:

Sydney house prices will hit 1M by 2015
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).

Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

And might as well put in a reminder that this refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
Once again you're trying to wriggle out of it.

You said
Quote:
 

My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015


This means they need to approach $1m by 31/12/2014. No escape clause

Of course, YOUR definition of "Approach $1M" is now probably $700k :rolleyes:
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Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 02:36 PM
you lower your target price to $966k
No specific date or price was committed to. The prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 02:46 PM
Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 02:36 PM
you lower your target price to $966k
No specific date or price was committed to. The prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015.
Let's get it straight

Posted Image

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earthsta
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Here's an even better one from Shadow, now predicting Sydney house prices to hit a million BEFORE 2015 :lol:

Posted Image
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Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Thanks Earthsta for confirming what I said. The prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015 (exact day was never specified).

From the current Residex value of approx $660K, that will require approx 10% average growth per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM
Thanks Earthsta for confirming what I said. The prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by sometime in 2015 (exact day was never specified).

From the current Residex value of approx $660K, that will require approx 10% average growth per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Nice find Earthy.... I could not be bothered looking back and more..

So Shadow... are you blind ?
Is your grasp of English that bad ?

In the real world, 'I will meet you sometime between 10 and 11 oclock' does not mean I will meet you perhaps at 11:45... but in your world, it does.

You have gone beyond reasonable and into just plain silly with your deflections and history revisions.

On this topic alone you have managed to demonstrate:


The art of Shadow posting.

- The art of many deflections - throw in strawmen and old threads to provide evidence rather than direct links.
- The art of many reflections - throw the front foot out and accuse those who point out errors as being wrong in the past.
- The art of no response 1 - stop posting in that thread completely
- The art of no response 2 - continue posting in the thread as though nothing has been asked but ensure you do not answer those questions at all.
- The art of no response - 3 - reply to the other posters post, but especially avoid that part of the post that has a difficult question.
- The art of "I replied" - just keep repeating, I already replied to that question whenever it is repeated.
- The art of complete bastard - attempt to expose the identity of the person whom is making him feel uncomfortable with all of their questions.
-The art of the circle of Fire - Direct the topic towards a pointless circular argument.
The art of delusion - Claiming you have won a debate even though you have obviously lost (or failed to answer questions repeatedly).
-The art of task master - set the opponent off to do work rather than do it yourself.
-The art of historic revision - Simply twist the truth of what happened during a debate.



Nice work.

so to summarize, I count 3 predictions from you now on the same topic, all revised, and also 1 bet which is a derivative of them.


Even before you have been proven a failure you were backing away from your initial claims.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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