Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 15
2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,435 Views)
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 08:40 AM
we all know you know your original prediction was too much and have quietly modified it down ever since
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified). Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. This refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 08:49 AM
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified). Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. This refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.

Don't get your panties in a twist shadow.

it does not matter how many times you keep repeating your claim, it does not make it a fact


I have shown quotes with dates of 3 version of your prediction...

You keep modifying your prediction, but oddly, history does not actually change in the real world.


oh, and 'by' a time or date means it will be done 'by' that date, not sometime after that date/time has already been hit.
For someone who claims to be so careful in what they post I would have thought you would use your words more carefully for a prediction. I think you are just squirming.

I thought you had a good grasp of English shadow.
Edited by Rastus2, 2 Feb 2012, 08:59 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 08:58 AM
You keep modifying your prediction, but oddly, history does not actually change in the real world.
The prediction was always 'approach' $1M by 2015 (day in 2015 not specified).
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
dave289
Member Avatar


dave289
2 Feb 2012, 08:27 AM
I would be more than happy to place money on it preferably for a childrens charity but firstly I doubt you pay up and secondly I doubt you will be able to afford it by then.if this could be worked out suggestions welcome.
So are you prepared to back up your claims and put your money where your mouth is. We could both post money to an account perhaps with alex , he can present the winnings to childrens hospital on behalf of forum and I will pay to fly him there and back wheather I win or lose. Common put your money where your big jibbering mouth is for once, lets see how much confidence you have in your prediction. Time to prove yourself shadow.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

dave289
2 Feb 2012, 09:21 AM
put your money where your big jibbering mouth is
Why the anger and abuse? My money is already where my mouth is - invested in multiple Sydney properties. But sure, I'll bet $10,000 on the outcome. You say down 10% per annum, and I say up 10% per annum.

So if the Sydney median house price on 31st December 2015 (as measured by the Residex index) is higher than the current level of $656,192, you will donate $10,000 to a charity of my choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by myself.

Likewise if the median house price on 31st December 2015 is lower than the current level I will donate $10,000 to a charity of your choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by yourself.

Do you agree?
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 09:39 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
dave289
Member Avatar


Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 09:29 AM
Why the anger and abuse? My money is already where my mouth is - invested in multiple Sydney properties. But sure, I'll bet $10,000 on the outcome. You say down 10% per annum and I say up 10% per annum.

So if the Sydney median house price on 31st December 2015 (as measured by the Residex index) is higher than current levels, you will donate the money to a charity of my choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by myself. Likewise if the median house price is lower on 31st December 2015 I will donate the money to a charity of your choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by yourself.


Do you agree?
Fine my me, my only concern is prices will have shit themselves by then and you and the other bulls will be long gone. So you dont get off scott free, and to show you are a man of your word, we should both post 1000 to an account of alex if he agrees. So who ever is closer, me being 400 k and you being 1 mil. Good luck
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

dave289
2 Feb 2012, 09:43 AM
Fine my me, my only concern is prices will have shit themselves by then and you and the other bulls will be long gone. So you dont get off scott free, and to show you are a man of your word, we should both post 1000 to an account of alex if he agrees. So who ever is closer, me being 400 k and you being 1 mil. Good luck
I'm staying out of it. :)
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
georgie
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 09:29 AM
Why the anger and abuse? My money is already where my mouth is - invested in multiple Sydney properties. But sure, I'll bet $10,000 on the outcome. You say down 10% per annum, and I say up 10% per annum.

So if the Sydney median house price on 31st December 2015 (as measured by the Residex index) is higher than the current level of $656,192, you will donate $10,000 to a charity of my choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by myself.

Likewise if the median house price on 31st December 2015 is lower than the current level I will donate $10,000 to a charity of your choosing, and post a scanned copy of the donation receipt here along with contact details for the charity so the donation can be verified by yourself.

Do you agree?
Thats a bit unfair, you have inflation on your side Shadow. In 2015 you should deduct the inflation and then measure it to the 2012 residex median of $656,192.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


georgie
2 Feb 2012, 09:54 AM
Thats a bit unfair, you have inflation on your side ...
So do property owners and investors...
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
dave289
Member Avatar


Alex Barton
2 Feb 2012, 09:46 AM
I'm staying out of it. :)
Just think of the exposure the forum gets when you are photographed presenting 10,000 to the the childrens hospital at randwick. Not to mention , a huge hit with the ladies. Come on alex, have little think about it, its still years down thr track .We can sort of folllow it and it will be a bit of fun for the forum. Its all for a good cause annd you can take full credit because if you did not create this forum this money would not be going to a good cause. Just have a little think about it alex, there a lot of positives to be had here for little effort, all the best , dave.
Edited by dave289, 2 Feb 2012, 10:02 AM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
ZetaBoards gives you all the tools to create a successful discussion community.
Learn More · Sign-up for Free
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 15



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy