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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,434 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

georgie
2 Feb 2012, 09:54 AM
Thats a bit unfair, you have inflation on your side Shadow. In 2015 you should deduct the inflation and then measure it to the 2012 residex median of $656,192.
If house prices do fall 10% per annum for the next four years, then it's possible Dave will have deflation on his side.

I assume Dave's predicted 10% per annum fall was in nominal terms (my prediction is certainly based on nominal values).
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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dave289
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 10:00 AM
If house prices do fall 10% per annum for the next four years, then it's possible Dave will have deflation on his side.

I assume Dave's predicted 10% per annum fall was in nominal terms (my prediction is certainly based on nominal values).
As shadow mentions we could just as easily have deflation. And we could work out all sorts of rules. But to keep things as simple as possible we should just both have a figure like mentioned earlier , 400k and one mill is what you ,anyway we can sort this out.
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stinkbug
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dave289
2 Feb 2012, 10:14 AM
As shadow mentions we could just as easily have deflation. And we could work out all sorts of rules. But to keep things as simple as possible we should just both have a figure like mentioned earlier , 400k and one mill is what you ,anyway we can sort this out.
I think simply sticking to the figures of $400k and $1M is a great idea, because it's simple and measurable, and not subject to argument later.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Black Panther
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"As each month passes in 2012 it will become more apparent that Q3 2011 was the bottom of the Real Estate down cycle, and that a new up cycle has begun.

This up cycle will be either a normal boom, or a super boom, depending on oversea's circumstances and the Governments tuning of interest rates.

The difference between renting and paying a mortgage will continue to decrease as rents surge strongly due to a lack of investment in Real Estate over the last 2 years.

The stranglers and slow learners in the Bear camp will be routed and capitulate on mass. "


Just adding to my previous prediction now that the data is starting to show that Q3 2011 was the tipping point.

In addition the strong surge in rents in 2012, capital growth will be moderate for the 1st half of 2012, but as the 2nd half of the year travels, capital growth will quicken.

This quickening will develop into a full blown gallop as we enter 2013.

The cultural notion that the majority of people will own a property in Australia will be shattered.
Edited by Black Panther, 2 Feb 2012, 10:25 AM.
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Joseph
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 10:00 AM
If house prices do fall 10% per annum for the next four years, then it's possible Dave will have deflation on his side.

I assume Dave's predicted 10% per annum fall was in nominal terms (my prediction is certainly based on nominal values).
wow, so the bear's can now only commit to a 10% fall in property over the next four years??? barely a storm in a tea cup if you have witnessed the gains in property over the past 20 years.

Come on where is the post-apocalyptic forecasts of 40% crashes in homes and 90% falls in land value.

I thought we had the biggest property bubble "OF ALL TIIIIMEEEEE!!!!"
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

stinkbug
2 Feb 2012, 10:18 AM
I think simply sticking to the figures of $400k and $1M is a great idea, because it's simple and measurable, and not subject to argument later.
Simplest method is the one I suggested and agreed to by Dave in post 46 - i.e. will the 2015 price be higher or lower than the current price of $656,192.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Mr Griffin
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Joseph
2 Feb 2012, 10:25 AM
wow, so the bear's can now only commit to a 10% fall in property over the next four years??? barely a storm in a tea cup if you have witnessed the gains in property over the past 20 years.

Come on where is the post-apocalyptic forecasts of 40% crashes in homes and 90% falls in land value.

I thought we had the biggest property bubble "OF ALL TIIIIMEEEEE!!!!"
The prediction is 10% PER ANNUM for four years, on top of last years falls.

That's pretty close to 40% fall from the top. That is pretty "post-apocalyptic"
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Trojan
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 09:29 AM
Why the anger and abuse? My money is already where my mouth is - invested in multiple Sydney properties. But sure, I'll bet $10,000 on the outcome. You say down 10% per annum, and I say up 10% per annum.

So if the Sydney median house price on 31st December 2015 (as measured by the Residex index) is higher than the current level of $656,192, you will donate $10,000 to a charity of my choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by myself.

Likewise if the median house price on 31st December 2015 is lower than the current level I will donate $10,000 to a charity of your choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by yourself.

Do you agree?
Good luck collecting it Shadow.

I had a similar bet with hobo-jo over at OCAU in 2010 for $100 donated to charity of winner's choice.
He lost but I'm still waiting for him to donate to the charity of my nomination.
Showed his true colors for $100 ...

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8146660&t=8513012
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8161711&t=8513012

This is one area where I have a lot of respect for Steve Keen - He paid up when he lost his bet.
Edited by Trojan, 2 Feb 2012, 11:37 AM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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sentsie
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dave289
2 Feb 2012, 09:43 AM
Fine my me, my only concern is prices will have shit themselves by then and you and the other bulls will be long gone. So you dont get off scott free, and to show you are a man of your word, we should both post 1000 to an account of alex if he agrees. So who ever is closer, me being 400 k and you being 1 mil. Good luck
“…..So who ever is closer, me being 400 k and you being 1 mil…..”

Dave, a couple of questions :
1. Is this nominal number based on the national median dwelling ? OR as per Shadows, ie: based on the Sydney median house price (Residex) ?.
2. The number between $400k and $1 mil is $700,000 and shadow’s number is $656,192, … so which one will be used as the reference ??

It is better to make the definition clear now than busy argueing later in Dec 2015.
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Trojan
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sentsie
2 Feb 2012, 11:40 AM
“…..So who ever is closer, me being 400 k and you being 1 mil…..”

Dave, a couple of questions :
1. Is this nominal number based on the national median dwelling ? OR as per Shadows, ie: based on the Sydney median house price (Residex) ?.
2. The number between $400k and $1 mil is $700,000 and shadow’s number is $656,192, … so which one will be used as the reference ??

It is better to make the definition clear now than busy argueing later in Dec 2015.
Agreed its better to clarify now than later.
I also think this should have its own thread.

That said, 4 years is way too long. I suspect the loser would disappear before the end of 2015
Edited by Trojan, 2 Feb 2012, 11:51 AM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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