Mark Bouris The Sunday Telegraph January 15, 2012 12:00AM
As the year gets going we can expect different predictions from various commentators about the prospects of the residential property markets. Usually, real estate agents claim that there’s a buzz in the auctions and the buyers are back, while economists claim that Australian property is still over-valued.
What is actually happening with residential property?
In the past five years the prices paid for Australian property have looked like a sideways ‘S’ snaking along the graph. According to RP Data-Rismark research released two weeks ago, property peaked in May 2007 when it was growing at 4.0 per cent per year, but by early 2008, property value growth had hit zero and was heading south to -1. and -1.5 per cent, where it stayed in negative territory for a year.
Prices recovered in 2009, and from mid-09 to mid-2010 prices growth was almost back to where it had been in May 07; not quite 4.0 per cent but over 3.5. However, since the end of ’09, Australian property has dipped and in the year to November 2011, prices were negative again. It hasn’t been a happy or predictable time but I believe 2012 will see a comeback from property.
When it comes to property investment, there are just three words to live by: Do your homework. Since the beginning of the global financial crisis and the over inflation of the property market, the financial mantra “safe as houses”, so long associated with real estate investment, is no longer considered a given with investors.
But paying attention to medium and long term predictions from property analysts could pay off. In his July to November 2008 Queensland property “hotspot” list, property analyst Terry Ryder named Bargara, Deception Bay and Wynnum among his top 10 areas to watch. At the time, those areas, in a list that also included Beerwah, Hervey Bay and Ipswich, appeared surprising.
Three and a half years later, real estate agents are reporting an improvement.
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).
Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
To get the more accurate figure shadow,you need to deduct 10% for all the years you mentioned. I doubt you will ever see 1 mill median in your lifetime.
As far as my predictions go for the year, and seeing nobody has dug out my 2011 prediction which gave percentages for each capital city, i will not bother thinking about each capital but will just say that all capitals will decrease more than they did in 2011.
To get the more accurate figure shadow,you need to deduct 10% for all the years you mentioned. I doubt you will ever see 1 mill median in your lifetime.
So your prediction is for a Sydney median house price approaching $400K by 2015.
OK, I guess we'll see who was closer in 4 years time.
So your prediction is for a Sydney median house price approaching $400K by 2015.
OK, I guess we'll see who was closer in 4 years time.
I would be more than happy to place money on it preferably for a childrens charity but firstly I doubt you pay up and secondly I doubt you will be able to afford it by then.if this could be worked out suggestions welcome.
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).
Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
And might as well put in a reminder that this refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
nope. you have had 3 versions of that 1 original prediction.
BTW, 'By a date or time means it will happen before that date begins".
I will be at our meeting by 10 o'clock does not mean I will meet you sometime between 10 and 11 o'clock.
You seem keen to give yourself an extra year with your squirming as well as ramping down your amount from 1M to 975k to 966k... what next ? 900k by 2017 ?
thats ok, we all know you know your original prediction was too much and have quietly modified it down ever since... :hug:
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy