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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,436 Views)
Wisebear
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BubbleBoy
13 Jan 2012, 12:49 AM
So please give it a rest.
I agree but you must understand that Frank struggles to express himself with words and needs to resort to a more basic method of communication.
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Your house: Is it over-valued?

Mark Bouris
The Sunday Telegraph
January 15, 2012 12:00AM

As the year gets going we can expect different predictions from various commentators about the prospects of the residential property markets. Usually, real estate agents claim that there’s a buzz in the auctions and the buyers are back, while economists claim that Australian property is still over-valued.

What is actually happening with residential property?

In the past five years the prices paid for Australian property have looked like a sideways ‘S’ snaking along the graph. According to RP Data-Rismark research released two weeks ago, property peaked in May 2007 when it was growing at 4.0 per cent per year, but by early 2008, property value growth had hit zero and was heading south to -1. and -1.5 per cent, where it stayed in negative territory for a year.

Prices recovered in 2009, and from mid-09 to mid-2010 prices growth was almost back to where it had been in May 07; not quite 4.0 per cent but over 3.5. However, since the end of ’09, Australian property has dipped and in the year to November 2011, prices were negative again. It hasn’t been a happy or predictable time but I believe 2012 will see a comeback from property.

Read more: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/money/your-house-is-it-over-valued/story-e6frezc0-1226242559994
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Elastic
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"It hasn’t been a happy or predictable time but I believe 2012 will see a comeback from property."

Pretty tired of spruikers who paint falling house prices as being a bad thing.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Property prediction versus realisation

Amy Remeikis
February 1, 2012 - 6:51AM

When it comes to property investment, there are just three words to live by: Do your homework. Since the beginning of the global financial crisis and the over inflation of the property market, the financial mantra “safe as houses”, so long associated with real estate investment, is no longer considered a given with investors.

But paying attention to medium and long term predictions from property analysts could pay off. In his July to November 2008 Queensland property “hotspot” list, property analyst Terry Ryder named Bargara, Deception Bay and Wynnum among his top 10 areas to watch. At the time, those areas, in a list that also included Beerwah, Hervey Bay and Ipswich, appeared surprising.

Three and a half years later, real estate agents are reporting an improvement.

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/property/property-prediction-versus-realisation-20120130-1qpht.html#ixzz1l8FxUq6W
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Rastus2
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For historic records:

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8289452&t=8961158

Shadow's prediciton

Version 1:

Sydney house prices will hit 1M by 2015

Version 2:

Sydney house prices will hit 975k by June 2015

Version 3:
Sydney house prices will hit 966k by the end of 2015.



Sydney house prices will not hit $1M before 2015, and I have never claimed they will.
link

lol
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 12:44 AM
For historic records:

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8289452&t=8961158

Shadow's prediciton

Version 1:

Sydney house prices will hit 1M by 2015
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).

Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

And might as well put in a reminder that this refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 08:19 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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dave289
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 07:59 AM
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).

Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
To get the more accurate figure shadow,you need to deduct 10% for all the years you mentioned. I doubt you will ever see 1 mill median in your lifetime.

As far as my predictions go for the year, and seeing nobody has dug out my 2011 prediction which gave percentages for each capital city, i will not bother thinking about each capital but will just say that all capitals will decrease more than they did in 2011.
Edited by dave289, 2 Feb 2012, 08:24 AM.
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Shadow
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dave289
2 Feb 2012, 08:14 AM
To get the more accurate figure shadow,you need to deduct 10% for all the years you mentioned. I doubt you will ever see 1 mill median in your lifetime.
So your prediction is for a Sydney median house price approaching $400K by 2015.

OK, I guess we'll see who was closer in 4 years time.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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dave289
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 08:17 AM
So your prediction is for a Sydney median house price approaching $400K by 2015.

OK, I guess we'll see who was closer in 4 years time.
I would be more than happy to place money on it preferably for a childrens charity but firstly I doubt you pay up and secondly I doubt you will be able to afford it by then.if this could be worked out suggestions welcome.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 07:59 AM
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).

Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

And might as well put in a reminder that this refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.

nope. you have had 3 versions of that 1 original prediction.

BTW, 'By a date or time means it will happen before that date begins".

I will be at our meeting by 10 o'clock does not mean I will meet you sometime between 10 and 11 o'clock.

You seem keen to give yourself an extra year with your squirming as well as ramping down your amount from 1M to 975k to 966k... what next ? 900k by 2017 ?

thats ok, we all know you know your original prediction was too much and have quietly modified it down ever since... :hug:
Edited by Rastus2, 2 Feb 2012, 08:41 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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